30/5/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Lord Mayors Cup day

Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday where it is Lord Mayors Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out six metres from the 1400m-Winning Post; Out four metres for the remainder.

Lord Mayors Cup 🏆: View the Field for the Lord Mayors Cup

I think you have to believe what you saw with 1 Anders (Bet Now: $2.35 TOP ODDS) and what he produced when winning at Wyong last time out. He led throughout over 1100m and admittedly the track got worse as the day went, but he still ran outstanding time in winning and he finally showcased what he showed in the early trials. Can he repeat the dose? I’ll take the punt.

3 Andermatt (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a well bred son of Snitzel for James Cummings that was specked at odds when debuting over 1000m at Kembla where he was back, wide with cover, before presenting wider and producing a brilliant finale to get up and score a big win. Hadn’t showed much at the trials, but off that win, has to be respected.

11 Proud Mia (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a definite chance here. Debuted for Nick Olive over 900m at Queanbeyan off the back of an impressive trial win at Canberra and justified the short odds with a jump and run spank job of her rivals. Time was nothing flash, but stable don’t bring them to town for nothing and she has good early toe.

9 Deepwood Vale (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) for me. Paul Messara trained filly that had trialled up alright prior to resuming during the Scone Carnival where she was eased back to last from the wide gate, but really liked the way she finished her race off in what ended up being a messy race. Like him up to 1400m and stable rarely gets it wrong when it comes to the Highway.

6 Leg Work (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) is a progressive son of Shamus Award for Danny Williams that was a most impressive winner during the Wagga Carnival before contesting a 1500m Highway here two weeks ago where he was tardy away and held up for a stride or two, but was solid late when third to Perfect Pitch. That was a Class 3 Highway, so back to Class 2, he’s likeable.

5 Izzy Looking Good (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) rises significantly in depth here, but Tom Lyttle has him going well and is deserving of a crack in a Highway. Ran over 1400m at Moruya last time out when given a good ride just off the speed from McLucas and liked the way this gelding finished it off. Gets in well after the claim and draws to do no work.

9 Sally’s Day (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) needs things to fall into place for her, but if that does eventuate, her turn of foot can beat these. Wide no cover throughout but far too good for them first up at Wyong before going to the Denise’s Joy where she was on the back of Fiteuse and tried hard, but no match for that quality filly, but did clock good late splits. She has a short, sharp turn of foot, so she needs things to go her way, but if they do, she can win.

11 L’Cosmo (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Lonhro for Team Snowden that ran second to Fituese a few weeks back on the Kenso track. Thought when McEvoy presented her clear air, it was race over, but not only didn’t she make ground on the Thompson filly, she actually drew clear late, but that filly went on to win the Denise’s Joy. She’s honest and should be around the mark.

13 Van Giz (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is worth a look here at decent odds for Bjorn Baker. If you were on her at Scone…sorry for bringing it up. She should have won, but just had no luck at all in the straight in getting clear air until it was far too late. Placed both runs on wet ground and has a gate to use. Think she’s a touch of overs here.

Clean jump and 4 Trumbull (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) just about beats these. Quality galloper for Kim Waugh who was great in defeat last time out in the Luskin Star, missing the start and sitting back near last in a slowly run affair, but loved the way he found the line late behind Ranier. If he jumps clean, he’ll land on speed here and take a power of beating.

If 2 Sure Knee (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) drew a gate I’d be all over her, but from the wide alley, just worried they will ease her back to last and she’ll be spotting them too much head start. I wasn’t alone in seeing her run in the Dark Jewel. With clear air, she goes close to winning IMO, but it ended up being another barrier trial. She’ll win races this prep…will this be one? Not sure.

1 Articus (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is knocking on the door to take one out. Was close up in the Tamworth Cup two back won by Ligulate before going to the Grand Piano race three weeks back at Randwick where he was specked at odds and worked to the line pretty well late in the piece. Can be tricky to catch, but he hasn’t done much wrong this time in.

Won’t be easy jumping to 1200m, taking on seasoned campaigners, and giving some of those weight, but she just looks so promising does 8 Fituese (Bet Now: $1.65). Gave them a spanking first up on the Kenso track in what has turned out to be a strong form race. She then went to the Denise’s Joy and was far too good. Different ball game here, but think she’s up to it.

1 Noble Boy (Bet Now: $5.50) is the one that’s overs. On face value, his resumption in the Ortensia was just fair, but considering the winner has run the last 600m in under 33, those from the back had no chance, including Noble Boy, so his effort was a big tick. I think third up is when I’ll be betting up, a race like the June Stakes, but concede he’s hard to beat here, especially with the claim.

6 Murillo (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Team Snowden trained five year old that to the eye, looked to be going very quick in front in the Takeover Target, but on the clock, it was a somewhat controlled gallop. But that sort of class found him out in the end when down the track behind Snitz. His best chance of winning will be leading, rolling and breaking their heart.

6 Miss Einstein (Bet Now: $3.50) looks the pony to bet on. Like most, was keen on her last Saturday at Randwick, but I think there was a hint of pilot error from Collett that potentially cost her the win. The chance was there to stay on the back of Opacity, but Collett played the percentages and waited, gave up ground and eased wider. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but he should have held the back of Opacity and IMO she wins if that happens. Hard to beat back to Mares grade.

12 Feather (Bet Now: $14.00) has returned in really good order for Team Hawkes. Settled for a narrow second to Tricky Gal first up at Warwick Farm before going to the Kenso track where she chased strongly to run second to Bound To Win. One of her two career wins came third up, so the pattern is there for her, and two runs back from a break have been good.

3 Our Winnie (Bet Now: $61.00) is a Greg McFarlane trained mare that resumes. Hasn’t raced since December 14 at Randwick when down the track behind Matowi but was probably looking for the paddock at that stage. Just one soft trial leading in, but has a touch of quality about her when ride and stable finds Nash to steer, so I’d be watching the market.

At close to double figure odds, happy to go each way with 1 Sixties Groove (Bet Now: $8.50). He had trialled up really well prior to resuming in the Scone Cup, where nothing went his way in the straight, but got clear late and worked to the line quite well I thought under not that hard of riding. Good lead that Bowman is booked, and he has these on toast re class.

16 Aliferous… (Bet Now: $8.00) surely she can take one of these out. She’s flying for Kris Lees but can’t quite crack it for a win. Latest run came in the Gosford Cup at Randwick where she bungled the start and was near last throughout. Did a good job to get as close as she did behind Another Dollar. She’ll be very dangerous if she can sit closer in the run.

The weather forecast will determine the chances of 12 Scarlet Dream (Bet Now: $21.00). At the time of writing this, the forecast for the days leading into Saturday is fine weather with no rain, so hoping the track can dry out somewhat. Ran in the Gosford Cup three weeks ago at Randwick and had no luck at all in the straight with something to offer behind Another Dollar. Tick over trial win was good. Just want a drying deck.

Looks a good kick off point for the promising WaterBott runner 8 Mr Dependable (Bet Now: $4.80). Had a really good Summer prep, winning a couple of races in impressive fashion and stamping himself as a Saturday class horse. Loved his two trials leading in and he did win first up last prep over 1500m here. This race looks no harder.

4 Ljungberg (Bet Now: $7.00) can improve here at odds. Hadn’t done much in two trials prior to resuming over 1100m here and failed to fire a shot from off the pace when down the track behind Adelong. Good second up record and I think he will be best suited if this track has genuine give in it, so if that eventuates, he’s worth a look at odds and to be included in multiples.

2 Spencer (Bet Now: $16.00) would love this track to dry out because that when he is most effective and I think off his resumption, he’s in for a good prep. Resumed at Randwick and though in restricted room, he closed off strongly late. One more run perhaps, but a must for multiples.

6 Adelong (Bet Now: $1.90) is a talented mare for Brad Widdup that is potentially Stakes class, but I think needs to measure up here and go close to warrant that wrap. She was very sharp in winning here two weeks ago, chasing a good speed before taking the front at the top of the straight, kicked clear and held a safe margin to the line. Good test here, but has upside to come and has the right racing pattern.

Think 3 Superium (Bet Now: $4.40) can resume a winner. He’s one of mine and can be hard to trust, but I think he’s wound up for a first up win. Given a really strong hitout in his trial win at Warwick Farm, sitting off speed before being really pushed out in the straight by J Mac when clear, going on to win and running good time. Tardy start again in that trial, and he can’t afford to do that here I don’t think.

4 Broken Arrows (Bet Now: $8.00) looks in for a good prep for David Pfieffer. Resumed at this track/distance a fortnight ago when seemingly run off his legs early and was never a winning factor, but really liked the way he finished his race off when third to Adelong and clocked great late splits. If he can sit a pair or two closer in the run, he’ll be very dangerous.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 4 Trumbull

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 6 Miss Einstein

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 1 Sixties Groove

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 6

Leg Two: 1, 9, 12, 16, 18

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 8

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 7

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful