31/10/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Victoria Derby day

It’s Christmas Day ll – Derby Day at Flemington. Nine races, all at Stakes level, four at Group l level, including the Victoria Derby (2500m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Victoria Derby 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Victoria Derby

Coolmore Stud Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Coolmore Stud Stakes

Melbourne Cup 🏆: View the Odds for the Melbourne Cup

With 4 Embolism (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS). Danny O’Brien trained three year old that comes here in winning form after giving his rivals a spanking at Caulfield on Blue Sapphire Day. On paper, didn’t beat much, but Confrontational came out to win the Geelong Classic, so the form has been ticked off somewhat, and he is on his home track with upside and timing.

3 Aysar (Bet Now: $2.05 TOP ODDS) has the runs on the board. He was very good from the back in the Guineas Prelude before contesting the Caulfield Guineas where he did plenty of work in the run yet kept finding the line and was very good in defeat when beaten narrowly by Ole Kirk. Provided that hasn’t busted him, he’s got the form on the board.

7 So Let’s Toast (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is racing as if he will appreciate the mile. John McArdle trained three year old that ran in the Gothic two weeks ago at Caulfield and worked home strongly from the back when third to Endanger, beaten 1.5L. Smaller field should help his cause and he is racing as if he will love the rise to 1600m. Knockout chance.

1 Personal (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) looks one of the better bets on the card. Was keen on her being a Thousand Guineas filly, and while she ran a strong second to Odeum in that race, she lacked a turn of foot, and has done so all prep. She is racing like she wants a trip, so this looks a perfect race for her and I think she can stamp herself as a key threat to Montefilia for the Oaks.

9 Victoria Quay (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is the main threat I feel. Team McEvoy trained filly who comes through a very fast run Hill Smith Stakes at Morphettville from three weeks ago. They walked, but had to given the early burn. This filly sat back and charged late, just missing out on picking up Ain’tnodeeldun, who would have nearly been favourite for the Derby, so that form reads well, and that fast run race should be an ideal springboard to this 2000m assignment.

6 Salto Angel (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is a leading chance. Danny O’Brien trained filly that comes through the Ethereal from two weeks ago where she sat back off a slow speed and tried hard, but couldn’t get past leader Chica Fuerte, who got control in front and was too good. Think this girl is heading in the right direction towards the Oaks and is hard to beat here.

1 Coruscate (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) can continue his winning ways. James Cummings trained gelding that is 2/2 this time in, both over 1200m at Caulfield. Resumed with a dominant Testa Rossa win before racing on Blue Sapphire Day when given a sweet steer by Olly and he was far too good. Harder here, but think he’s earned a crack.

9 Octane (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) is a little query at a strong 1200m, but Phillip Stokes has done a great job with him and I think he has earned a crack. Ran in the Schillaci three weeks ago and was very good in defeat when a close up third to Dirty Work, who of course ran third in the Manikato, so the form reads well…just has to run a strong 1200m.

4 Kemalpasa (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) won this race last year and he looks set up really well to win it again. Hasn’t raced since the Gilgai, where they didn’t exactly break the clock early, but the last 600m was very slick and he kept finding the line when a close up third to Zoutori. Like the mini freshen up, lands near the front and will try hard.

Even with the 61kg impost, 1 Ashrun (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) clearly looks the one to beat. Made his Australian debut in the Geelong Cup last Wednesday and I loved the way he kept finding the line in defeat when fourth to Steel Prince in an excellent first up effort. He’ll come right on from that and this race looks significantly weaker overall. Keen.

11 Admire Robson (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) can force his way into the Melbourne Cup with a win here. Former Japanese galloper that comes through the Bart Cummings. He was well specked at a price and I thought he ended up being a little unlucky not to be in the finish behind Persan. Looks a real target race for him and I think only runs well.

5 Sound (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is on the quick back up after racing last Saturday in the Moonee Valley Cup. He just went too keen in the run and had nothing left for the finale, so forget he went around behind Miami Bound. He’s better than that, and prior form was good. Love Jamie Kah going back on, so think he can bounce back.

Is 1 Mystic Journey (Bet Now: $3.80) back? Bounced back to her brilliant best when winning the Stocks Stakes on Moir Night at the Valley, wearing down Perfect Jewel. Being able to go home and recover/prepare for raceday has helped her immensely, and overall, the depth here is thin…my only niggle is in the fair dinkum department, she beat nothing last start. But, she has class.

12 Odeum (Bet Now: $3.30) has to be respected here for the Price/Kent stable. Lovely ride from Michael Walker to land this girl in the plum spot when she raced in the Thousand Guineas and she was much too good for her rivals in a dominant display. Gets down the three year old weight for this race and loses nothing with Jye McNeil to ride.

13 Chica Fuerte (Bet Now: $20.00) is a filly I’m wary of here. Team Freedman trained filly that comes back to to the mile after leading throughout to win the Ethereal at Caulfield over 2000m two weeks ago. Back in trip I do find interesting for her, but she’s got the three year old weight, lands near the front and I think runs a big race.

14 September Run (Bet Now: $4.20) has looked a Group l filly her past two outings and I think she can confirm that with a win here. Those two starts have seen her win both times, each coming down the straight here, and each time she has smashed the clock in the process. Tick over jumpout was quite strong and I think she’ll take a power of beating.

2 Wild Ruler (Bet Now: $5.50) has done nothing wrong this time in, winning 2/2. Resumed with a strong win at Rosehill before going to the Roman Consul where he chased the speed but was too classy and won quite well with something in reserve. Stable are a great Grand Final yard and this guy has real timing about him.

12 Swats That (Bet Now: $9.00) is three weeks between runs for the Corstens camp since winning the Thoroughbred Club at Caulfield, beating up the fillies and was strong to the line and through it in winning. Form around her reads super and she is trained on the track, so she knows the straight course very well. Hard to beat.

5 Young Werther… (Bet Now: $3.90) dear me. Horrendous watch if you were on him. Should have won. Simple as that. Olly made a poor decision to stay inside and from the 400m onwards, it was nightmare stuff. He’s a really good horse and for the past couple of weeks, punters have singled him out in early markets. Hope they are right.

1 Cherry Tortoni (Bet Now: $4.40) is on the seven day back up for the Patrick Payne after scoring an impressive win last Saturday in the Vase at the Valley. He was there to be run down, but showed good fighting qualities late to get the job done. Has to be a query at 2500m, but a drop of rain won’t hurt, and he looks like he saves his best for Flemington.

Finally… they put the Blinkers on 14 Kenzan (Bet Now: $71.00) and despite being a near rank outsider, I reckon he’s a winning chance. He’ll have no trouble running 2500m because he looks a bit one paced and will stay all day. He’s been a bit wayward at his past couple, so love the Blinkers going on and he does no work from the gate.

Provided the track is no worse than a Soft5, then I think 9 Rock (Bet Now: $8.00) is the one to beat. I thought he was great in a fast run Epsom. Spotted them a big start, was wide throughout yet kept finding the line and actually produced the best last 200m of the race. Can sit much closer in the run from the draw…just doesn’t want too much rain.

Forgive a good horse for one poor run and I think you have to do that with 16 King’s Legacy (Bet Now: $17.00). He was well backed late when racing in the Caulfield Guineas and on face value he was plain behind Ole Kirk, but was found to have had a throat issue post race, so a clear excuse there. He’s got 51kg on his back, Bossy has that Group l form and touch now and should love a strongly run mile.

1 Fifty Stars (Bet Now: $17.00) is flying for the Hayes/Dabernig team and I think class can get him home. Ran in the Moonga at Caulfield two weeks ago and stayed on strongly in defeat when third to Wild Planet, beaten 2.6L. Third up at the mile looks a good set up for him en route to the Mackinnon and a drop of rain wouldn’t hurt his chances here.

8 Fituese (Bet Now: $4.20) to turn the tables on California Zimbol. The John Thompson trained mare was asked to chase from a fair way out in the Alinghi and to her credit, she did try very hard, but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second. She’s going well and third up now, she’ll be hard fit and prove one of the hardest to beat.

4 California Zimbol (Bet Now: $4.80) is an absolute beauty for the Snowden camp. Puts herself near the speed and tries her heart out, which was the case two weeks ago at Caulfield when proving too good for Fituese in the Alinghi. Does she want a rise to 1200m now? Perhaps, but hard to knock the way she has returned.

12 Bless Her (Bet Now: $9.00) is an absolute beauty for the Shea Eden team that really came of age during the Winter. Went from a Sale maiden to finishing runner up in a Cockram behind Perfect Jewel in what was a fast run race. Has been kept on ice to be saved for the Carnival and I think she’ll give these better performed Mares a run for their money.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Ashrun

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 12 September Run

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 9 Rock

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 12, 14

Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 14

Leg Three: 1, 9, 13, 15, 16

Leg Four: 3, 4, 8, 12

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful