30/7/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Winter Challenge day

Ten races will be run and won at Rosehill on Saturday for Winter Challenge Day. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out four metres from the 1500m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.

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11 Zaru (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) is a knockout chance at odds. First run for Joseph Burges came during the Grafton Carnival and he was very good from the back against the pattern behind Oakfield Duke, who I think is a Four Pillars/Provincial Championship horse, so that form, IMO, reads very well for this, and he’ll be strong late.

3 So Country (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is putting together a strong record for Mel O’Gorman. Somewhat of a lucky winner at Highway level here a fortnight back but credit to him for keeping on chasing and finding under pressure to win. He’s a very genuine horse who commands respect.

13 Sir Ravanelli (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a talented animal for Terry Evans who is bursting to win a Highway. Game fourth two back at Randwick behind Bootscooter. He then raced here two weeks ago and really, he should have won, but he got shy of an advertising board and threw the race away. He’s knocking on the door and is hard to beat.

15 Troach (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is a filly with good talent for James Cummings and I think she deserves another chance. She resumed at Randwick three weeks ago when ridden with a sit and worked to the line well enough without threatening behind impressive winner Midnight In Tokyo. More positive steer, she can bounce back.

3 Athletica (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited here for the GaiBott stable. Resumed in the Midnight In Tokyo race from three weeks back at Randwick and was good late from off the speed, albeit did have the suck run on the fence, which was no disadvantage. Had trialled well leading in so she commands respect.

4 Fire And Ice (Bet Now: $9.00) is a nice type for Mick Minervini. Did plenty wrong in his first prep but he looks to have come back a better horse, resuming with a spank job all the way win at Wyong, and seemingly won with plenty in hand. Good test here, but think he can measure up.

7 Bartoselli (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) is back on track for John Thompson. Too bad to be true first up at Canterbury before racing here in a Midway where he had a suck run behind the speed and looked the winner when presented, but couldn’t quite finish it off and was nabbed late by Noble Soldier. Hard to beat if he can hold that form.

4 Contributingfactor (Bet Now: $5.50) is hard to beat for David Atkins. He has seemingly been in work forever but is holding his form nicely enough, the latest run being several weeks back when back and closing off okay late behind Jojo Was A Man, who won again and nearly won a Stakes race. Hard to beat in a race like this.

16 Damaged (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) hasn’t won in a little while but that said, he hasn’t been far away. Narrow second in a Midway behind Saquon before racing in another Midway and wasn’t beaten far by Essonne in a good effort. He then went to the midweeks at Warwick Farm and was far from disgraced behind Overlord. Form around him reads solid for this race. Just needs luck in the run.

1 Lovely Esteem (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is working up to a win for Chris Waller. Definite pass mark first up here against the pattern behind Bella Rouge. Stepped up to 1500m two weeks ago and she warmed to the task nicely late behind Alcyone when third. She’ll love the rise to 1800m and has good upside to come.

9 Monfelicity (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is a David Payne trained mare who has more upside than most engaged here. Big win from her first up in a Midway at Randwick three weeks ago, surging hard late between runners and attacking the line the hard the final few strides to get up and win. Like her up in trip and she’ll be strong late.

6 My Demetra (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) can bounce back as she returns to Mares grade. Contested a strong 88 against the boys here two weeks back and just found the class a bit rich when down the track behind Lord Ardmore, who looks to have returned in super order and is a Stakes class horse of the future. Back to Mares grade, she can run a much improved race.

2 French Marine (Bet Now: $16.00) won’t know himself at this level. You look back through his form, there is Benchmark 78/84 races he contested and did run third in the Provincial Championship Final. Has had several weeks off and a tick over trial was good. Maps to stalk Shades Of Rose and IMO he’ll only run well.

7 Shades Of Rose (Bet Now: $1.95) is a filly with good talent for Bjorn Baker. It was horrendous viewing if you were on her back a fortnight back here. Bungled the start then was hunted forward to find a spot out wide on speed. Despite that, she cruised up to win and looked home but was nabbed late. If that hasn’t busted her, she’ll be around the mark.

5 Ruby Kisses (Bet Now: $21.00) can be an improver at odds. Ryan/Alexiou trained filly that resumed three weeks back behind Lady Brook where she got back to near last in the run and didn’t fire a shot, but the track pattern was against her. Dangerous if she can settle closer in the run.

1 Kanazawa (Bet Now: $4.50) has found winning form and confident he can maintain it. He found the best ground at Randwick three weeks ago but even allowing for that, he was still a dominant winner and spanked them, confirming his other two runs from the prep that he’s come back a better horse. No reason to look away.

3 Kalino (Bet Now: $4.40) has found winning form and I think he can hold it. Jury was out on him after a couple of plain runs to start the prep, which followed an electric trial win, but he bounced back to his best five weeks ago with a dominant win over the mile at Randwick, albeit the form is a tad suspect. He has fresh legs, he’s found winning form, hard to beat.

6 Pizarro (Bet Now: $6.00) has come back really well for John O’Shea and is hard to beat here. Both runs back from a spell have come here, first up running second to Riva Del Sol before racing two weeks ago and he didn’t stop chasing in a good effort when second to Pretty Wild, an above average filly, so third up, hard fit now, he’ll take beating.

Right down in the weights, near the speed, I’m in the corner of 14 Aramis (Bet Now: $8.50). Was on his back in the Grafton Guineas last time and I loved the way he dug in to win. The race was there to be won and he lifted late under Sherry to win. On speed, down in the weights, it’s a perfect set up for Tyler Schiller to take control.

9 Kirkeby (Bet Now: $6.00) is knocking on the door. Chris Waller trained gelding that was on the seven day back up when racing here a fortnight back. Pike rode a peach race on him, getting the suck run behind the speed before slicing his way through the field and charged late to just miss on picking up Caesar’s Palace. Hard to beat if he can settle a pair closer in the run.

2 Philipsburg (Bet Now: $9.50) has been up forever it seems like but gee he is racing really well. He ran over this track/distance two weeks back and was very good from near last in the run when a closing third to Caesar’s Palace. King is back aboard and if he can settle closer, he’ll take beating.

12 Cross Talk (Bet Now: $3.20) on top. GaiBott trained gelding that has done little wrong in a six start career and now seems the right time to have a crack at Stakes grade. Pattern was in his corner three weeks ago at Randwick but even allowing for that, he was dominant and spanked them. Good test, but he’ll roll forward and take beating, especially if this track is playing on speed.

Racing is all about opinions. My opinion is that 10 Durston (Bet Now: $10.00) could be well a leading candidate for the locals when it comes to the Melbourne Cup. Resuming here tells me the stable have eyes on lower prizes, but he has class and I think he’s Group l quality. Now with Chris Waller, his trial leading in was outstanding and 1500m first up, down in the weights with a soft trip, I think he’ll only run well.

7 Monegal (Bet Now: $51.00) is a ripper for Theresa Bateup. Was over a month between runs when racing in the Winter Stakes three weeks back and I thought did a good job from off the speed behind the very much in form Taksu. She has upside to come, like her up in trip and can settle closer in the run.

7 Easy Single (Bet Now: $3.70) can bounce back. His last couple of runs have come at Randwick, two back beaten a lip by Siege before racing three weeks ago where he had a suck run behind Conscript and tried hard, but that horse got control in front and was too good. This guy is holding his form and with weight relief, is hard to beat.

3 Enchanted Heart (Bet Now: $6.50) does boast a wet track win over Lost And Running, so that clearly reads well for this. Her last couple of runs have come on firm decks but she clearly likes getting her feet wet, so she gets conditions to suit here and can easily bounce back into the winners list.

2 Rocketing By (Bet Now: $8.00) is a talented son of So You Think resuming for David Pfieffer and his best is clearly good enough. He hasn’t raced since the Spring when down the track in the Sydney Stakes on Everest Day behind Big Parade. He handles all conditions and with two trials under the belt, I’d suggest he’s ready to go.

9 Nerone (Bet Now: $6.00) has found winning form and he can certainly hold it. He ran at the midweeks at Sandown and lapped up the bog, tracking up with purpose out wide under Willow before letting down best and drawing clear late to win nicely. Harder here, but he’s found winning form and is hard to beat.

1 Titanium Power (Bet Now: $4.60) will jump on the bunny and run a bold race. He did that at Randwick three weeks back and tried his guts out, but was no match late for Cross Talk, who I think is Stakes class. Should find the front comfortably and if the track is mad leader bias, he’ll take catching.

7 Silent Agenda (Bet Now: $15.00) is a stablemate of Titanium Power that has come back in really good order. He attempted to lead throughout two weeks back here over 1400m and tried his guts out. Just couldn’t quite get there when third to Bold Mac. Tricky draw, but slides forward and will give cheek.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 14 Aramis

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Kanazawa

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 11 Zaru

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 14

Leg Two: 7, 9, 10, 12

Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 10

Leg Four: 1, 7, 9, 10, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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