30/10/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Victoria Derby day

The best Carnival that Australian racing has to offer is Cup Week at Flemington and this Saturday kicks it off with Derby Day, one of the best race days on the calendar. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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11 Fangirl (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) looks like she will eat up the mile. Thought she would have been ideally placed in a Thousand Guineas but the stable opted for the weaker option of the Reginald Allen and she was too good, strong late. Off that, she will have no issue with the mile and has timing about her.

3 Prix De Turn (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is a two start maiden but gee he’s a nice horse. Loved the way he found the line on debut at Sandown behind Extreme Flight. He then went to the Caulfield Guineas at start two, a brutally run race, and I thought he was fabulous in defeat behind Anamoe. That is A1 form and has to be respected.

8 Corkscrew (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is a working progress for the Price/Kent team. Debuted with a strong win at Horsham before going to the Gothic at Caulfield where he was near the strong speed and battled on pretty well in defeat I thought when fourth to Extreme Flight. Off that effort, he has to be respected here.

I am looking at this race with Great House, assuming they will scratch and save him for Tuesday. 7 Mankayan (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) is on top with Great House out. He was a month between runs and was 2400m back to 2000m when on speed under Meech and he fought, just failing to fend off stablemate Durston, but he fought hard. That was the first time Meech sat on him in a race so she’ll know him better now and from in front, he’ll take beating.

3 Le Don De Vie (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is one of the key threats. He was very one paced last Wednesday in the Geelong Cup but stayed on and was sound in defeat to the line and through it behind Tralee Rose. I think Olly will ride him more positively this time around. Potentially sits outside Mankayan and should be strong at the end.

2 Knight’s Order (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) is capable if he produced somewhere near his best. He ran last Wednesday in the Geelong Cup when leading and didn’t find a great deal I thought when down the track behind Tralee Rose. If he ran up his efforts from the Winter, he’d be right in this.

I’m with 4 Barb Raider (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS). Was with her in the Thousand Guineas and though a bit one paced when Williams asked her to go, she stayed on and was very good in defeat when third to Yearning. Gets a 3kg weight pull on that horse and was 1800m back to the mile last time, so up in trip now, she’ll take beating.

1 Yearning (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) has the runs on the board and should eat up the 2000m. Lovely ride from Thornton saw her bolt up in the Thousand Guineas and what was impressive was how strong she was to the line and through it. Being out of Rising Romance, she should eat up the extra trip and is a proven weight carrier.

7 Audrey Girl (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) looks like she will be okay at 2000m. This filly ran over the mile at Caulfield on Thousand Guineas Day. She sat back in the small field and came with her run, surging late, just missing out on picking up Rhinoceros. Off that, the extra ground is okay and stable is in form.

4 Brooklyn Hustle (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS) has an awful racing pattern so she needs luck to go her way. In saying that, she should have won last start at Caulfield, but pilot error from Williams cost her dearly. Gets the big upgrade of J Mac on, and with the small field, she won’t be far away and should get clear air.

2 Kemalpasa (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) is a beauty and is a proven performer at this track. Led and probably went a bit too slow in the Gilgai, which in turn allowed Kementari be within range and he had the better change up speed in a tight go. He’ll land near the front and give his all, as usual.

6 Samizdat (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) can sneak a first four spot. The Gangemi camp trains this talented sprinter, who hasn’t set the world on fire in his Melbourne prep, but gee he looked sharp in a recent jumpout here. Few question marks on some of these, including him, but difference with him is that he’s at big odds.

Rain on the cards, fitter and up to the mile against her own sex at set weights, I’m really keen on 1 Colette (Bet Now: $8.00). The ratings boys and girls will say it was just a win from her in the Tristarc, but you have to remember she was being set for a Caulfield Cup but a foot abscess put that plan to bed. Freshened back to 1400m, her class came to the fore. She’ll only improve off that and has a clear class edge.

2 Mystic Journey (Bet Now: $5.50) looks to be ticking along beautifully. Comes through the Rose Of Kingstonj when back off the speed and chased strongly behind Still A Star in a good effort. Her racing pattern is becoming an issue. If she can sit a pair or two closer in the run, she’ll take beating.

Giving enormous respect to 8 Hungry Heart (Bet Now: $12.00). She has come back more dour to my eye, which was evident in her trials prior to first up. She has found 1400m-1600m too sharp and is a mare wanting 2000m+, so hopefully the tempo here will be strong enough. Epsom run was good and was screaming of a horse wanting more ground. Confident she goes close provided she doesn’t get too far back.

3 Alegron (Bet Now: $6.50) comes here with fresh legs and strong form. He is three weeks between runs since a gallant effort in the Spring Champion behind Profondo, where he had to make a sustained run from off the speed and battled away strongly. He’ll eat up 2500m and brings IMO the strongest form line.

4 Gunstock (Bet Now: $5.00) looks the pick of the locals. Strong third in the Super Impose before the Blinkers went on in the Caulfield Classic and in a proper staying contest, he was strongest and impressive. The 2500m should be no issue off the Caulfield run and is one of the hardest to beat.
Long Shot: 12 Clyde could be one of the better $201 chances I’ve come across. Race shape was totally against him in th

12 Clyde (Bet Now: $41.00) could be one of the better $201 chances I’ve come across. Race shape was totally against him in the Spring Champion. He then lumped 59kg against older horses at Scone and was impressive in winning, with big gaps throughout in fast time. He’ll settle handy, he’ll stay, has the Spring Champion form…he is just stupid odds.

9 Extreme Warrior (Bet Now: $4.00) looks the one with upside and timing. Got the maiden win out of the way in style fresh at Echuca. He then was backed with confidence in the Blue Sapphire and the end result was an absolute spank job of his rivals. You’d like to think he’ll only keep improving and if that eventuates, he’ll take a power of beating.

6 Paulele (Bet Now: $6.50) is three weeks between runs for James Cummings since running fast time in winning the Roman Consul at Randwick, a race which has proven to be a form reference for this in the past. Could have run in The Everest but with a Group l on the line here, he looks to be a leading contender.

Just how good is 7 Kallos? (Bet Now: $9.50) Smashed the clock first up in a Hawkesbury maiden then proved that was no fluke with a dominant win in the Danehill. Ingratiating has come out of that race to run well in the Manikato so the form is okay and he seemed to thrive down the straight.

2 Cascadian (Bet Now: $10.00) is Cascadian. Backing him to win requires some courage but I think he’s racing well. Excellent from near last in the run when a close up fourth in the Epsom to Private Eye. Proven WFA performer and a proven Group l performer so he has class and that will carry him a long way.

14 Mr Brightside (Bet Now: $4.80) has been an absolute revelation in recent months but he’s a winner and a line chaser. Super ride from Williams saw him win the Seymour Cup at Ballarat. That form has been well and truly ticked off with Just Jake winning the Crystal Mile last Saturday. Down in the weights, hard fit, in form…very likeable.

5 Buffalo River (Bet Now: $27.00) is racing for the third time in four weeks but he handled the seven day back up fine when winning last time out at Cailfield and I think a big tick for him there was how well he relaxed in front. Whether that was due to the wet track, or Jye McNeil, not sure, but he’ll take beating from the front here with Linda Meech steering.

1 September Run (Bet Now: $5.50) is at last chance territory, with the saving grace for her being a return to the straight track, where she saves her best. Her three runs back have been okay, but last start she was very disappointing. Back to the straight course and a bit of juice in the ground, she’ll take beating.

16 Never Talk (Bet Now: $14.00) is on track I feel. Produced the best late splits of the meeting at Caulfield a fortnight back, flashing home from near last in the Alinghi when third to Mileva. If she can sit a few lengths closer in the run, which is a good chance of happening down the straight, she’ll be dangerous.

14 Bless Her (Bet Now: $14.00) is bursting to win a Stakes race for Clayton Douglas. Her two runs for the stable have been excellent. First up at Sandown ran a narrow second to a 1000m specialist, Esta La Roca. She then went to the Alinghi and looked home when John Allen presented her, but she had to settle for a narrow second to Mileva. Third up, hard fit, she can take this out.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Colette

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 11 Fangirl

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 2 Cascadian

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 12

Leg Two: 2, 6, 7, 9

Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 7, 14

Leg Four: 1, 5, 14, 16, 17

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful