4/11/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Hawkesbury, Ladies Day Cup day

Oaks Day racing in NSW heads to Hawkesbury where it is Ladies Day Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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I like 1 First Peoples (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) here in the opening event on the card. On debut for Sam Kavanagh and interesting to note he hasn’t trialled with the stable, but with Daniel Robinson. He did look quite sharp in a couple of trials, enough to suggest he can make a winning debut.

2 Hypnosis (Bet Now: $2.05 TOP ODDS) has the best race day form around him and was scratched from an easier race on Tuesday in preference for this. He resumed at Nowra when on speed, away from the fence, which is an awful spot to be, and he battled on okay to run third. Hard to beat on speed.

5 Zohan (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a Zoustar four year old that returns to racing as a gelding. Form around him when he last raced doesn’t read too bad for a race like this. Gelded and thought he closed off okay in a recent Randwick trial. If he’s within range, he can threaten at a likely decent price.

I’m pretty keen here on 3 Mr Burgundy (Bet Now: $2.40 TOP ODDS), on debut for Will Freedman. They don’t trial much better than he did at Muswellbrook, leading throughout. Visually looked great and across 11 1000m trials for the morning, he ran the fastest time without being fully extended. Off that, he looks the winner here.

6 Moon Reader (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1100m for Brad Widdup. Unwanted in betting when debuting over 900m at Newcastle. She didn’t get the best of luck in the straight but had her chance I thought when third. Home track advantage from a soft draw, she’s in with a shout.

2 Tales Of Conflict (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Time For War on debut for Terry Croft. Had a trial in late September with Garry White before being sent to Croft. His trial came a couple of weeks back here behind First Peoples, who goes around in the first, so you’ll know by jump time here how strong that form is.

She might need one more, but I’m with 2 Etheridge (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) for John Thompson. This mare resumed over 1550m on the Kenso track at Randwick and to the eye, it was just a run, but she was first up over an unsuitable trip and when the leader went a tick over 33 for the last 600m, those behind had no chance. Much better suited here up in trip, winner at the track and has more upside than most.

1 Seduction Queen (Bet Now: $1.70 TOP ODDS) is a little query at 2100m, but she is a mare in form for Team Freedman. Lovely ride from Parr saw her win over 1800m here last time and she was really dominant in the run to the line, suggesting that a rise to 2100m won’t be an issue, and this is a winnable race.

3 Microna (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited up in trip. He ran over 1800m on the Kenso track last time out and battled on pretty well on a rock hard track when fourth to the in form Mightybeel. Has a liking for Hawkesbury, lands in a plum spot from the draw and is a definite winning chance.

9 Sheer Treasure (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) for me. Team Hawkes trained mare that resumed in a strong Class 1 and ran a beauty in defeat from off the speed when third to Norwegian Bliss, who won last week at Canterbury at metro level, so the form reads very well and back to maiden grade, she appeals big time.

2 For Valour (Bet Now: $1.45 TOP ODDS) will put himself on speed and give his all. Was on speed first up over 1300m here and gave a good kick under Clark, but couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow second. Fitter and up to 1500m, he should be leading and proving quite hard to get past.

4 Sir Savaluca (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) isn’t far off a maiden win for Joe Pride. Heavily backed last start at Orange when attempting to lead throughout and gave a strong kick, but was nabbed in the final few strides. Not sure he’s got the class of some these to win, but one for exotics.

1 Quiet Riot (Bet Now: $4.00) looks hard to beat here. Bjorn Baker trained gelding that was kept quite safe in betting fresh at Warwick Farm and to the eye, he was terrible, but was found to be 1/5 lame post race. Has since trialled and he went like a jet in a strong trial. I think he can bounce back hard, especially with the claim.

5 Daichi (Bet Now: $2.70) is a Maurice three year old for Team Snowden that resumes. He had two runs in the Winter to start his career, both times on wet ground, the second start being a good maiden win at Gosford. First time he’ll face firm ground here and thought his trial, in a strong heat, was a good piece of work.

7 Celestial Doll (Bet Now: $12.00) is a first four threat. This mare resumed on testing ground at Narromine and was never really a winning threat, but her finale was more than sound I thought from the back. If the inside gate is used to advantage, I think she’s in with a shout here.

Market will be fascinating with 1 Cross Talk (Bet Now: $1.40) but I reckon he goes pretty good. Former Kiwi that makes his Australian debut for the WaterBott camp off the back of a debut win at New Plymouth in NZ back in May when bolting up on wet ground. Couple of trials to get ready, stable is in form and he looks well placed here.

6 Kung Fu Mushu (Bet Now: $3.80) should appreciate the rise to 1400m. Team Snowden trained gelding that resumed over 1300m here where he settled off the speed before being presented clear air and letting down with purpose to nail them near the line. Tempo should be genuine, he’ll get his chance.

4 Dashing ‘N’ Daring (Bet Now: $7.00) is a ripper for Kylie Gavenlock. He ran over 1400m at Newcastle last start in what looked a strong 68. He was back near last in the run and never really a factor, but worked home strongly to finish fourth. He’ll need luck from the gate, but he’s racing well.

Gee I’m keen on 8 Wheelhouse (Bet Now: $2.25), despite the 1200m-1600m query. He resumed in the Sydney Stakes in what was more or less a prep run but he ran a beauty I thought behind Big Parade in an excellent return. Might want one more, but just have to be with him.

1 Quackerjack (Bet Now: $3.00) looks the map horse with a potentially soft lead on the cards. Resumed over 1400m at Randwick when near the speed throughout and despite being first up, he stuck to the task pretty well in defeat I thought when fourth to Exoboom. Good second up record, lands in front and will take catching.

6 Mohican Heights (Bet Now: $20.00) can sneak a first four spot at a big price. I reckon Waller has eyes on the Summer staying races coming up and I think that is his level. Was looking like a potential Metropolitan but was given a break after a luckless Wyong Cup run. Not sure he wins, but one for multiples.

Not a great deal of confidence in the get out. Leaning towards 3 Just A Jedi (Bet Now: $6.50) for the Ryan/Alexiou camp. His two runs back from a break have been sound to my eye. Resumed at Newcastle and was a definite pass mark behind Nitride. He then went to the Kenso track when ridden a touch warm and just failed to finish it off. That was a strong 72 in town. Now back to a moderate 68, I think he can get into the winners list.

2 Free Rider (Bet Now: $4.00) is a handy animal that is having his first run for Todd Howlett after formerly being with Paul Messara. Hasn’t raced since September 24 when a dominant winner over 1400m at Scone. Now with Howlett, looked to trial okay on the Beaumont track at Newcastle and does get in well after the claim.

The best version of 8 Buba (Bet Now: $2.60) is certainly capable. I was keen on her at Scone last time and on face value, i thought she was plain, but given they ran home in 33.6 last 600m, she ran as well as she could have. Gets run of the race from the draw and gets a significant jockey upgrade.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 3 Mr Burgundy

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 8 Wheelhouse

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 2 Etheridge

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6

Leg Three: 1, 8

Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 8

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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