30/1/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Chairman’s Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Caulfield this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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Think a positive ride will see 4 Vespertine (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) prove hard to beat. Grahame Begg trained filly that is four weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance when wide no cover for the trip yet fought on strongly when a close up third to Bella Tiara. Think if she can find the front and get control, she’ll take some beating.

3 Sensationalisation (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is a leading contender. Price/Kent trained filly that has finished runner up her past two, firstly at Flemington behind Zou Dancer before racing here where she was held up but once she got the split, she looked home, only to be nabbed late by Bella Tiara. Think that is good form for this.

A rise in trip will suit 2 Lariat (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS). Maher/Eustace trained filly that has had a couple of runs at 1100m after winning over 1200m at the Valley. Last start was down the straight at Flemington and was solid late behind Japery. Think up in trip will be ideal and should get a lovely run from the draw.

6 Aussie Nugget (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) is flying without winning for the Freedman camp and is a definite winning chance here. Ran over the mile here last time out and closed off strongly from near last when a close up fifth to Heavenly Emperor. If he can sit closer in the run, he’ll be quite dangerous.

5 High’N’Dry (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) has come back in super order for the Ellerton/Zahra camp. Last couple have come at Flemington, the latest seeing him two weeks ago under a lovely ride from Will Price, who gave him clear air early with full momentum and proved too good. Harder here, but have to like the way he’s going about it.

11 Red Octane (Bet Now: $51.00 TOP ODDS) is a real knockout hope down in the weights from on speed. He and Bobby Rocks declared each other on last start at Wangaratta and fought the finish out, with this guy just getting the better. They smashed the clock for the day and with only 52kg on his back, think he’ll give a sight.

3 Hasseltoff (Bet Now: $1.90 TOP ODDS) has been up a little while but is holding his form really nicely at the moment. Jamie Kah has been the star so far this season, but the steer from her aboard this guy last start at Flemington wasn’t flash. Should have won, but pilot error cost him. He’s going super and can bounce back into the winners list.

2 Upswing (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) looks to be heading in the right direction for Patrick Payne. Sat off a decent speed at Wangaratta last time before edging wider into clear air and he let down powerfully late to win and win well. Harder here, but more upside than most and should handle a wet track.

Back to 70 grade can spark improvement from 1 Five Kingdom (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS). He has contested a couple of open handicaps with an 84 in between this prep and while he hasn’t won, for the most part, he has been far from disgraced. This is a very winnable race for him and is hard to beat.

2 Enthaar (Bet Now: $1.25 TOP ODDS) is high up in betting for the Blue Diamond and the Golden Slipper so like most, very keen to see her return. There was a lot of arrogance about her debut win in the Gimcrack during the Spring. Wide throughout but she was just far too good for them. Loved the Werribee trial and all things being equal, she wins and stamps herself as a top juvenile.

1 Ingratiating (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) is a talented son of Frosted that resumes for James Cummings. Showed really good promise in his first prep during the Spring, smashing the clock on debut down the straight at Flemington before racing there again and running second to Finance Tycoon. Liked the recent jumpout and stable is flying with their juveniles.

5 Fortunate Kiss (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) is a Daniel Bowman trained filly that is on debut. Highly doubt she wins but the fact she debuts in this kind of race must mean that she is showing something decent at home to warrant a run here, and a five horse field, she could run third, get some blacktype and that is her future sealed.

3 Aysar (Bet Now: $2.90) can resume a winner. Hayes/Dabernig trained colt that resumes after a very solid Spring prep, highlighted by a game second to Ole Kirk in the Caulfield Guineas. He brings the A1 form into this and looks ready to go based on a recent jumpout. Think he’s the one to beat.

1 Tagaloa (Bet Now: $3.40) is a big query here. Blue Diamond winner of last year resuming after what I thought was a pretty disappointing Spring prep, where he didn’t go on with it at all from his 2YO season. Stable are confident they have him back on track and thought his jumpout on Monday was encouraging.

4 Dickin’ Medal (Bet Now: $3.50) is unbeaten in two career outings for James Cummings. Loved the way he knuckled down to win on debut at Geelong before going here where he sat off a very fast speed before peeling wider and finishing best, just, where they crawled home, so that’s a little query, but he does have race fitness. Not a long shot, but he’s third pick.

5 China Affair (Bet Now: $6.50) gets one last chance for me. Was on his back last Saturday at Sandown where he was ridden very quiet and Olly had to stay towards the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be, yet still produced good late splits. Think if they ride positive and sit outside Elderflower, he’ll take beating and Olly sticks.

2 Hidden Legend (Bet Now: $4.60) is a John Sadler trained gelding that has been given a slight freshen up, having not raced since Boxing Day at this track/distance when winning nicely under a lovely steer from Mick Dee. Ididitforlove has franked that form two fold since and this horse does tend to race best with fresh legs.

7 Messerschmitt (Bet Now: $12.00) is an interesting runner. Formerly with Team Freedman, he now finds himself with Amy & Ash Yargi. Three weeks between runs since racing down the straight at Flemington and didn’t really get the rub of the green late behind Ididitforlove in what is a good form race. A win wouldn’t shock at all.

Love the rise to a staying trip for 1 Long Arm (Bet Now: $3.50). Was on him last time out over 2000m but in a real sit/sprint, he just wasn’t suited off a four week break, but stayed on and was sound in defeat. Gets to a more ideal trip and has more upside than most. Happy to give him another chance.

3 Tarn’s Prince (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Matt Cumani trained stayer who is heading in the right direction. Lovely ride from Will Price saw him bolt up last Wednesday at Sandown. Rode him like he was the best horse in the race and duly saluted in impressive fashion. Hard fit, in form and is hard to beat against these.

2 Classic Weiwei (Bet Now: $17.00) is four weeks between runs for the McEvoy camp since winning at this track/distance in what was a fast run race and pretty much survival of the fittest, which he was on the line in a pretty good effort despite being a near rank outsider. Think he’s value given what he did there.

Market will be a guide as to how forward 10 Sky Horse (Bet Now: $8.50) is but she does have a touch of quality about her when right. Resumes for the Maher/Eustace camp after a pretty solid Winter prep, which included a solid fourth at Stakes level in the Gunsynd. Three jumpouts to get ready, so don’t think fitness will be an issue. Just a matter of what the market does.

7 Need New Friends (Bet Now: $8.50) has her confidence up now and think she can go on with it for Danny O’Brien. Lane rode her like she was the best horse in the race last Wednesday and despite being somewhat out of petrol tickets late, she fended them off and was too good. Now her confidence is high, she can win at this level.

6 Hearty Lass (Bet Now: $8.50) returns to the scene of the crime of her win two back and does command some level of respect. That win came at this track/distance in a similar race at the midweeks. Then went to Murray Bridge where she was a notable drifter late in betting and the market got it right when a battling fourth. Off the win start prior, she can take this out.

7 Hang Man (Bet Now: $13.00) hasn’t won in a little while for Michael Moroney but he hasn’t been far away of late and the depth here, as a whole, isn’t strong. Resumed off a let up two weeks ago at Flemington and worked to the line pretty well late in the piece behind Over Exposure. Fitter and up to 1800m, he can win.

To the eye, 3 Defibrillate (Bet Now: $2.40) is flying, but has he been flattered? I think you’ll get a good guide as to how well he’s indeed going because his last two starts/wins have pretty much been barrier trials and that set up has been perfect for him. If this becomes a proper staying contest, will he handle it?

Want to give 4 Kentucky Breeze (Bet Now: $12.00) another chance. On face value, he was pretty plain behind Over Exposure two weeks back at Flemington, but the race shape was totally against him and he just couldn’t get involved. Better suited here I feel and up to 1800m is a big tick.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 8 Great House

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 6 Aussie Nugget

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 5 China Affair

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 7

Leg Two: 1, 3

Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7, 10

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 7

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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