3/4/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Tancred Stakes day

The Golden Slipper Carnival concludes this Saturday at Rosehill, headlined by the Tancred (2400m) and Vinery Stud (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

Tancred Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Tancred Stakes

Vinery Stud Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Vinery Stud Stakes

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2 Saif (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) looks the one to beat. Team Hawkes trained colt that was an impressive debut winner at Ballarat before going to the VRC Sires where he was back in a slowly run affair, but loved the way he found the line when second to Lightsaber. In the right camp and should be strong at the end.

1 Readily Availabull (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is another that could strengthen the Lightsaber form. He too comes through the VRC Sires and was very good late off a moderate speed, finishing fifth, beaten 2.5L. Tick over trial was a nice piece of work and if he’s within range, he’ll take beating against these.

4 With Your Blessing (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) looks a nice type. He is a few weeks between runs since contesting the Pago Pago in search of a Slipper start and nearly got there, finishing a close up fourth behind Magic Millions winner Shaquero. Tricky draw to overcome, but he looks a likely type so commands respect.

2 Entente (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is going super for the WaterBott camp. Be forgiving of his effort in the Canberra Cup on that very shifty track. He then found a much better surface in the Albury Cup and under a lovely steer from Clipperton, he absolutely bolted in and was dominant. Harder here, but have to like the way he’s gone about it.

I think we need to stop the idea that 3 Shared Ambition (Bet Now: $3.40 TOP ODDS) is a Group l horse. His two Group l attempts, he just hasn’t measured up at all in what look pretty thin races he has contested. Group lll/ll is his level and this is the sort of race he could easily fire in now he’s back in Sydney.

6 Paths Of Glory (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) is getting close to his D-Day. Has had a few weeks off since racing at Randwick where he didn’t really fire a shot behind Mount Popa in a plain effort, which followed a fair resumption, so jury is out on how well he is going but go back to third up in the Spring off a let up, he was excellent in the Metropolitan.

3 Young Werther (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) probably has the best engine of this lot, but he just has no clue upstairs what he is doing. He was good in defeat in the Alister Clark behind Grandslam, who went awful in the Rosehill Guineas, so the strength of that form is suspect, and the stable doesn’t really fire in Sydney, but he has enormous scope.

I like 6 Favreau (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS). John Sargent has had eyes on the Derby for this horse since the end of the Spring. Last two starts have resulted in very strong wins over the mile. Has he beaten much? Perhaps not, but he is very progressive and should prove very hard to beat against this lot.

4 Yaletown (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is an improver. I was keen on him running well in the Phar Lap but didn’t get the lead as Poland went nuts in front. He had to chase from the outset and tried hard, just tiring late to run fourth. Off that, should toughen him up for 2000m here, and if he leads, gee he’ll take running down.

Just have to stick with 1 Krone (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS). She’s a ripping mare for Tony Gollan that proved she wasn’t just a wet tracker when taking out the Coolmore Classic, showing an electric turn of foot when clear to win impressively. Don’t think this track will be rock hard, but even if it does dry out, she’s just a gun.

5 Sweet Deal (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is going well despite the form guide saying perhaps not. Led and tired late fresh in the Guy Walter before going to the Coolmore Classic where she didn’t quite get the rub of the green but thought she was entitled to finish the race off better. Tick over trial last Friday was strong and her best is good enough to fill a minor spot.

I think you have to believe what you saw with 10 Nimalee (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) and her first up win several weeks ago at Rosehill. She was first up at 1400m and sat outside the speed. Yes, had the lightweight, but she showed really good change up speed and was far too good. Fitter, up to 1500m…no reason why she can’t win again.

6 California Zimbol (Bet Now: $4.20) looks the safe option. Found a perfect race fresh three weeks ago in the Maurice McCarten and under a lovely ride from McEvoy, she showed her class late and was too good. Form out of it has been ticked off with Order Of Command running a beauty in the Galaxy last Saturday. Hard to beat now she’s fitter and up in trip.

3 Roheryn (Bet Now: $11.00) has the talent under the hood to give this a shake. His problem is that he has no early toe and leaves himself with far too much to do, which was the case last start in the Southern Cross. Produced some of the best late splits of the meeting, but it means nothing with no early speed. If he’s closer in the run, he’ll take holding out.

10 Prime Candidate (Bet Now: $6.50) can improve out of sight here. He resumed in the Maurice McCarten where he led at a decent clip and just ran out of puff late in the piece behind California Zimbol, but was only beaten just over four lengths. Has a sharp second up record and 1200m is better suited for him rather than an 1100m scamper.

Filthy…absolutely filthy I jumped off 3 Hungry Heart (Bet Now: $5.00) in the Phar Lap. I, like most, did the form for that meeting on a wet track. It ended up being quite firm, which suited this girl, and she lapped it up, producing one of the better wins of the meeting from the back in a fast race. Off that, eats up 2000m and she is just a pure dry tracker.

2 Harmony Rose (Bet Now: $2.70) looks one of the hardest to beat. Really impressive fresh win on the Kenso track before being thrown in the deep end in the Randwick Guineas and she ran an absolute beauty from near the speed behind King’s Roar. Back to her own sex, up to 2000m…very likeable.

I’m not sure what Peter Moody has in mind for 10 Princess Rhaenys (Bet Now: $20.00) but she looks a serious contender for an Oaks, whether it be in Sydney or in Adelaide. Her maiden win was electric at Ballarat, making the VRC Oaks runner up Salto Angel look second rate. The rise in trip suits and think she’ll only run well.

11 Melody Belle (Bet Now: $7.50 To Run 1st or 2nd PROMO) is a champion mare…in NZ. She has unfinished business in Australia and could well change that with a win here. Broke the Group l record of Sunline when winning the Bonecrusher last time, and she was dominant. Off the way she spanked them here, 2400m should be fine, and she gets J Mac.

I’m really keen on 2 Mirage Dancer (Bet Now: $9.50) running well. He ran fourth in this race last year but 12 months on, he is a better horse and I think has returned in super order. Comes through a brutally run Blamey fresh, then was much better in the Sky High when third to Toffee Tongue. 2400m on dry ground is his sweet spot and I don’t think you can go wrong backing him each way.

13 Toffee Tongue (Bet Now: $10.00) is a query at 2400m, but she has found form and could well go on with it. Marquand really lifted her late to win the Sky High three weeks ago. Never really looked like winning but surged the final few strides and the photo went her way. With a soft trip, she’ll run out the 2400m, and does have class.

I think dodging the Golden Mile last Saturday could work wonders for 4 Rock (Bet Now: $4.20). Has been kept on ice since resuming in the Ajax where he was very good from the back when a close up third to I Am Superman. His second up record speaks for itself and a firm track is music to his ears.

Contender or pretender time for 5 Buffalo River (Bet Now: $9.00). He’s hard fit and gets his A1 set up this time around, provided he gets the proper ride in front. Enormous in defeat in the Blamey after setting a brutal speed. Then went to the Ajax and thought he had his chance when fourth to I Am Superman, but keep in mind the runner up, Think It Over, won the George Ryder last Saturday, so the form has well and truly been ticked off. Hard to beat from the front.

In the Spring, I was potting 13 Yao Dash (Bet Now: $3.90) because he just wasn’t winning in easier races. But, the trip to the Gold Coast has switched him on I feel. He was a strong winner here three weeks ago, leading throughout and showing good ticker late to fend them off under Nash. Harder here, but he’ll give a sight.

8 Zeyrek (Bet Now: $11.00) is such a fascinating runner. Former French galloper that makes his Australian debut for Team Hawkes and we have seen time and time again this stable know what to do with these lightly raced imports. His trials have been more than sound and his form from overseas does read well for an 88 race.

9 Nudge (Bet Now: $8.00) looks to be in for a really good prep. Whether she is up to this class I’m not sure, but she was one of the runs of the meeting when resuming here three weeks back, charging home against the pattern behind Yao Dash. Has a good second up record and up in trip is a big tick.

15 Akari (Bet Now: $34.00) might need the run, but she does have talent on her day. Brad Widdup trained mare that is first up, having not raced since the Summoned during the Spring when midfield and solid in defeat behind Missile Mantra. Closed off well in both trials and is another who will appreciate a drying track.

BEST BET: Race One Number 2 Saif

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 4 Rock

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 8 Zeyrek

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 7, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 11, 13

Leg Three: 4, 5

Leg Four: 8, 19, 12, 15

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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