4/5/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

Nine races will be run and won at Flemington on Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eleven metres for the entire circuit.

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See no reason to say 2 Moldova (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) can’t win again. Did have specking at odds when debuting over 1100m at Bendigo, into $19 from $21, but she won like an odds pop, showing brilliant sustained speed from the front and gave nothing else a look in. Draws out, so Prebble can do his own thing with this girl and is trained here, so would have had a look or two down the straight.

1 Maqsad (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) has been pretty good in two career outings to date for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Narrow but strong win on debut at Seymour in what has been a decent form race. She then contested the Dequetteville where she had every chance on speed but found Li’l Kontra too good. Not sure she’s 100% up to that level yet so like her here against this lot.

4 Feign (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) is a Robbie Griffiths trained filly who had trialled well at Cranbourne prior to resuming at Bendigo where not much went right for her, getting shuffled back further than I reckon connections would have liked and the leader/winner Moldova just pinched it. Is bred to be a good one and has shown talent both on race day and in trials, so giving her a look.

Despite taking on the older horses, I like the Chris Waller trained 13 Phoneme (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS). Resumed over 1400m at Caulfield three weeks ago where he tried hard but was no match for the brilliant finale of Tarwin, who franked the form in the VOBIS Sires last Saturday. Looks really well suited up to the mile on a track he is proven at and will take plenty of beating for mine.

5 Gold Mag (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a horse I can’t trust and usually needs a bog track, something he won’t get here, but he’s a last start winner and is racing as if this set up will suit. Lovely ride from Bowman to win over the mile at Warwick Farm last time despite the horse wanting to throw the win away. Perhaps now his confidence is up, he can go on with it? Rather watch than back though despite a nice tick over trial.

6 Mount Kilcoy (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) would bolt up here if he ran to his best but it’s just a real unknown as to where he is at. Had a couple of months off prior to racing over 1400m at Caulfield three weeks ago where he got back and was okay without jumping up and down behind the in form Call It A Day. 1600m on the bigger track, on previous form, says he goes close to winning…just not sure how well he’s going.

Happy to be with the Danny O’Brien trained 8 Fabric (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS). Huge effort to win the maiden first up at Geelong before going to Sandown where nothing really went her way, getting held up for most of the straight before eventually getting clear and flashing late behind Fidelia. 1400m on the home track third up looks a perfect scenario and she’ll do me here.

1 Fidelia (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) won that race mentioned above at Sandown and I thought she was most impressive in winning given she too was held up but the run did come her way and she was very strong at the end of the race, so like Fabric, she will be suited at 1400m. Does meet Fabric 2.5kg worse off and does’t have as much upside, but does have class on her side.

7 Neighbourhood (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) looks a nice filly for the Jusufovic team. Had trialled well prior to debuting on her home track at Cranbourne where she was given a sweet steer by Dee, settling just off the speed before presenting on the turn and she put pay to them quickly and loved the way she attacked the line the final few strides, suggesting 1400m will be fine. Definite chance.

Just want to see a market push with 6 Another Dollar (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS), a quality mare for Chris Waller resuming. She hasn’t raced since the Spring where she had just the two runs, including a first up run behind subsequent Group l winner Best Of Days. Not really noted as a fresh horse, but her recent Werribee jumpout was very good, gets a soft gate and Froggy can hopefully stand over her and lift her home.

Think 1400m and the bigger track looks a good set up for 4 Addictive Nature (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS). This Danny O’Brien trained galloper was kept very safe in betting when resuming at Caulfield but I reckon 1200m around that track just found him out but the effort was more than sound behind Haunted. 1400m on the bigger track with the run under the belt, he’ll take some beating.

1 Fastnet Tempest (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) has been a bit of tease for a while now but I don’t think a win is too far away. Ran in the Victoria Handicap last start where he was looking to be bolting and threatening to win but for mine he just didn’t get the proper clear air to let down when a close up third to Streets Of Avalon. Bigger track now, so hopefully he gets clear air to let down.

Concede the fav is hard to beat, but I think the value clearly lies with the Richard Laming trained 6 Zuoy’s Comet (Bet Now: $20.00). Made a mess of them first up at Cranbourne before going to the 1700m here on Anzac Day. He wasn’t unlucky in the sense he should have won, but should have finished closer. Was building the revs nicely but just got stopped in his tracks the final 100m. Gets Lachie King, a wide gate so hopefully clear air, and 1×3 at $20/thereabouts, perhaps more, that’ll be the bet for me.

1 Gringzinger Star (Bet Now: $2.30) looks to be heading in the right direction and is a leading contender for the SA Derby. Lovely steer from Olly saw him win over this trip at Caulfield two weeks ago where he settled just off the speed before pouncing in the straight and proving too good. Creeping up in the weights, but looks a leading chance for this and indeed the Derby.

Was really impressed by the way 15 Wealthy Wolf (Bet Now: $26.00) surged from the back to win his maiden at Cranbourne. Looked in a nasty spot on the turn but Johnny Allen got him to the outside and he really attacked the line to get the win. He’s got a stack of improvement/upside left in the tank, draws out so he’ll get a clear run and Jye McNeil is riding in super form at the moment.

She’s just a beauty is 4 Lady Pluck (Bet Now: $3.10) and hard to get away from her. Was a month between runs when racing over 1100m at Caulfield last time when wide with cover before presenting in the straight and finishing best to win impressively in a race which has already produced a couple of winners. Like her back up to 1200m and despite first look down the straight, she has class/quality, along with a brilliant turn of foot when getting the right set up.

5 Poised To Strike (Bet Now: $4.20) has been up a fair while for the Hayes/Dabernig team but he’s still racing pretty well. Last run came over 1200m at Caulfield when held up a touch but for the most part, he had his chance when second to Morrissy. Career best run came when winning down the Flemington straight, and he draws out with the claim, so he’s likeable for sure.

13 Mumbles (Bet Now: $11.00) is a three year old for the in form Daniel Bowman team that had specking when resuming over 1200m at Caulfield two weeks ago where he was wide with cover and when brought wider, he looked the winner. Just reckon his condition gave out the last 75-100m when third to Morrissy. That should bring him right on for this and lone run down the straight was a ripper in the Inglis Dash.

Looks pretty straight forward here with 3 Steel Prince (Bet Now: $1.75), who should register another win on the board. He didn’t beat much last time out at Caulfield but I just loved the way he put pay to them on the turn and he didn’t stop. He kept going and charged through the line at the end of 2425m suggesting that 2600m here will be no issue, and I think he just wins.

Paul Preusker said during the week that this race is pretty much a barrier trial for 1 Surprise Baby (Bet Now: $7.50), so can’t say that would fill me with confidence to back him, but he does have class on his side given he is a last start winner of the Adelaide Cup at start six, which speaks volumes of the talent this bloke. I’d say watch for him to run on in readiness for the Andrew Ramsden.

Bigger track and fitter should see an improved showing from 2 Bondeiger (Bet Now: $31.00). He had his chance in the Adelaide Cup two back before being freshened up and racing at Caulfield where he was held up in a somewhat forgive/forget run behind Steel Prince. Better suited on the bigger track, fitter, gets the claim for Ethan Brown…an improved showing wouldn’t shock.

There looks to be upside and timing about 14 Kings Full (Bet Now: $5.00) for Mick Price. Thought he was most disappointing two back over the mile at Ballarat but stepped up to 2000m at Cranbourne last time out and he absolutely bolted in, making a mess of them. Did he beat much? Probably not, but it was the manner in which he did it that was impressive. Back in trip and up in class the worry, but just has upside.

Not sure what to make of the Chris Waller trained 6 Mantastic (Bet Now: $5.00). Was really keen on him when he raced over the 1700m here on Anzac Day but the market didn’t like him late and it was spot on. He looked the winner when presented but last 75-100m, he couldn’t quite get there. Perhaps looking for more ground? Not sure, but at his best, clearly in the mix.

Up to 1700m will suit the Maher/Eustace trained 3 Pacodali (Bet Now: $6.00). Resumed over the mile at Caulfield where the market and the way he paraded suggesting he’ll take good improvement from the run and that’s how it panned out behind Mahamedeis. I think 2000m+ is when he’ll come into his own, but bigger track and a good second up record keeps him in the mix.

13 Nariko (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Mick Price trained mare resuming. This girl sort of came of age in the Spring, running a stack of good races, most notably last run when running a narrow second to Illustrious Lad in a Stakes race, and we know that horse has been Group l competitive. Trials/jumpouts have been good, draws the likely right part of the track and 1200m first up tells me she’s ready to go.

8 Spirit Of Aquada (Bet Now: $3.00) for me. Gareth Andrews has this gelding absolutely flying IMO. Still not sure how he didn’t win down the straight here two back when pipped by Villa Sarchi. Then went to Caulfield when wide no cover throughout yet still surged, only to be beaten by Bandipur, who had the suck run behind the speed and had last look. That horse won last week, so form has been franked, and this looks somewhat a drop in depth.

Paul Preusker looks to have 12 Indian Thunder (Bet Now: $11.00) going great guns at the moment. Just found Mandela Effect too good at Bendigo before racing on Terang Cup Day where he had the suck run in behind the speed before getting clear and finishing best to win. Looks like he saves his best for 1200m and stable doesn’t bring them to town unless they’re ready to win, and I think he can win this.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Steel Prince

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 13 Phoneme

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 6 Zuoy’s Comet

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 11, 13

Leg Two: 3

Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 14

Leg Four: 2, 6, 8, 12, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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