4/4/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield

Nine races will be run and won at Caulfield on Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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10 Forever Free (Bet Now: $2.00 TOP ODDS) looks the way to go in the first. The Ellerton/Zahra stable trains this filly, who was heavily backed when debuting over 1100m at Ballarat and the bets were landed. Led throughout under Lane and despite it seemingly being a soft/easy win, the time she ran was much quicker than the other 1100m race on the same day. Looks the leader and is hard to run down.

The class of 1 Ideas Man (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) will carry him a long way. Talented colt for the Maher/Eustace stable that was solid in defeat in the Chairmans before contesting the Blue Diamond where he was down the track behind Tagaloa but far from disgraced. Been freshened up and looked to move really well in a jumpout here.

3 Boom Daddy (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained juvenile that resumes. This bloke has been given a good break, having not raced since Oaks Day at Flemington when down the track in the Maribyrnong Plate. Liked the way he went in a recent jumpout and overall, this doesn’t look the strongest race going around. Hard to beat I feel.

Looks really good placement by Phillip Stokes when it comes to 7 Good Idea (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS). He comes through the Adelaide Cup when given a 12/10 steer by Ben Thompson and loomed large to win, but was clearly no match late for King Of Leogrance. Don’t think back to 2400m will be an issue for him and that form is clearly A1 for this.

1 Inverloch (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) is racing so well at the moment for the Busuttin/Young stable. Lovely front running ride from Mick Dee saw him win the Mornington Cup Prelude before backing up a week later where he attempted to lead all the way and it took a good one to get past him in Aktau. Looks the leader again and is tough to run down.

3 Stars Of Carrum (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is knocking on the door to win one and I think he gets a great chance here. Far from disgraced in the Mornington Cup Prelude in a race totally not run to suit behind Inverloch before backing up a week later in the big one and worked home strongly when fourth to Aktau. Got room for improvement and is hard to beat.

Nick Ryan has 8 Battle Torque (Bet Now: $61.00 TOP ODDS) bursting to win a race and he gets a great chance here. Former WA galloper that has had three runs in Melbourne, the latest at the midweek meeting at Flemington when surging hard from the back and just missing out on picking up Jumbo Ozaki. Crying out for 1600m, but a fast run 1400m should be okay. Just hope he’s within range on the turn.

5 Grinzinger Star (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Reliable Man for Danny O’Brien that resumes. Talented four year old that hasn’t raced since Stakes Day during Cup Week at Flemington over 2000m when down the track behind Savvy Oak after seemingly getting every chance. Recent Geelong jumpout was solid, likes Caulfield, and has a touch of class.

4 Arty Lucas (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is a Paul Preusker trained stayer that resumes. Hasn’t raced since the Horsham Cup back in October when a solid second to the then in form Wetakemanhattan and to be fair was at the end of a long prep. Showed really sharp change up speed in a recent Horsham jumpout and he will love give in the track.

Going to give 6 Sophia’s Choice (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) another chance. Robert Kingston trains this filly, who probably hasn’t reached the level that was expected after such a promising Spring prep. On face value, despite running third, she was terrible last start at Morphettville behind Holy Dancer, but was found to be lame post race, so there were excuses. Dwayne Dunn is back on and he seems to really click with her, and on her Spring form, she’d be the one to beat.

9 Modear (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Helmet for Patrick Payne that comes through the Sangria race from Flemington and I thought her effort was quite good considering she was back in the field and in a tricky spot but didn’t mind the way she finished her race off. Much better suited here I feel and is a knockout chance for sure.

7 Tycoon Bella (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) can bounce back here for sure. Was keen on her when she resumed at Sandown a couple of Wednesdays back but for mine, think she just did that bit too much work on speed and condition blew out late when fifth to a handy galloper in Peak. She’ll take good improvement from that, up in trip, and her form from the Spring does read well.

1 Excess Funds (Bet Now: $6.50) is the class runner of the field. Three weeks between runs since taking out the Inglis Dash at this track/distance under a lovely ride from Hugh Bowman, timing his run to perfection and was too good. Gets the claim after the claim for Poy. Just where he gets to from the barrier is the big unknown.

3 Absolute Flirt (Bet Now: $5.50) is a leading chance here for the in form Danny O’Brien team. Was confidently backed when resuming down the Flemington straight and the bets almost landed. Just failed to pick the sharp Snowden filly Sangria in a tight finish. Form around her does read well and off the resumption, has to be hard to beat here.

10 Knowles (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Jason Warren trained filly that had trialled up very well prior to resuming over 1000m at Ballarat where she was wide no cover on speed but it was a slowly run affair. Turned it into a real dash home and she was far too good in that set up, running a tick over 32 for her final 600m. Draws wide, but if she gets luck, looks hard to beat.

1 Malibu Style (Bet Now: $8.00) each way for me. He’s a beauty for Neville Parnham that is resuming. Hasn’t raced since the Darley Classic when down the track behind Nature Strip. Has had two jumpouts in readiness for his resumption, the latest at Geelong and looked pretty good to the eye. Loves wet ground, lands on speed and gets the claim for the form rider in Victoria at the moment, Tom Stockdale.

6 Diamond Effort (Bet Now: $2.60) is flying for Clinton McDonald and is hard to beat here despite coming back to 1000m. Lovely ride from Melham saw her take out the Hareeba, wearing down a very gallant Runson. The knock is back to 1000m and drawing wide. But if the forecast for rain is right, I think she’ll come right into play here.

5 Ashlor (Bet Now: $11.00) is a tough nut for Dan McCarthy who busts his gut out every time he steps out. Hasn’t raced since contesting the Echuca Cup when near the speed and fighting on strongly when third to Hanger, who ran well at Rosehill last Saturday, so the form doesn’t read too bad. Lands on speed, tries hard and will be hard to run down.

8 Russian Camelot (Bet Now: $2.45) is a Danny O’Brien trained three year old who has been touted as a Derby horse since day one. Resumed over 1400m at Flemington four weeks ago where he was tardy away, which pretty much sealed his fate. Thought he did a very good job to get as close as he did to Spend given the set up of the race, which was clearly against him. Clearly one of the hardest to beat up to 1600m.

Enormous respect to 4 Beehunter (Bet Now: $5.00). Was backed as if unbeatable when racing at the midweeks at Sandown a couple of weeks ago and despite sitting last and forced widest in a slowly run affair, he picked them up very quickly in a sustained run and was just so impressive. If he can stretch it out to the mile, very hard to hold out.

6 Vegas Knight (Bet Now: $17.00) has to be given another chance. Comes through the Mornington Guineas and while in the form guide it says he beat one runner home in a field of 14, but it was pretty much a barrier trial for him. Just had no luck at all and clearly should have finished much closer. Been hit and miss this prep, but at his best, clearly in the mix.

7 Benitoite (Bet Now: $2.25) looks one of the better placed runners in Australia on Saturday. Was well specked at odds last time out in the Group l Coolmore Classic and though well beaten by Con Te Partiro, she toughed it out well to finish fourth. Back home, miles back in depth and again finds wet ground, so she’s really hard to beat.

5 My Pendant (Bet Now: $5.50) looks the key threat. Danny O’Brien trains this mare, who is a month between runs since contesting the Matron Stakes where she got back in the run and couldn’t really get involved behind Paint The Town Two. That form, so far, has been rubbish, but like her back to this level and onto a potentially rain affected track is a big tick.

Matty Brown has done a fab job with 4 Exasperate (Bet Now: $6.00). Keeping this horse on the fresh side seems to be really working. Had a few weeks off prior to racing at this track/distance three weeks ago where he sat back in the run before peeling wider on the turn and in a driving go finished best. Rises in grade, but hard to knock the way he’s going.

Is 10 Yourdeel (Bet Now: $9.00) back on track? Hadn’t done a great deal since his 2YO days, but ran in the Mornington Guineas where he was back in the run but thought he closed his race off with purpose in an encouraging sign, finishing fourth. If he can improve off that, think he’s got to be a leading chance against these.

3 Lord Belvedere (Bet Now: $6.50) is a big watch for me. Quality, quality stayer that resumes for the Maher/Eustace team. Hasn’t been seen since July 20 at Flemington when giving his rivals a spanking over 2500m and it was then where he looked a potential Cups horse. Dodged the Spring and most of the Autumn and returns here off a very good trial/jumpout work. If the market likes him, have to put something on.

11 Fanciful Toff (Bet Now: $11.00) has a really good second up record so including him. Resumed in the Nudge Bar race at Mornington where he pretty much held his position throughout but the run was still good given he was first up over a trip clearly short of his best. Good second up record and up to 2000m looks a big tick for him.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 7 Benitoite

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 10 Yourdeel

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 8 Battle Torque

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 14

Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 8

Leg Three: 5, 7

Leg Four: 1, 3, 10, 11, 13

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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