3/10/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Turnbull Stakes day

Group l racing returns to Flemington on Saturday where it is Turnbull Stakes Day, with the 2000m feature going to be a real guide towards the major races in a few weeks. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

Turnbull Stakes 🏆: View the Field for the Turnbull Stakes

The Bart Cummings 🏆: View the Field for The Bart Cummings

Gilgai Stakes 🏆: View the Field for the Gilgai Stakes

He looks a pretty sharp conveyance 1 General Beau (Bet Now: $1.90 TOP ODDS) and with race experience as well, he is the pony for me. Debuted here last Wednesday and was a real pro from near the speed, drawing clear late to win well. Ran great splits, albeit it was a 900m scamper so a bit flattered somewhat, but he looks a sharp one that will be fine at 1000m.

The key chances are dropping like flies here. 8 Vinlago (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) looks the next best, but a fair way off General Beau IMO. I Am Invincible trained colt for Robbie Griffiths that has jumped out well in readiness for start one and the case usually every year is during the warmer months, the stable does fire, so he’s a market watch.

9 Cloudy (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a big watch here. Daughter of Frosted for James Cummings that is on debut off the back of one jumpout, which came down the straight here last Friday and gee she looked to move sweetly near the speed when winning her jumpout with something in hand. Keen to see how she goes at start one.

The Cap D’Antibes looks a race that will produce a flood of winners given they absolutely smashed the clock, and with upside to come, 8 September Run (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) is the pony for me. She absolutely smashed the clock when winning that race and was dominant on the line. Think she’s a filly who could be a sleeper for the Coolmore and with that in mind, she can win another Stakes race.

2 Valaquenta (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a son of Street Boss for James Cummings that resumed over 1000m at Caulfield two weeks ago and I think he goes close to winning had he not been in a battle with Portland Sky. Olly was trying to keep that horse in a pocket but while that was happening, eventual winner Muntaseera had all the momentum and finished best, just. Fitter, extra ground, home track, hard to beat.

Contender or pretender time for 1 Wisdom Of Water (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS). Looked very promising when with Team Edmonds but gee he was plain first up in the Danehill, his first run for the Price/Kent stable. Was near the front of the pack, keen, and really found nothing when asked. His best is good enough but this is a race he needs to stand up in.

I’m guessing because you don’t know until they race, but potentially, it could be thank you linesmen and thank you ball boys when it comes to 8 Munitions (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS), a former French galloper making his Australian debut for James Cummings. His form from when racing in France has panels on what he faces here, his two jumpouts have been strong and Olly, who has ridden in both jumpouts, rides on raceday. I’m hoping he’s missed in betting.

10 Fascino (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) looks to have returned in good order for the Maher/Eustace camp. Resumed over 1400m at Caulfield two weeks ago and it was pretty much a barrier trial. Got back near last in the run and wasn’t really clear at any stage until very late when good to the line and through it. Does she want a rise in trip? Is she sharp enough to beat these? Time will tell.

5 Iconoclasm (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is a knockout chance. I want to be forgiving of his two runs back from a break. Resumed and was outclassed in the Memsie behind Behemoth before racing at this track/distance where the track had that little bit of cushion in it and he’s a horse who needs it bone dry, so forgive and forget. Think he deserves another chance.

I think 6 Santa Ana Lane (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) is ready to rock and roll here to make a statement and secure an Everest slot. Somewhat mixed Autumn campaign, but was plagued by wet tracks and bias that went against him. He’s been given a good break and has had three jumpouts to get ready, whereas last prep he had one trial and one jumpout, so I reckon he’s ready to go.

4 Tofane (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) has earned herself an Everest slot so this will clean the cobwebs before the big dance in two weeks time. She resumed in the Bobbie Lewis and I thought was a pass mark in defeat behind Zoutori given she’s not really a noted fresh performer. She’s a mare who gets better as the prep goes on so this will tune her right up.

2 Zoutori (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a straight track specialist for the Ellerton/Zahra camp that is three weeks between runs since producing a sharp finale nearer the inside section of the pack to get up and win the Bobbie Lewis. Tends to save his best for the straight six and is potentially on track for a crack at the Darley Classic with a good showing here.

5 Succeed Indeed (Bet Now: $4.80) is a filly I have eyes on from an Oaks perspective, but I think she can take this out. Around a month between runs since bolting up over the mile at Sandown, freshened up afterwards with Spring targets in mind. Think she’ll love the Flemington mile and overall, the depth here isn’t strong, so she’ll do me.

11 Miss Guggenheim (Bet Now: $6.00) has upside and progression for the Price/Kent team. Resumed in a 1300m Geelong maiden when well backed late and under Olly, she surged hard late to get up and get the maiden win out of the way. Really well bred filly so any form of blacktype next to her name is vital. Think she’s got to be respected.

3 Queen Of Rocks (Bet Now: $11.00) is one that could be a sneaky Oaks horse. Not sure she’s sharp enough for the mile, but clearly should have won two weeks ago at Caulfield. Just badly held up at the wrong time behind tired runners before eventually getting clear and charging late. Should love getting to Flemington and I think could be one to keep an eye on from a Guineas perspective.

2 Shared Ambition (Bet Now: $4.60) is crying out for more ground and he gets it here. He comes through the Kingston Town from two weeks ago at Randwick where he took forever to wind up, but was really good late behind Taikomochi. His 2400m+ record is very good and stable have been keen to get him to the Melbourne Cup. A win here would secure that.

5 Lord Belvedere (Bet Now: $5.50) deserves a crack at this race. His 2400m+ record in Australia is outstanding, albeit he has contested races much weaker than this. In saying that, he is a winner and a line chaser, which was evident when he won here three weeks ago, edging out stablemate Persan in a driving go. Harder here, but has to be respected.

11 Admire Robson (Bet Now: $17.00) is the sleeper here. Paul Preusker trained former Japanese galloper that made his Australian debut over 2040m at the Valley and was a real eye catcher late behind Creedence, clocking the best last 200m of the race. Has won up to 2400m in Japan, so the 2500m here should be fine and he’s got more upside than most.

7 King Of Leogrance (Bet Now: $17.00) is the most interesting runner of the weekend. I’ve got a ticket for him for the Melbourne Cup so I’m very keen to see him resume against some quality horse flesh and likely rivals for the big dance in November. Hasn’t raced since the Andrew Ramsden where he had to lump 58.5kg and was pipped late by Oceanex. No jumpouts, but he’s a bomb fresh horse and oozes class.

9 Verry Eleegant (Bet Now: $5.00) would love a bit of cushion in the track but the big thing going for her is the rise to 2000m. That’s how she raced when a beaten favourite in the George Main two weeks ago. Held up and checked a couple of times didn’t help either. Think she’s going super and should take a power of beating against these.

I’m really wary of 12 Finche (Bet Now: $6.50). Was on him at odds when he resumed in the Chelmsford and he was very good on speed when third to Mister Sea Wolf, chasing from a fair way out. Looks to be ticking along nicely towards the Melbourne Cup and was excellent in this race last year. Think he’s a leading contender.

I think you have to forgive a good horse for one poor run and the odds about for 1 Savatiano (Bet Now: $11.00) is crazy. Strong winner of the PB Lawrence first up, which meant she was going to start favourite in the Memsie but had a freak out before the race and was scratched. Then went to the Let’s Elope and on face value was plain, but putting that down to the set back. Blinkers go on to sharpen her up, should get across comfortably yet is $17+…madness. Great each way play.

6 Perfect Jewel (Bet Now: $4.60) is on the quick back up for the Williams camp after racing last Friday night in the Stocks Stakes at the Valley. She was put into the A1 spot under Pike and on the turn when she peeled, it was no betting, but she was no match for Mystic Journey, who found something near her best and was too good. Hard to beat I think against this lot.

3 Pretty Brazen (Bet Now: $6.50) looks one of the hardest to beat. Impressive winner of the Let’s Elope two back before backing up a week later in the Sir Rupert Clarke and she was outstanding in defeat when third to Behemoth. Back to Mares grade looks a big tick and 1400m does seem to be her sweet spot, so she’s hard to beat.

Best on the program and potentially across Australia for Saturday in the shape of 14 Young Werther (Bet Now: $3.80). His debut win over 1500m at Geelong was just outstanding. The last 200m was what impressed me, the way he really attacked the line and put the race to bed with something in hand. On his home track, will eat up 1800m and is a definite Derby contender. Think he’ll put these away.

4 Wise Counsel (Bet Now: $9.00) has upside/progression and has the Maher/Eustace polish so has to be respected. Not sure he beat a great deal two weeks ago at Caulfield but he was strong to the line in winning. Think this is a much harder assignment for him, but he is a horse on the up and does have winning form next to his name.

3 Alcyone (Bet Now: $7.00) has already got his Derby spot sealed having won the 1800m race towards the end of last season. He resumed in the Bill Stutt last Friday night and while he ran last, he was warming to the task late, so thought the run was a pass mark. Severely back in depth and up to 1800m, he can be a big improver here.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 14 Young Werther

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 5 Succeed Indeed

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 1 Savatiano

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 5, 11, 12

Leg Two: 3, 6, 7, 9, 12

Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6

Leg Four: 14

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful