29/8/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, San Domenico Stakes day

A strong nine race card has been assembled for Rosehill on Saturday where it is San Domenico Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is Good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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The old saying of forgiving a horse for one poor run. 3 Dancing Gidget (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS) put together a couple of really sharp wins to start the prep prior to racing a few weeks back at Rosehill where she was awful behind Montefelia, but post race was slow to recover, so there were excuses. Off her wins prior, she’s hard to beat, but can you forgive last start? I am.

9 Vitesse (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is racing well at this level for Chris Waller. Ran over 1400m at Randwick two weeks ago when really well backed given she had hard fitness over the fav All Saint’s Eve. Looked the winner, but the class of the other mare kicked in late and nabbed her on the peg in a close and somewhat deceptive finish. Handles dry ground, hard fit and in form.

2 Vegas Jewel (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is a big watch here. Formerly with Mark Kavanagh but is now with Chris Waller. This time last year, she was racing so well, so much so she ran a close up second in the Wakeful and far from disgraced in the VRC Oaks. Didn’t really fire a shot in the Autumn, but now has the Chris Waller polish, so watch the market.

This is, overall, a bludger of a Highway. I think the one with upside and progression is 9 Casino Kid (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS). Let down powerfully to win two back in a Wellington maiden before stepping up to 1280m at Muswellbrook on a near bottomless track and found the line really well, albeit beaten three lengths into second. Like the booking of McEvoy and the rise to 1400m is a tick.

1 Yulong Base (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) is a Cody Morgan trained gelding who is up and going. Has had three runs for the stable, winning two back in the Big Maiden during the Grafton Carnival before a close up second at Tamworth. Tick over trial was pretty good. He’s a bit quirky this guy but does have a decent engine under the hood.

5 Scarleo (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1400m on firmer footing. Resumed over 1200m at Goulburn on what was officially rated a Heavy 9 but on times, it raced more like a Heavy 10. He wasn’t really suited in the conditions but ran through the pain barrier and surged hard late to just miss out on the win. Does no work from the gate and is a knockout chance for a stable that is in a purple patch.

10 Papal Warrior (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) is bursting to win a race and he gets another great chance here. Three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where he was there to win, but bumped into a pretty good one in Montefelia. I think a firmer deck will be okay for him, he’s hard fit, racing well…just needs a win next to his name.

The seven day back up from Randwick to Rosehill has been a proven formula for 7 Orcein (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) so I’m including him. Ran last Saturday at Randwick and was far from disgraced in defeat against the race shape, with Frosty Rocks dominating from the front. Saves his best for Rosehill and can bounce back here.

9 Nicochet (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) isn’t far off a win for Jason Coyle. Comes through the Not Feint Hearted race from a fortnight back at Randwick and he was a little unlucky not to finish closer. Touch held up when appearing to have something to offer but found the line strongly late. Extra 100m looks ideal and has got upside to come.

Looks pretty straight forward here with the Kris Lees trained 1 Korcho (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS), who might be heading down the provincial cup path. Put together a couple of sharp wins on testing ground before being freshened up for the Spring. Finds a really winnable race yet again and his tick over trial was very good to the eye.

3 Word For Word (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is racing super for Chris Waller although tends to save her best for Randwick when the track has give in it. But in saying that, ran over 1500m at Rosehill three weeks ago and chased very strongly throughout in the straight, but found one better, just, in New King. She’s hard fit, holding her form really well, and I think a rise in trip suits.

7 Pressure (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) has the upside to come and stable is starting to find some form. Is suited up to 2000m and onto a dry deck is a big, big tick for this former Victorian mare, who looked the winner last Wednesday at Canterbury but couldn’t quite get there and had to settle for a narrow second to Itz Lily. Hard to beat here I feel.

I think this race will be a real guide as to how good 3 Anders (Bet Now: $3.20) is? IMO, I hope Aquis are realistic and treat him as a sprinter and not as a 1400m/Golden Rose horse. He has sustained speed, and that will see him win plenty of races, potentially a Coolmore Stud later in the Spring. Gave them a spanking in the Rosebud three weeks and does appear to have a real liking for this track/distance.

Well we just don’t know how good 5 Peltzer (Bet Now: $3.70) is. The times are there to suggest he’s top shelf, the form around him says that as well and his racing style will win him plenty of races, as seen during the latter part of the Autumn. I loved his trial win last Tuesday and if he runs up what he has produced so far to date, he’ll take a power of beating.

2 Doubtland (Bet Now: $4.20) looks to ooze class for Team Hawkes but is somewhat down the Golden Rose pecking order for now after North Pacific and what he has produced this time in. The form around him doesn’t read great, but he looked very good in putting them away and has trialled well in readiness. Market watch for sure.

12 Destination (Bet Now: $6.00) for me in a tricky race. James Cummings trained colt that looks to be just that level or two below Stakes company, so think this is good placement. He ran on that very testing Randwick track two weeks ago in what was a fast run race and battled away pretty well in defeat behind Twice As Special. Back on firmer footing, can bounce back.

Third up from a break, 1 Black Magnum (Bet Now: $6.50) should be hard fit, ready to go, and I think this is D-Day for him. Luckless resumption on the Kenso track behind Spaceboy before racing at Randwick a few weeks ago and I think you have to mark him down as disappointing behind Inanup. His best is good enough. Just want to see him do it.

Good little test here for 6 Bothered (Bet Now: $8.50) but this former Kiwi has done nothing wrong in two Australian runs for Clare Cunningham, the latest coming at Warwick Farm and I loved the way she toughed it out on speed when too good for Redoute’s Image, who was far from disgraced in the Silver Shadow last Saturday, so the form reads well.

I’m very wary of 4 Overlord (Bet Now: $2.60) for the Chris Waller stable. Looking back at his opening prep during the Winter, it was outstanding in hindsight with a couple of placings behind Peltzer before an excellent fourth in the JJ Atkins. Given a quiet trial behind Fasika to get ready and he does have the form on the board to be hard to beat.

2 Aim (Bet Now: $7.00) is a big improver here. Got the quality to measure up to these for sure. Forget he went around at Canterbury last Wednesday. Was eased back to last from the wide gate and the first three out were the first three home, so he was no hope. Much better suited on a bigger track, up to 1400m and back to his own age.

7 Achiever (Bet Now: $7.50) is a definite yard/market watch. Chris Waller trained colt that comes here off the back of mini spell, having not raced since bolting up at Randwick in early June on what was a very testing track. Has been given two trials to get ready, each time not wearing blinkers, which did switch him on towards the end of last prep. 1400m fresh I do like for him.

Hard to get away from 3 Mugatoo (Bet Now: $2.20). Classy import that was simply too good for them when resuming with a Winter Challenge win several weeks ago, showing some real arrogance and authority late in beating them up. He’s got more to come. If there is a knock, it is the break between runs, but a tick over trial win was very good.

2 Taikomochi (Bet Now: $9.50) is a tough, tough on speed galloper for the WaterBott team that won the Prelude to this race at Randwick two weeks ago. Led throughout, got complete control and was able to kick on strongly and get the job done. Should get a good run near the speed once again and extra 100m is fine.

The more this track can dry out, the more I warm to 9 Grey Lion (Bet Now: $20.00) as a knockout. I’d almost say put a line through his three runs this time in, but I do want to mention his last start effort behind Taikomochi on a testing track. He stuck to the task really well and closed off like a horse ready to win. If this track can dry out, he could well win this at a price.

If this track is dry, 14 Tenley (Bet Now: $11.00) I think is worth a speck at odds. IMO, she’s nowhere near as effective when racing anti clockwise and hates wet ground. So, breaking that down in her career, the times she has raced on dry ground racing clockwise, it reads four starts for three wins, including a Group ll win, so that’s the quality she can produce, and this isn’t a strong race at all.

7 Prime Candidate (Bet Now: $4.60) is not far off a win for Bjorn Baker. Looked like it be a win over 1300m at Rosehill a few weeks ago but he couldn’t quite finish it off late and had to settle for a third to Poetic Charmer. The drop off the last 200m from the 400-200m split was just under six lengths so was that the wet track, or didn’t he run out 1300m? This run will be the guide.

The best version of 12 Spiritual Pursuit (Bet Now: $19.00) is capable but gee she can be hard to trust. Bombed the start when resuming at Randwick and that sealed her fate, but I actually thought she did a pretty good job to close off like she did behind Varda. Tick over trial was good and though I prefer her on genuine wet ground, she should be fine on this kind of track.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 Mugatoo

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 4 Overlord

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 14 Tenley

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 12

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 1, 7, 8, 12, 14

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