3/9/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Jolly Beggar Stakes day

Belmont will play host to an eight race card on Satuday for Jolly Beggar Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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6 Real Grace (Bet Now: $4.20) looks a good thing to my eye. She is now with Michael Grantham and we have seen that these Bob Peters horses do improve when joining this camp. Trials leading in have been super and Chris Parnham to steer, against this lot, I think she is clearly the one to beat.

3 Ponyo (Bet Now: $9.00) commands respect with the hard fitness under the belt. He ran two weeks ago here when on speed and he looked to truck nicely before being clicked and tried his guts out but couldn’t quite get there when second to Universal Pleasure. Hard fit, drawn nicely, he’s in the mix.

4 Strathmore Rose (Bet Now: $10.00) is on the seven day back up for Roy Rogers after racing last Saturday where when four wide no cover for the trip and rightfully tired late in a clear forgive run. The run prior suggested a win in town wasn’t far off. Doubt she beats Real Grace, but can fill a minor spot.

3 Strike Now (Bet Now: $3.10) is on top for me. He and Alsephina clashed here two weeks ago, with the mare just getting the win in a tight finish, with Strike Now working home strongly late, his first run in 140 odd days. He’s got good upside to come and gets CJP steering from a nice gate.

4 Astro Warrior (Bet Now: $5.50) has done little wrong this time in for Hayden Ballantyne. He attempted to lead throughout a fortnight back here where he tried his guts out and gave a solid kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Reign Of Fire. That form reads pretty well for this.

6 Halatorian (Bet Now: $17.00) has run well in town before so for mine, he’s a first four threat. Track was too wet at Northam last time so forgive and forget he went around. Prior efforts at metro level were sound so back on firmer footing here, he can run a much improved race.

5 Alsephina (Bet Now: $2.15) needs luck from the gate but she is a mare with talent. Lovely ride from Carbery saw her win a fortnight back in the race mentioned above, getting the suck run behind the speed before angling clear and finishing off strongly to get the win. If she gets luck from the draw, she’ll take beating.

1 No Change (Bet Now: $5.50) rises a fair bit in depth but is racing really well. Loved the way he knuckled down to win here last Wednesday, just getting the verdict and lasting. Harvey remains on for this assignment and if he gets a cheap run on speed, I think he could give a bold sight.

6 Enticing (Bet Now: $9.00) is a last start winner as well and is a knockout hope if the fav is off her game. Sprouted wings late to win at the midweeks here last time, finishing over the top and wearing down a talented animal in Cheerful Moment. Her best is good enough to be dangerous.

I want to give 5 Probity (Bet Now: $5.00) another look. He ran three weeks ago here in a strong 72 and had a slow recovery after finishing down the track behind Multinational, which followed a couple of impressive wins. Comes here with somewhat fresh legs and on a firmer deck, he can bounce back.

Fascinating runner is 2 Titan Blinders (Bet Now: $12.00), who makes his WA debut for Team Gangemi. He formerly raced in Victoria and if he produces anywhere near his best, he has these covered. Just being wary given he’s had one soft trial to get ready and 1200m isn’t his trip. But, watch the market, especially wtih this stable.

3 Dance Cockey (Bet Now: $21.00) deserves a crack at metro level given the way he’s going at the moment. He had a fab prep in Broome, highlighted by last start when winning the Broome Sprint. Wouldn’t be totally shocked if he won given he can sit on speed, cop heat and still find, but I’d say he’s more a first four player.

11 Rejuva King (Bet Now: $4.80) is racing really well for Dan Morton and no reason why he can’t win again. He is looking to make it three on the bounce, his latest win two weeks ago over 1400m where he sat back in the run and came with a well timed run to win nicely. Racing like the mile suits and finds a winnable race.

4 Catalpa (Bet Now: $8.50) can run an improved race, provided they ride him with more patience. They rode him warm a fortnight back here and it backfired, failing to finish it off behind Marlize. Form prior was more than sound, so with a more conservative steer, expect improvement.

2 Vital Flirt (Bet Now: $26.00) is on the seven day back up after racing in a strong 72+ at this track/distance last Saturday where she found the class a bit rich but was far from disgraced in defeat behind Buster Bash. Back to this level, she appeals, but would love the heavens to open up.

8 Blackwater Bay (Bet Now: $7.50) looks hard to beat against this lot. He ran in the Broome Cup last time out where he seemingly had his chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind Ombudsman. He is city class when he’s right, he’s back with Adam Durrant and he does look to have found a very winnable race here.

2 Bold Success (Bet Now: $8.50) will jump on the bunny and run a bold race. He got control two weeks ago here and despite being there to be run down, he had too good of a run in front and kicked on strongly enough to win. He’s been up forever but is racing well and commands respect.

11 Aragain (Bet Now: $26.00) is a very interesting runner. Brian Kersley trained mare that resumes, having not raced since June 25 over 2200m here when pulling up lame behind Reliable Star. Just one trial to get ready but has residual fitness and at her best, she is capable of being dangerous.

8 Nowhiteflag (Bet Now: $4.20) races best when he leads and finds the rail, which is a set up he should get here. Four weeks between runs since racing over 1400m here when on speed and fought on really well over a trip probably a bridge too far when third to Ginger Flyer. Back to 1000m, he’ll jump on the bunny and take catching.

4 Comes A Time (Bet Now: $2.80) commands respect against these. He was a strong winner over this track/distance fresh, lumping the big weight and was there to be beaten but he had a class edge and that came to the fore. Fitter, with weight relief, ideal map, he appeals big time.

6 Long Beach (Bet Now: $17.00) would love this track to dry out. It was too wet for him fresh here behind Comes A Time in the race mentioned above, so for mine, he was a total forgive. He’s a pretty sharp short course horse at this level when right, so I wouldn’t totally dismiss him.

8 Multinational (Bet Now: $4.00) is hard to beat against these. Lovely ride from Brad Parnham saw him win three weeks ago, wearing down an in form Buster Bash in a driving go. That was a solid 72+. Proven weight carrier and will be strong at the end. Happy to be in his corner against these.

1 Mood Swings (Bet Now: $6.00) is hard fit now and should take beating. Ran over 1200m here a fortnight back where he led, looked to get control, and looked the winner when he kicked clear, only to get nabbed late by Mercanto in a driving go. Last bit will test, but he’ll take beating.

4 Kia Ora Star (Bet Now: $17.00) is a knockout chance. He ran here last Saturday when back near last in the run and made up good ground in a strong effort behind Vane Tempest. He’s working up to a win here I feel. Not sure it’s here, but he is a must for multiple I’d suggest off last run.

BEST BET: Race One Number 6 Real Grace

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 8 Multinational

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 8 Blackwater Bay

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 4, 9, 11

Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 8, 11

Leg Three: 4, 6, 7, 8

Leg Four: 8

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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