One of the premier race days in New Zealand is New Zealand Derby Day at Ellerslie and the 2017 edition rolls around this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (10:34) : The New Zealand Herald 1200 (75) 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Hollywood Lass (Best Odds: $3.00) was first up when racing over 1200m here a fortnight back where she sat near the speed and looked to travel well outside the speed and kicked strongly when asked for the effort by Innes but was caught late. Looks well placed here second up. Keen on her prospects.
Big Danger: 3 All Torn Up (Best Odds: $8.50) hasn’t raced since January 14 when racing here and sitting off the pace before coming home well with purpose to run a close up second to Julius. Break between runs should be no harm and he does tend to race quite well fresh. Major contender here for sure.
Long Shot: 1 Dancing Flames (Best Odds: $26.00) was having his first run in New Zealand since arriving from Hong Kong when racing over 1100m at Pukekura where he sat on speed and tried hard but just felt the pinch late. With the run under the belt, he will be much better off here and is a definite knockout hope.
Race Two (11:09) : Hilton 1600 1600m:
Back Me: I’m keen on 4 Sacred Way (Best Odds: $2.70) to turn the tables on Tavidream. Ran over 1500m here last time out and Sacred Way was enormous in defeat. He just got too far back in the run and to get as close as he did speaks volumes of the upside and promise this horse has. Confident he can turn the tables.
Big Danger: 2 Tavidream (Best Odds: $3.00) is a promising galloper for Donna Logan who is building a nice record and did win that race mentioned above last time out. Given a peach of a ride near the speed and when he pounced, he skipped clear and pinched a winning break. Not sure he can hold out Sacred Way, but has to be respected.
Long Shot: 10 Needlepoint (Best Odds: $6.00) comes through a similar race at Pukekura last time out where she sat off the pace and tried hard down the straight but couldn’t quite get the job done and had to settle for second to Neeson. I think she will like the rise to 1600m and is in the right stable.
Race Three (11:44) : Gartshore Retail Interiors 1400 (65) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Fast And Furious (Best Odds: $3.40) is an above average galloper for Tony Pike who has created a decent impression in a short space of time. Three career outings to date, the latest over 1200m here a fortnight back when sitting back and finishing off strongly. Only has to repeat that effort here to go close.
Big Danger: 1 Terrifique (Best Odds: $4.00) ran over 1400m at Te Rapa three weeks back where he sat off the speed and came with a well timed run to just miss out on the money. Should sit closer from the good draw and rates as one of the hardest to beat.
Long Shot: 5 Masu (Best Odds: $9.00) is the interesting runner here. Stephen Marsh trained galloper that hasn’t raced since New Years Day here over 2200m where he really struggled and was looking for the paddock. Back to 1400m is the issue, but he’s in the right stable. Might pay to watch the market.
Race Four (12:19) : Colgate Optic White 1400 (85) 1400m:
Back Me: 6 Hiflyer (Best Odds: $3.30) looks one of the hardest to beat here off the back of a brilliant win over the Tauranga mile last time out where he was eased back to last in the run before presenting wide on the turn and then once clicked up, he surged late and went right on with the job. Gets the claim again and back to 1400m is no query for mine.
Big Danger: 7 Royal Success (Best Odds: $4.40) is a talented galloper that resumes for Te Akau racing. Hasn’t raced since early December when chasing a hot speed and lifting late to win under the urgings of Matty Cameron. Looked okay in a recent trial and though drawn awkwardly, he has enormous scope and rates highly.
Long Shot: 11 Princess Belle (Best Odds: $26.00) is a visitor for Lisa Latta who attempted to lead in a similar race over 1400m at Te Rapa and she ran along at a decent clip, and gave a good kick but just felt the pinch over the final 200m. If she gets a soft trip near the tempo, she will be a threat for sure.
Race Five (12:55) : Buffalo & Co Nathans Memorial 2200m:
Back Me: 4 Savaria (Best Odds: $10.00) is a high class mare for that tunes up for the Auckland Cup with a run here. Hasn’t raced since the Wellington Cup where she came with a ripping finishing burst out wide to grab victory in the last couple of strides. 2200m is short of her best but she will be strong late.
Big Danger: 14 Zacada (Best Odds: $6.50) let punters down last time out at Te Rapa where he had a great spot off the pace and loomed to win the race but couldn’t quite get past the leader, and keep in mind there was bias towards those leading/near the rail. Rises in depth here, but I think he can measure up.
Long Shot: 7 King Kamada (Best Odds: $34.00) could be the big impover here at a price. He comes through the Avondale Cup where he really struggled on the soft/heavy track. I think if we get a firmer surface here, he has shown previously he can measure up in this for sure. Weather will be the key.
Race Six (13:31) : McKee Family Sunline Vase 2100m:
Back Me: 1 Eleonora (Best Odds: $2.00) is a high class filly for the Baker/Forsman that was far from disgraced during the Melbourne Spring. Resumed in the ATC Trophy here a fortnight back and closed off with real purpose to run second. She will love the rise in trip, has the class factor and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 5 Veearma (Best Odds: $7.50) took on the older horses at this track/distance on February 8 and it’s never easy for a three year old, especially a filly, to beat the older horses, but she did it and did it quite comfortably to my eye. She does have the hard run under the belt and I wouldn’t be shocked if she got the job done.
Long Shot: 7 Hot Saki (Best Odds: $51.00) rises significantly in grade, but I think she could be one to watch at odds with one eye on the New Zealand Oaks. She ran in a 1600m Te Aroha maiden last time out and gee she was impressive, winning by two lengths and running decent time. Form out of that race has been okay, and she gives the impression she’ll eat the 2100m.
Race Seven (14:06) : Mongolian Khan Trophy 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Ferrando (Best Odds: $3.00) is a smart colt for Team Rogerson who comes here off a freshen up. Hasn’t raced since January 21 at Trentham where he sat near the speed over 1200m and tougher it out strongly to get the job done. No trials, so fitness levels are unknown but he has a touch of class.
Big Danger: 5 Honey Rider (Best Odds: $9.00) has had two runs back from a spell for the Baker/Forsman team, both at Te Rapa. Bolted in first up, then ran sixth next time out where he perhaps raced a touch flat to my eye. Looks ideally placed for the third up bounce back.
Long Shot: 3 Kingsman (Best Odds: $11.00) hasn’t raced for a month since racing at Pukekohe where he sat off the pace, he tried hard but was no match for the above average Sacred Way, who ran well here next start and looks set to win on this program. He should take some beating with that form next to his name.
Race Eight (14:41) : Darley Plate 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Saracino (Best Odds: $3.90) just picks himself here I think. He attempted to lead all the way in the NRM Sprint at Te Rapa last time out where he gave a really good kick but couldn’t quite hold out Start Wondering. That form was franked at Otaki last weekend, and back to 1200m should really suit this star.
Big Danger: 2 Natuzzi (Best Odds: $5.50) is a grand veteran who will pose a threat for sure. He also comes through the NRM Sprint where he got back in the run and came with a brilliant finishing burst but just didn’t quite run the 1400m out. Back to 1200m is a big tick and if he gets a hot speed in front of him, look out.
Long Shot: 11 Snowdrop (Best Odds: $7.50) is a talented mare who has been freshened up since racing in the Railway here where she sat off a hot tempo and just faded out of it late. She’s very good when she is right, and she is lethal when she is produced on the fresh side.
Race Nine (15:21) : Vodafone New Zealand Derby 2400m:
Back Me: The weather will be the key to 1 Sacred Elixir (Best Odds: $7.00) and his chances. If the track is good, he just wins. But if the rain comes, he is a risk. But I am going to take the gamble with him because he is just simply the best horse in the race. Pace was too slow for him fresh here behind Volpe Veloce on Karaka Million Day before going to the Avondale Guineas here where he really struggled on the soft/heavy track. 2400m is perfect for him, speed will be hot, and if he brings his best, he will simply be too good.
Big Danger: Terrified of 2 Savile Row (Best Odds: $3.80). High class colt for Michael Moroney who has Group l WFA form next to his name. He ran in the Herbue Dyke last time out at Te Rapa where he had a nice sit just off the speed and presented at the right time but was no match late for Volkstok’n’barrell. 2400m is a different pain barrier, but he has the form on the board as well as brilliance.
Long Shot: I think $26+ on offer for 8 Rising Red (Best Odds: $21.00) is crazy. Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young are heading back over to NZ with this youngster who has been performing quite well. Just failed to beat Farson two back at the Valley, and that horse has franked the form since at Caulfield. Rising Red then went to the midweeks at Sandown where he took on the older horses and was strong through the line. He has the hard 2100m run under the belt, hard fit, and stable don’t travel unless they expect success.
Race Ten (16:01) : Barfoot & Thomson 2100 (65) 2100m:
Back Me: 4 Sheridan (Best Odds: $4.00) looks a leading contender here for the in form Tony Pike yard who comes to this race off the back of a strong effort over 2100m here a tick over three weeks back where he got a long way back in the run, giving away a huge start but finished off hard to just miss. If he can sit closer in the run, he will take some beating.
Big Danger: 13 Sprocket (Best Odds: $18.00) is the one with upside here and is in the right stable. Comes here off the back of an Avondale maiden win last start where she was ridden beautifully by Cameron and finished best. Genuine pace here will suit her and she has upside.
Long Shot: 3 Razors Edge (Best Odds: $13.00) ran over 2100m at Te Rapa three weeks back where he sat on speed and looked to travel well throughout. Took the lead soon after straightening and kicked hard but was nabbed right on the peg by Mongolian Legend. If he gets a soft trip near the speed again, he will go close once again.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Saracino
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 1 Sacred Elixir
VALUE: Race Five Number 4 Savaria
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 11
Leg Two: 4
Leg Three: 1, 2
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 12, 13
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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