29/7/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Bletchingly Stakes day

A strong card of racing has been set down for Caulfield this Saturday, with the feature clearly being the Bletchingly Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

3 Sullivan Bay (Bet Now: $3.40) is a consistent mare for the Hayes/Dabernig team who is never far away from the action. She ran in a similar race here a fortnight back where Parish controlled things nicely on speed and kicked strongly but just no match for Forgeress. That mare is a bit unreliable whereas this one is. Only reason she gets the nod.

2 Forgeress (Bet Now: $4.80) is a definite contender here but she’d nearly be a moral if we got a heavy track. That is what she is known as but she sort of threw that out the window here two weeks back on a firm surface when sitting near the speed and outgunning Sullivan Bay for the win. Ticks a few boxes here, has upside and the forecast is for rain.

1 Rocket Commander (Bet Now: $4.40) is a quality mare that resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig stable. This mare does have the class edge on these and can pull out a run fresh. Jump outs have been quite encouraging and with Autumn efforts behind the likes of Hooked and Zanbagh, gee that reads well.

8 Kiwia…(Bet Now: $1.85) well dear me. It was just an utter nightmare if you backed him here a fortnight back. Quite frankly, he should have bolted in but just had no luck in the straight when appearing to be bolting. The rise to 2400m is perfect and though he rises in grade here, the depth of the field is pretty thin.

I think back to 2400m on a little freshen up should really suit 1 Charlevoix (Bet Now: $4.00). Hayes/Dabernig trained stayer who hasn’t quite seen out the 2500m/2600m at Flemington in recent times. Efforts have been sound but just hasn’t attacked the line. I think he can here, even with the weight.

4 Benall (Bet Now: $18.00) is such an interesting runner here for mine. He is first up since late May, at 2400m, off the back of a trial win, albeit he won by 12 lengths and was impressive. The key to him is that last start he ran second to Charlevoix at Cranbourne and his effort that night was enormous. Definite market watch.

7 Olympic Lad (Bet Now: $28.00) for me here. Hayes/Dabernig trained colt who hasn’t raced for four weeks since racing at the 1200m here where he got a mile back off the pace but worked home with real purpose to run fourth to Lone Eagle. Up to 1400m is perfect, he has upside and this race does look a big thin depth wise.

6 Confluence (Bet Now: $19.00) is a handy colt for the Ellerton/Zahra team who is still a maiden after three outings but hasn’t been far away. He ran on a heavy Bendigo track on July 7 and chased hard all the way when second to Octabello. On that effort, he should get the 1400m here and he appears to map well.

5 Sheer Madness (Bet Now: $10.00) could well represent some value here. He resumed over 1200m here two weeks ago where he flopped out the back to near last and while he didn’t get the greatest amount of luck in the straight, I thought his effort was very good behind I Did It Again. Looking for the 1400m, which he gets here and if he gets clear running, he can threaten.

Taking the chance on 1 Oberland (Bet Now: $7.50). Former Queenslander making his Victorian debut for the Weir camp and he does come here with some strong form next to his name from the sunshine state. Jump outs have been quite encouraging and he is lethal when produced fresh. Happy to be with him.

4 Kabrocco (Bet Now: $7.00) was a horrible watch for those who took the shorts on the gelding last Friday at Geelong. He was absolutely bolting in the run but pilot error saw him badly held up and really only got clear final 50m when savaging the line. Only needs better luck to go close here.

13 Saint Valorem (Bet Now: $9.00) is a talented galloper for the Cameron Templeton yard who did a really good job fresh last Wednesday at Sandown. Made up nice ground in restricted room and did a bit wrong himself behind Gun Case. With better racing manners and a drag into the race, he can win this for sure.

7 Kipe (Bet Now: $18.00) is a progressive staying gelding for the Patrick Payne who has earned a shot in town after a dominant win over the mile at Donald last time out where Jarrod Fry found the best ground out wide and he let down powerfully late. Looks a stayer of promise and I’m confident he can measure up.

4 Spanish Reef (Bet Now: $3.50) is a tough and gritty mare for the Ken Keys yard who looks ready to tackle the 2000m. She scored a tough win at Sandown two back before going to the Rivette Final at Flemington where she was under pressure and looked as if Ruby Sea was going to go past her, but she kept finding and ended up drawing clear, telling me that the ten furlongs will be no issue.

9 Penthouse Kitten (Bet Now: $15.00) is a talented filly who deserves another crack in town. She was well backed late last time out on the Pakenham Synthetic where she looked disinterested for the most part and was going to run last, then all of a sudden she picked up the bit, surged hard late near the inside and dashed away. She ran well in the St Leger, so 2000m is certainly no issue.

11 Honey Magic (Bet Now: $41.00) rises a fair bit in grade/depth but I think as an each way bet, she’ll do me fine. Took on the older horses last time out at Donald where she was ridden a treat by Jarrod Fry, finding the best ground out wide and finishing best to win, beating the old girl Rain Fast, who ran well on the Parks track recently, so the form reads okay. Fast run 1200m will suit her pattern nicely.

5 If Not Now When (Bet Now: $4.80) is a talented filly for Henry Dwyer who looks a leading threat here. Could not have been ridden better when racing here a fortnight back. Given every chance off the pace and loomed large to win but just didn’t quite attack the line when third to Moonlites Choice. With a cold ride and having last say, she can attack the line.

14 Sweet Perfume (Bet Now: $14.00) is an up and coming filly that resumes for the Clinton McDonald camp. This filly did okay last time in at the provincials and showed signs that she could get to this level with time. That time comes first up, but her jump outs have been encouraging and she is on her home track.

If 3 Revolving Door (Bet Now: $2.30) has overcome that gutbuster from a fortnight back, he pretty much takes care of this lot. He did an enormous job here considering he was wide no cover throughout on a good speed and chased hard all the way but couldn’t hold out Nikitas. Draws better, Zahra back on…keen.

2 Nikitas (Bet Now: $7.50) is rejuvenated colt since coming to the Weir camp. He ran at this track/distance a fortnight back where he was given a lovely ride by Ben Allen and presented at the right to score a narrow but impressive win. Things fell into place there, so he’ll have to work a bit to get the win here, but I think he is a capable.

12 Tres (Bet Now: $21.00)  isn’t the most reliable filly in racing but I think from a soft draw here she can figure. She ran over 1400m at Sandown a couple of Wednesdays back and made up nice ground late behind the tearaway leader/winner Miss Magda. Draws to sit much closer in the run and Beau Mertens steers.

10 Chocolate Holic (Bet Now: $12.00) is the most interesting runner for me right across Australia. I said on Twitter that this horse could be the best WA horse Darren Weir will saddle up, and that is including Black Heart Bart. Before he left WA, he trialled brilliantly, better than Scales Of Justice, a high class WA horse himself. 1200m is short of his best, but he is a big watch.

7 Supido (Bet Now: $3.40) was prohibitive odds when resuming in the Monash given his class edge and the way he looked in a Cranbourne jump out. There were a few nervous moments for those that took the shorts but once he got clear air, it was all over. He should have some upside left and is an obvious threat. Do I want to take red figures? No.

Knockout chance here is 11 Santa Ana Lane (Bet Now: $10.00). He is a quality sprinter that resumes for Team Freedman after a very good Summer/Autumn campaign, which included an unlucky run in the Goodwood, a race that Supido ran so well in last year. Recent Flemington jump out was outstanding and he appears to have come back in super order.

3 Black Sheep (Bet Now: $12.00) is a talented gelding for the Daren Weir yard who resumed over 1400m here several weeks weeks back and though he never really threatened, he stuck to the task really well in defeat behind Nesbo. Got a really good record at this trip and second up last time in he came with a brilliant burst to win at Echuca in a strong race.

16 Galaxy Raider (Bet Now: $4.20) is a pest for all concerned. He has a stack of ability but he can never quite put it all together, and that was the case again at the midweeks at Sandown where he got a mile back in the run yet savaged the line to just miss. Up to 1700m looks perfect and he only has to be within a few lengths of them on the turn to be a real threat.

15 Hardern (Bet Now: $14.00) was first up in the Orient Line race over 1400m here a fortnight back and there was a bit of support to suggest he’d run well and that is what he did when sticking on gamely to run fifth. He is a second up, he likes Caulfield and up to 1700m is ideal. I’d be throwing him in exotics for sure.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 10 Chocolate Holic

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 8 Kiwia

VALUE: Race Nine Number 3 Black Sheep

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 5, 8, 11, 12, 14

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 6, 12

Leg Three: 7, 10, 11

Leg Four: 3, 5, 11, 15, 16

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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