30/3/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Tancred Stakes day

The Golden Slipper Carnival at Rosehill concludes this Saturday with a Group l double header, the Tancred (2400m) and Vinery Stud (2000m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (10) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

5 Fortress Command (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is a Gerald Ryan trained colt who is 2/2 to start his career. Debuted with a very impressive win at Wyong before overcoming the track bias at Newcastle on Newmarket Day and producing a lovely finale from the back to win. Heading in the right direction and does have the solid 1400m run under the belt. Definitely appeals against this lot.

1 Bellevue Hill (Bet Now: $2.20 TOP ODDS) missed out on a start in the Slipper but can pick up a consolation here. Such a sharp debut winner at Canberra before going to the Todman where he led, gave a good kick but just found Yes Yes Yes too good, and that horse was enormous in defeat in the Slipper, so that form does read really well for this, lands in front and will take some beating.

6 Autocratic (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is a Team Snowden trained colt who resumed in the Pago Pago two weeks ago where he looked hopeless on wet ground but picked up, kept finding and was an eye catcher late when fourth to Cosmic Force, who ran okay in the Slipper last week. Think the dry track will be more to his liking and up to 1400m is a big tick. Looks a serious winning chance.

I think you have to give 2 Moss ‘N’ Dale (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) another look, especially on a rain affected track. Has only beat one runner home in two runs back from a spell, but first up was the C F Orr and then last start was the All Star Mile on quite a firm Flemington track, something he hates. Loves to get his toe and that is what he’ll get here, and from gate one, he’ll get every chance.

12 All Too Soon (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) lacks the class of some of these but what she does have is race fitness, hard race fitness, and good wet track credentials. Ran in the Epona here last Saturday where she was on/off in the latter part of the race but once she switched on, I thought she was commendable behind Semari. Down on the minimum with hard fitness, she can win for sure.

3 Libran (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is ticking over towards the Sydney Cup and should run well. He resumed in the Chipping Norton where the race was run at a brutal speed, something that clearly wasn’t his go, but despite that, he stayed on and was okay late behind the champion stablemate. Dodged the wet track last week to find firmer footing here, and he has an excellent second up record.

If there’s a second tier sleeper re Derby, I reckon 9 Carif (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) could well be it. Very well bred colt for Team Snowden who stepped out beyond 1600m last time over 1850m at Newcastle and not sure he beat much, but it was the manner in which he did it was just so sharp and there does seem to be real timing about this horse, plus this race has been a decent form reference for the Derby in the past. Definite winning chance.

The Baker/Forsman team rarely get it wrong when they bring one over and that appears to be the case once again with 1 Madison County (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS). His run in the Randwick Guineas was very good I thought, closing off strongly after being initially flat footed when the sprint went on. Looks one of the better NZ chances re Derby, and is in the right stable.

3 Platinum Invader (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a very interesting runner. Lisa Latta trains this bloke at Awapuni and he had a very hectic Autumn prep back home, running two weeks in a row and then backing up a week later in the Derby when third to Crown Prosecutor. Like him with fresh legs and a hard 2000m should be no issue for him. Leading chance for sure against these.

7 Princess Posh (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) has had an unbelievable 6-12 months for Kris Lees and Australian Bloodstock. Brilliant winner of the Newcastle Newmarket two back before backing up eight days later in the Coolmore and she ran a beauty in defeat behind Dixie Blossoms. I had her penned down as purely a wet tracker, but the Newmarket win confirms she’s going so well that she can win on firm ground.

Is 4 Noire (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) back in business? She looked done and dusted after a terrible effort in the Guy Walter but her run in the Coolmore was very good, one of only a select few for the entire meeting to come significantly wide on the track and make up good ground. Can sit much closer in the run from the good draw and if she can improve off that last start, she’s in the mix.

I think 10 Insensata (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) isn’t far off a win. Just not sure it’s here though but I’d include her in multiples. Hasn’t raced since the Newcastle Newmarket where not much went right for her but she was sound in defeat behind Princess Posh. They meet at level weights from that run, so turning the tables seems unlikely, but she did trial well last week and stable finds Willow.

Can see them going silly in front, so I’m hoping 11 Maximus (Bet Now: $11.00) can sit off that and have last look. He’s had a couple of runs back from a spell and has been quite good. Resumed with a narrow second behind behind All Too Royal at this track/distance before going to Randwick where he had no luck at all behind Renewal. The key to him is being produced fresh, which he is here, he’s down in the weights, parks off a hot speed and wet track no issue.

Contender or pretender time for 6 Estijaab (Bet Now: $2.80). Fabulous resumption off a long break in the Inglis Sprint when beaten a lip by Fiesta before going to the Challenge where she was a touch disappointing behind Ball Of Muscle. I think the key to her is wet tracks, because that is when she’s been at her best, the Slipper win and the first up run behind Fiesta. D-Day for her.

9 Siren’s Fury (Bet Now: $18.00) could be a knockout here if things fall into place for her. Hasn’t raced for four weeks since sitting back near last in the Guy Walter where the tempo was against her and she couldn’t come on at all behind Alassio. Back to a sprint trip and a fast tempo will be right up her alley and the tick over trial last week at Warwick Farm was encouraging.

I think the best horse in the race is clearly 3 Verry Elleegant (Bet Now: $2.30) and the only thing stopping her is racing manners, because she has such an awkward action and carries the head high, but once she flattens out, gee she’s a good filly, and she showed that with a commanding performance in the Phar Lap. 2000m looks okay…if the tempo is slow, that will be the worry because when the tempo has been slow in the past, she has pulled her head off badly.

2000m looks as if it will really suit the James Cummings trained 8 Pohutukawa (Bet Now: $6.00). J Mac rode her with such arrogance in the Kembla Grange Classic and she won accordingly, with the margin seriously flattering her rivals given she made a sustained run from the side of the track. Should have no issue with the 2000m and really, how can you ignore the stable.

I think 4 Aristia (Bet Now: $8.00) shouldn’t be entirely ignored. She was four and five wide throughout in the Phar Lap, covering a stack of ground, and was second up. Thought she did a good job to keep finding the line behind Verry Elleegant. This girl does have a good record against the fav yet is $14 compared to the fav being close to even money. Price gap too big IMO.

Just has to handle the back up and 1 Avilius (Bet Now: $1.60) will prove too good. Steered clear of him in the Ranvet after the Australian Cup flop but he was outstanding last Saturday and remains unbeaten in Sydney with a dominant Group l win. Think the 2400m will be perfect for him and for mine, the only knock/concern is back up. Outside that, clearly should win this.

3 Red Cardinal (Bet Now: $6.00) looks to be ticking over really nicely en route to the Sydney Cup. 2/2 this time in for Kris Lees, the last start seeing him score a pretty decisive win in the Sky High a fortnight ago, slogging it out best in the mud. The track should have plenty of wear and tear and I’d say some sort of give in it, which helps his cause and up to 2400m is ideal.

I think firmer footing will help 12 Brimham Rocks (Bet Now: $23.00), a Chris Waller trained stayer who appears to be going nicely for a Sydney Cup prep. He comes through the Sky High where I thought he was given every chance by J Mac in the run and loomed to win but the wheels started spinning when let down. On top of the ground, he’ll be better suited…the concern is the step up to WFA.

I think this is a race where you can have a throw at the stumps and at value, I’ll have something small each way on 11 Grey Lion (Bet Now: $23.00), a former Matt Cumani trained galloper that is now with Matty Smith en route to a Brisbane campaign. His best form is at 2000m+, but with the bottomless track, it will feel like 2000m+ for some here, and his Randwick trial win was very good from the back I thought. Can sprint well fresh as well.

2 Siege Of Quebec (Bet Now: $4.60) is a big improver for mine. WaterBott trains this bloke, who was well backed when resuming in the Newcastle Newmarket and for mine, I thought he had his chance when fifth to Princess Posh. Has been kept on ice since and kept up to the mark with a trial win last Friday. He can roll along on speed and prove hard to run if he brings his best.

7 Kaonic (Bet Now: $5.50) a threat for me. I think his two runs back from a break have been full of merit, the latest being in the Ajax two weeks ago where he looked a bit legless on the bog track but kept finding the line when fourth to Fifty Stars. He’ll be much better on a firmer footing and third up, he should just about be ready fitness wise. Happy to give him respect in a tough race.

7 Mahalangur (Bet Now: $3.90) is a son of O’Reilly for Team Hawkes who resumed here two weeks ago on the wet track when defeated narrowly by Star Of The Seas. Fitness beat him in the end because the winner had race fitness while this bloke only had one soft trial under the belt. Think he’ll take really good improvement from that and prove really hard to beat here.

9 Spring Charlie (Bet Now: $3.70) looks on track for the Provincial Championship and this should clean out the cobwebs. Resumed in the Hawkesbury Qualifier where he did the donkey work on speed but showed good fight to put the leader away, boot for home, only to be nabbed near the line by stablemate Safado, who failed with excuses next start. Recent tick over trial was good, has won on Soft and maps okay.

I’m very wary of 5 Zourkhan, (Bet Now: $10.00) resuming for Chris Waller. Is first up without a public trial (great for racing isn’t it), but he does have a pretty good first up record, including last prep over 1500m here when a solid third to Mapmaker before winning a couple of races. The early market flucs say he needs the run, but he’s a swimmer and if there’s a positive push from the market and yard watchers, I’d want to have something on.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Avilius

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 3 Verry Elleegant

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 5 Fortress Command

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8, 10

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 2, 5, 7, 11

Leg Four: 5, 7, 9, 10

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful