3/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, VRC Oaks day

Cup Week at Flemington continues on Thursday with a nine race card, headlined by the Kennedy Oaks (2500m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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VRC Oaks 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the VRC Oaks

Gee there is some depth to this race. I’m keen each way on 12 Tahlequah (Bet Now: $6.50). She’s flying for the Price/Kent camp and Blinkers on I love. Both runs this time in have come at Pakenham on the Synthetic, really catching the eye fresh. Last start, she was a beaten odds on favourite, but she was back in a race where they walked, so she had no chance. Hard fit now up to 1700m, Blinkers, massive jockey upgrade, she’s the bet.

7 Matron Bullwinkel (Bet Now: $4.50) is the main threat. She resumed over 1400m on Geelong Cup Day where she got too far back in an on pace dominated affair but she was very good late behind Lafargue, clocking the best late splits of the race. J Mac on, she gets run of the race and is hard to beat.

Back in trip I like for 14 Cabaca (Bet Now: $12.00). Chris Waller trained filly that was on an Oaks path but she didn’t fire in the Ethereal so those plans were aborted. After a run like that, you’d assume she go for a spell but the fact they run here tells me she’s bounced from that run and is ready to go.

12 Empress Of Wonder (Bet Now: $5.00) is a daughter of Choisir for Annabel Neasham that debuts and she looks to go pretty good. Lone trial came at Warwick Farm a couple of weeks ago where she moved very well to the eye it seemed in winning and running solid time. Drawn to get clear air and has J Mac.

2 Charm Stone (Bet Now: $3.90) is one of the key threats. Price/Kent trained filly that debuted in the Maribyrnong Trial down the straight here when near the speed throughout and battled on quite strongly when third to Zulfiqar. Draws the right part of the track and has the race experience, which should hold her in good stead.

16 Tabata Set (Bet Now: $31.00) is a Maher/Eustace filly that is on debut. She trialled in early October on the Warwick Farm Poly where she led throughout and gave them a spanking with sustained speed coming to the fore. Jump/run type, which looks the ideal pattern for this kind of race.

12 Climbing Star (Bet Now: $5.00) is a filly with good talent for Phillip Stokes. Dominant debut win over 1200m at Cranbourne before going to the mile in the Fillies Classic on Cox Plate Day and that big jump in trip, inferior ground…run that race again and she wins I think. Has a better set up now, she gets C Wlliams, down in the weights…she’s the one for me.

8 Roots (Bet Now: $2.00) is flying for Chris Waller. Put together a couple of sharp wins at the Sydney midweeks before going to the Tesio on Cox Plate Day and she should have won. Just had to make her run in the worst ground and that beat her in the end when second to My Whisper. J Mac back on and with the mile run under the belt, she appeals big time.

Gary Portelli ran second in this race last year and he’s looking to go one beter here with 2 Arctic Thunder (Bet Now: $15.00). She ran in the Five Diamonds Prelude at Randwick where she got a cheap run on speed near Ellsberg but just didn’t have the class to go with them late. Blinkers come off and she gets J Kah to steer, so she is in with a shout because her best is good enough to be dangerous.

12 Grey River (Bet Now: $5.00) has returned in outstanding order for Jon O’Connor. Dominant maiden win fresh at Gawler but improved big time off that, giving them an absolute spanking on the Parks track a few weeks ago, looking like a Stakes class horse when winning by over seven lengths. Holds her form, she wins again.

11 Hell Hath No Fury (Bet Now: $12.00) looks hard to beat here for Danny O’Brien. She ran in the Jim Moloney at Sandwon and closed her race off well late, just missing out on the win when a close up third to Waltz On By. Dodged the Guineas to be saved for this race and I think that decision will pay off with forward showing here.

14 Razeta (Bet Now: $20.00) is a filly that I think has ability. Just looked in need of the run when resuming at Hawkesbury. Thrown somewhat in the deep end in the Reginald Allen and I thought found the line really well behind A Lot More Love. Hard fit now, I think she appeals.

9 Douceur (Bet Now: $11.00) on top in an even race. Patrick Payne trained mare that has had a couple of runs back from a break, the latest in the Tesio at The Valley where I’m not sure the mile at that track suited her but she was good late behind My Whisper. Hard fit now and up to 1800m on the bigger track, she appeals big time as an each way bet.

12 Saint Bathans (Bet Now: $4.20) is heading in the right direction and think he can win again. Lovely ride from Holland saw him win over the mile at Caulfield a few weeks ago. He lobbed into the 1/1 and wasn’t getting beat from a fair way out. Proven at this trip in NZ, 1800m is fine and has upside.

13 Shibli (Bet Now: $13.00) might want one more, but the return was encouraging. That came at Sandown on Underwood Day where he was warming to the task late in a good return behind Pascero. May want one more and third up at 2000m is his go, but I am not dismissing him off the fresh run, because it was good.

Why isn’t 5 Joyful Fortune (Bet Now: $3.80) a more dominant favourite? He showed first up he is an elite straight track horse. He was then thrown into the deep end in The Everest and really, given the heat on speed, he did a remarkable job to be beaten only just under five lengths. If that hasn’t busted him…surely he wins this.

3 Zoustyle (Bet Now: $3.50) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. He was indeed that in the Schillaci and tried his guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Paulele. Short course racing is his go in life and I do think 1000m down the straight will suit his jump/run style.

4 Athelric (Bet Now: $7.50) is much better suited at this level. They tested him out to see if he was an Everest contender but he just didn’t measure up at all, the latest in the Gilgai behind Private Eye. Back to this sort of grade and 1000m, fresh legs, his best is certainly good enough.

2 Vasmee (Bet Now: $14.00) is a query at the mile but I think this is the right time to try him out. Resumed over 1400m at Horsham where he had the suck run behind the speed before getting the inside split and class came to the fore with a dominant win. He’ll roll forward from the wide gate, 1/1 second up and is tough, especially when he gets a cheap run on speed.

14 Toregene (Bet Now: $6.50) is a key threat. Matty Williams trained mare that resumed at Cranbourne where she had the A1 run in transit before being presented clear air and in a driving go, finished best. Interesting the Blinkers are off and the Winkers go on, but she’s got the upside/progression and an ideal map once again.

10 Accountability (Bet Now: $71.00) is stupid odds here I feel. First run for Aaron Purcell came at Hamilton over the mile on a bog, a set up which was terrible when he was with Waller, but he found the line very well late in the piece when second to Bookman. Fitter, on a firmer deck…surely he only runs well.

Been hot on 3 Renaissance Woman (Bet Now: $9.00) for this race for a couple of months and won’t be dropping off. I thought her run in the Spring Champion was better than She’s Extreme given she bombed the start, was forced back, widest on the turn in the worst ground, yet still kept finding the line. Ethereal win was dominant…looks a two horse race and IMO this girl is the better bet at the price.

It wouldn’t shock me at all if 1 She’s Extreme (Bet Now: $2.45) came out and won this by 5+ lengths. Should have won the Spring Champion but was given none by Schofield. Shocking ride and she did a remarkable job to get as close as she did. Gate one, does no work, she’s hard to beat.

5 Foxy Cleopatra (Bet Now: $9.50) is one for exotics. This filly was an arrogant winner at The Valley two back before going to the Ethereal where she made her run with Renaissance Woman but on the line, she was held by that filly so I doubt she turns the tables, but she looks like 2500m will be fine.

9 Ojai (Bet Now: $11.00) deserves another look. I was keen on her in the Scarborough at The Valley but things didn’t fall into place for her and it was just a messy race behind Queen Of The Ball. Hasn’t quite gone on with it since her fresh run but if she brings that here, she’s in the mix.

5 Exo Lady (Bet Now: $11.00) has class and is tough. Resumed a few weeks ago at Eagle Farm over 1000m where she got back in the run and worked to the line strongly, looking the winner, but being first up, condition just gave way. Better for the run, she’ll roll forward and take beating.

16 Spicy Hotpot (Bet Now: $21.00) is in with a shout. She was hard in the market when resuming at the Warwick Farm midweeks where she got back in the run and made up good headway. Clear air this time around and overall, this race isn’t strong, so a win from her wouldn’t shock at all.

BEST BET: Race One Number 12 Tahlequah

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Joyful Fortune

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 3 Renaissance Woman

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5

Leg Two: 2, 5, 10, 13, 14

Leg Three: 1, 3

Leg Four: 5, 9, 12, 16

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful