4/10/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

Night racing continues at The Valley this Friday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

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9 Hustle (Bet Now: $11.00) looks a big price I feel and I am happy to speck her in the opener. Corstens/Larkin trained filly that comes here for the debut off the back of solid jumpout work, the latest being an all the way win at Flemington and seemingly moved well enough to my eye. Lands near the front from the gate and I don’t see the depth here being overly deep.

6 The Grumpy Bear (Bet Now: $4.40) is a gelding with talent I feel. Kennewell/Yeomans trains this son of Brutal, who was kept quite safe in betting when on debut at Bendigo. He was near the speed throughout and tried hard but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to Durova. Better for the run and strikes a winnable race.

1 Brandjam (Bet Now: $6.00) is a son of Alabama Express which should be better for the debut run when racing over 1000m at Mornington when attempting to lead throughout and giving a decent sight but couldn’t quite see it through. Maps well to be near the front and up to 1200m, I think, should be fine.

Bludger of a race but I am siding with 5 Muktamil (Bet Now: $3.70). Not sure he beat a great deal at Sandown last time but he lapped up the 2400m and was quite dominant late in the piece, being very strong at the end so 3000m looks ideal and the depth here is very much on the thin side.

4 Privileged Son (Bet Now: $3.40) should love the rise to 3000m. He ran over 2500m at Flemington last time out where he got back to near last in the run but tracked into the race with purpose before finding clear air and found the line well enough in defeat I thought behind Fighting Arrow. In the right camp and has upside/progression.

9 Peaky Ridge (Bet Now: $51.00) is racing like 3000m will be fine. I was quite keen on her over 2400m at Swan Hill last time but just lacked change up speed when asked but she stayed on and was quite good in defeat. Gets right down in the weights after the claim and 3000m looks ideal. Must for exotics.

6 Under And Over (Bet Now: $2.90) looks the map horse and with clear air, she’ll take holding out. She hasn’t raced since Nov 24 over this track/distance when just off the speed and kept finding the line but couldn’t quite get there when third to Our Cracklin Rosie. Maps to get leaders back and with clear air, will take holding out.

4 Wakanjeja (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Phillip Stokes trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since May 18 at Flemington when pulling up with EIPH so forgive and forget the run behind Niance. She is a mare who can sprint well on the fresh side and has jumped out well leading in.

5 Aminatu (Bet Now: $17.00) tends to save her best for The Valley and with the gate, I dare say she’ll lead and take running down. She was a bit tardy away at Bendigo last time and had to do work to land near the speed, feeling the pinch late. If she leads and gets some form of control, she’ll take running down.

2 Up And Under (Bet Now: $5.50) is a quirky animal but I am convinced he has talent. He has good talent but he just has a funny action and doesn’t exactly know how to race properly, but his form in Sydney does read very well for a race like this and going to take a chance with him.

4 The Genius (Bet Now: $5.50) has good upside/improvement and comes here off a first up win over 2000m at Cranbourne where he was given a peach by Shinn, ridden with intent early and that was the difference between winning and losing, winning quite impressively. Fitter, he only runs well I say.

3 Karburan (Bet Now: $14.00) should appreciate a rise in trip for Busuttin/Young. He resumed over the mile at Sale where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, he kept finding the line and was good in defeat when third to Electric Impulse. Has good room for improvement and off the return, rates highly I say.

12 Musgrave (Bet Now: $7.00) has a good record at The Valley and with clear air, takes beating I say. Ciaron Maher trained gelding that ran over 1700m at Warrnambool where he got held up at times but that said, he was never a factor in an on pace dominated affair won by Unfair Dismissal. Up to 2040m, with clear air, he’ll take holding out.

14 Tewkesbury (Bet Now: $2.30) is a leading contender. Team McEvoy trains this gelding, who is finding it hard to win but that said, is racing really well at present. He ran over 2000m at Ballarat when off the speed but tracked up and loomed but couldn’t quite get there when second to Queen Takes King. Has run well at the track/distance previously, commands respect I say.

1 Bit Of A Rebel (Bet Now: $8.00) was knocking on the door to win and now he’s found winning form, he can go on with it. That win came in the Mindarie-Halidon Cup, leading throughout and credit to him, he was there to be beaten but he found under pressure. Hard fit and in form, he appeals as a key chance.

9 Rumours Abound (Bet Now: $6.00) on top for me. Ron Stubbs rarely gets it wrong when he comes to Melbourne and he brings this mare here. She resumes after a run at Sandown on June 19 over 1000m when leading and just feeling the pinch late behind Go To Hollywood. Looks suited to the 955m and has trialled up well for the return.

5 Fission (Bet Now: $5.50) tends to save his best for the track/distance and maps ideally. He ran over 1000m at Sandown last time when back near last in the run and worked home with real purpose late in the piece behind Isthmus. If he can hold a forward spot from the gate, he takes beating.

11 Jewel Bay (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Team Hayes trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, with her last run coming over 975m at Swan Hill when wide no cover on speed and that early burn just told on her late in the piece. Has jumped out well and does have a very strong fresh record. Hard to beat I say.

9 Persian Spirit (Bet Now: $2.80) looks to have returned in really good order for Symon Wilde and should prove hard to beat after a first up win at Geelong where the market gravitated towards him late in the piece and was proven spot on, proving too good. Fitter and up to 1200m, he should be one of the hardest to beat.

10 Wolfgang (Bet Now: $9.50) is a very interesting runner. Kennewell/Yeomans trained three year old that resumes and returns to racing as a gelding, having not raced since Feb 17 at Flemington when contesting the Talindert and was outclassed but far from disgraced behind Aardvark. Trialled up well for the return and his best is more than good enough. Watch the market.

7 Sparkling (Bet Now: $7.50) is a tick under three weeks between runs for Matt Laurie since racing down the straight at Flemington when off the speed and kept finding the line in a really good effort I thought behind Moby Dick. Back to a bending track, can settle much closer in the run and takes beating.

1 He’ll Rip (Bet Now: $2.90) is the way I am leaning in the get out. Corstens/Larkin trained gelding that ran over 1400m at Flemington where he got into a decent spot off the speed and worked home well enough when second to a handy horse in Saban. The rise in trip is fine and third up from a spell, he should just about be hard fit, ready to go.

11 Hartman (Bet Now: $7.00) commands some level of respect for Chris Waller. He sat on speed at Geelong last time and tried his guts out but just couldn’t quite finish the job when fourth to My Roca Fella. That was over 1755m and that should hold him in good stead for this 1600m assignment.

6 Super Solar (Bet Now: $9.50) is one of the key prospects. This gelding ran over the mile at Seymour last time when on speed throughout and was there to win when asked for the effort but just whacked to the line when third to Heavenly Eagle. Good racing style, hard fit, in form, he’s in with a definite shout.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 6 Under And Over

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 9 Persian Spirit

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 9 Hustle

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 8, 12, 14

Leg Two: 5, 6, 9, 11

Leg Three: 9

Leg Four: 1, 6, 7, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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