29/10/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Victoria Derby day

One of the better days on the racing calendar is Derby Day at Flemington and the 2022 edition rolls around this Saturday. The weather forcast is for showers, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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12 Pungo (Bet Now: $2.90) could well be a moral here. Chris Waller loves to target this race with a progressive horse and Pungo is certainly. He’s had two career outings, debuting with a very strong effort at Rosehill before ridden more forward at Warwick Farm and he beat up an average lot, but ran good time in doing so. He’s the one on the up that I can see reaching better levels than this. Keen.

1 Tijuana (Bet Now: $4.60) is the map horse and has the strong form. He was there to win the Caulfield Guineas last time but just couldn’t quite finish it off but was far from disgraced when a close up fifth to Golden Mile. Gets a soft run from the inside gate and should be around the mark.

3 Liberty Steps (Bet Now: $17.00) is sneaky flying for Team Hayes. He has had two runs back from a spell. Caught the eye against the pattern at The Valley on Moir night before going to the Gothic where he was again good from the back. If he is able to settle closer in the run, he’ll take beating.

5 Warning (Bet Now: $7.50) is sneaky flying I think for Team Freedman. Just needed the run fresh behind Regal Lion at Sandown before going to the Craven Plate and I reallly liked the way he found the line late in the piece without threatening behind Cascadian. Proven performer at the track/distance, has upside and a sense of timing.

1 Alegron (Bet Now: $4.80) is using this to tune up for Tuesday but he has a fair bit on these re class. Just depends how hard they are going to try. On paper, it was just a run in the Caulfield Cup, but he got a mile out of his ground and was pretty much never a factor. This is much, much weaker. Hard to beat.

3 Chapada (Bet Now: $9.00) has a good record at Flemington and is dangerous in a thin race like this. He too ran in the Caulfield Cup and he wasn’t beaten far I thought, far from disgraced, and was slightly held up. He’s not going too bad and is one for multiples.

If he handles the straight course, I am quite keen on 8 Triple Missile (Bet Now: $4.80). He ran behind Gravina in the Caulfield Village and he was enormous in defeat. Bombed the start and was back last in the run but was outstanding late when a close up fourth. If he’s within range, he has the change up speed to do a number on these. Like him a lot.

6 Gravina (Bet Now: $7.00) has found winning form…can he hold it? He ran in the Caulfield Village last time where he had the suck run in behind. Just a matter of getting clear air and for a few strides, it didn’t look like he would get it, but he eventually did and dashed late to win. He’s hard to catch, but his best is good enough to win this.

5 General Beau (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Group l performer at his best so I think he commands respect. He resumed in the Schillaci where he was near the speed throughout and battled on really well in defeat when fourth to Paulele, beaten 2.5L. Good second up record, he’s in with a shout at a price.

2 Pavitra (Bet Now: $7.00) looks a filly of some promise for Team Freedman. Far from disgraced in the Flight two back behind Zougotcha before going to the Ethereal two weeks ago where she led and battled on really well behind Renaissance Woman. I reckon if they let her roll on speed and get them chasing, she’ll take running down.

13 Whispering Lady (Bet Now: $21.00) is right in the mix. A maiden after three starts, but she has talent. Somewhat lost sight of the bunny in the Ethereal but she kept finding the line in a good effort. 2000m at Flemington looks ideal for her and if she can settle closer in the run, she’ll be dangerous.

3 So Dazzling (Bet Now: $6.50) is a filly I am not dismissing. She has already earned her spot in the Oaks so this just cleans out the cobwebs. She ran at Newcastle last time and to the eye, she was poor, but I think a break between runs and staying at 1800m was a poor set up in hindsight. This’ll top her off for the Oaks and she is in the right camp.

8 Old Flame (Bet Now: $4.50) gets another look for me in the get out. Few weeks between runs after racing in the Weekend Hussler and I thought Jamie Kah was asleep on the horse. Was in the dream spot but as soon as you had that thought, he was back near last and lost all hope. Prior form was strong, so giving him another chance.

1 Sinawann (Bet Now: $11.00) is back on track I feel. He wasn’t too bad in the Sandown Stakes behind Gentleman Roy before going to the Moonga at Caulfield and I thought he closed the race off very well when a narrow fourth to Aegon. Flemington 1400m looks ideal and hopefully the track isn’t too bad re give in it.

9 Wild Planet (Bet Now: $21.00) is certainly capable with his best. He was solid without being spectacular fresh in the Gilgai behind Private Eye. He then went to the Moonga and was good late without threatening behind Aegon, beaten just over four lengths. Hard fit now and if he can settle closer in the run, his best is good enough.

The best horse in the race at 1200m, IMO, is 15 In Secret (Bet Now: $3.30). Has been kept on ice for this race after the Golden Rose where she was hailed as the winner but was nabbed on the peg by Jacquinot. Jumped out here last week and wasn’t asked to do much, getting a look at the straight course. She has the brilliance and fresh legs.

7 Grand Impact (Bet Now: $9.50) is a colt I have plenty of time for. Price/Kent trains this guy, who resumed in the Blue Sapphire where he was on speed throughout and absolutely trucking. Clicked up and he was never getting beat in a somewhat arrogant return I thought. Completely different gravy here, but he reminds me of Flying Artie. He doesn’t have the fanfare of the stablemate, in this case Jacquinot, but he has a very good engine under the hood.

8 Economics (Bet Now: $16.00) looks a smart colt for Annabel Neasham. He resumed a few weeks ago in the Heritage and albeit he wasn’t up against much, he spanked them and asserted himself as a potential Coolmore Stud horse. If he can stretch the brilliance to six furlongs here and do it successfully, they’re cooking with gas, and is a live threat.

I think 1 Sharp N Smart (Bet Now: $3.40) will take plenty of beating. He was a superb winner of the Spring Champion last Saturday after sitting wide no cover for the trip. He just kept finding under pressure and surged hard the final few strides to get up and win. He’ll eat up 2500m, hard fit, J Mac on…he’s one of the leading chances.

5 Pericles (Bet Now: $7.00) could be a star. He was unbelievable against the pattern at Randwick two back over 1400m. He then went to the Vase last Saturday, straight to 2000m, and he ran a beauty on speed when nabbed late by Berkeley Square. Has the better set up now and stable is absolutely flying.

7 Manzoice (Bet Now: $20.00) is a knockout chance. He had an ordinary set up leading into the Spring Champion and I actually thought he found the line very well from the back behind Sharp N Smart. I do think the seven day back up and the rise to 2500m will suit and he has the Waller polish.

Gee I think 12 Yearning (Bet Now: $13.00) is going to run a big race. Team Hawkes trained mare that has had two runs back from a spell, both coming over 1400m here. Close up third to Kissonallforcheeks in the let’s Elope before going to the Rose Of Kingston where she just found staying at 1400m a negative. Now gets to her ideal trip and thought she moved quite nicely in a tick over jumpout here last week.

Just how good is 14 La Crique? (Bet Now: $2.20) They could have easily gone towards the Golden Eagle with this Kiwi mare but connections want to prove herself at Group l level in Australia and she finds such an ideal race on paper. These Australian Mares, they take their turns winning. Is it time for a NZ mare to have her turn? She’s a last start Group l winner in NZ and does get J Mac. The knocks are the price, it’s too short IMO and I question her form overall. It looks awful over there, but the Kiwis have had a fab Melbourne Spring so I can’t totally pen her.

20 Cliff’s Art (Bet Now: $71.00) is flying for Matty Smith. Ran in the Tristarc last start at Caulfield where she got a mile out of her ground but was very good late in the piece behind Chain Of Lightning. Love the rise to the mile for her and if she’s within range on the turn, she can take this out.

I think you have to take a chance with 10 Isotope (Bet Now: $11.00) because she’ll just win if she’s ready to go. Two runs earlier in the Spring, she had excuses each time and the efforts were okay given the circumstances. Freshened up for this race and she went like a jet in a jumpout here last week. Each way all day.

Have to give respect to 2 Asfoora (Bet Now: $3.20). Luckless on Moir night at The Valley but with beautiful placement by Henry Dwyer, he found the Caulfield Sprint at Group ll level, got a soft lead and spanked her rivals in an awesome display. Back to Mares grade, racing style, she’ll take running down.

14 Rose Quartz (Bet Now: $20.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order. She was kept quite safe in betting when resuming over 955m at The Valley and was quite good against the pattern behind Wolflands in a strong return. Like her up to 1100m on the bigger track and is a key threat.

BEST BET: Race One Number 12 Pungo

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Sharp N Smart

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 10 Isotope

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 7, 8, 15

Leg Two: 1, 5

Leg Three: 5, 12, 14, 16, 20

Leg Four: 2, 9, 10, 14

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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