A bumper card of racing has been assembled for Flemington this Saturday, where the feature race is the Group l Australian Guineas (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:45) : Mrs Macs Family Bakery Sprint 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Catch A Fire (Best Odds: $4.80) is a talented mare that resumes for the all conquering Hayes/Dabernig team. She resumed in the Magic Millions race for the mares at the Gold Coast where she got a long way back in the run and closed off her race quite strongly late behind Private Secretary. That form has held up well, and she returns back home and finds a very winnable race here.
Big Danger: 3 Sword Of Light (Best Odds: $3.60) is another talented three year old filly that is first up here, this one for the Ellerton/Zahra camp. This girl ran some really good races at a high level, including behind Global Glamour in the Thousand Guineas. Recent jump outs have been quite encouraging and she does have a tidy first up record.
Long Shot: 8 Savaju (Best Odds: $7.00) didn’t appear to beat much when resuming on her home track at Bendigo, but you had to be impressed by her turn of foot and the margin she put on them on the line, and clocked some of the fastest splits of the meeting. She was tested in the Spring on Oaks Day and made ground behind Spright. That reads very well for this.
Race Two (13:20) : ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 5 Lady Esprit (Best Odds: $6.50) looks the leading threat. Luckless two back at Stakes level at Caulfield before racing over the short course at the Valley where she seemingly had her chance but couldn’t quite reel in Squeaky Squirrel. Has run well down the straight previously and is hard fit.
Big Danger: 3 Husson Eagle (Best Odds: $6.00) is a talented sprinter that resumes for the Patrick Payne yard. He ran three times during the Summer and was a bit of a disappointment on each occasion, the latest when attempting to defend his Magic Millions Sprint crown and worked home okay when sixth to Target In Sight. Likes racing down the straight and has a good fresh record.
Long Shot: 1 Charmed Harmony (Best Odds: $18.00) is a talented galloper that resumes for the John Sadler yard. Hasn’t raced since the Memsie where he sat on a brutal speed and weakened out of it behind Black Heart Bart. Jump outs have been quite encouraging, he goes well fresh and Williams booked is a good lead.
Race Three (13:55) : 3AW IS Football Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Madeenaty (Best Odds: $1.85) looks the good thing of good things here. High class filly for the Hayes/Dabernig that kicks off her Slipper prep here. Hasn’t raced since the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast where she chased a hot speed and fought on strongly behind Houtzen. Back to 1000m down the straight is ideal and she isn’t facing much. Should take care of this lot.
Big Danger: 4 Seized (Best Odds: $6.50) was a drifter in the market when debuting at Moonee Valley but he showed really good toe to lead and lead comfortably. Kicked on the turn and looked the winner but was bloused late by a potential Stakes horse in Muraaqeb. Draws to lead them up here, out of trouble and Williams takes over.
Long Shot: 3 Sam’s Image (Best Odds: $12.00) rises a fair bit in depth/grade, but there was plenty to like about his debut win over 1100m at Benalla I thought given he did all the work on the speed, and copped pressure, then had to fend off a handy type. I think back to 1000m will suit his racing pattern and stable should always be respected when they come to town.
Race Four (14:30) : Mittys Handicap (84) 1600m:
Back Me: 8 Portman (Best Odds: $2.25) just picks himself here I think. I was one of many who was quite keen on his prospects when racing over this track/distance four weeks back where he was ridden an absolute treat by Ben Allen and really, after 400m, you knew he was home. Plenty to like about this galloper and he looks the clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: 4 Liapari (Best Odds: $5.00) is an unknown first crack racing anti-clockwise under Waller but has to be included given the vein of form he is in at the moment. He has won his past two starts, both over the Randwick mile and both times ridden a treat by Avdulla. Given his racing pattern, I think the track and pattern of the race should suit and he is rock hard fit and in form.
Long Shot: 5 Show A Star (Best Odds: $8.50) comes through the Duke Of Brunswick race at Caulfield on February 4 where he was completely luckless in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer and pretty much went around as if he was in a barrier trial. Convinced he has come back well and I am giving him serious respect here with the bigger track and up to the mile.
Race Five (15:10) : Frances Tressady Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Diamond Baroness (Best Odds: $5.00) is the main danger. She is hard fit and ready to go off the back of a couple of strong efforts at this track/distance in recent times, the latest resulting in a narrow second to Ample On Offa, who had the weight pull. Looks to get the lead here, and comfortably. Will be in it for a long way.
Big Danger: Really interested to see how 9 Happy Hannah (Best Odds: $5.00) goes here. She ran some cracking races during the Spring, but just couldn’t win. But admittedly, she should have won during Cup Week but just got too far back in the run. Thought she trialled well recently at Randwick and she can sprint well fresh so look for her to attack the line. I will say though that $4 is poison odds. She will start much better than that.
Long Shot: 2 I Love It (Best Odds: $8.50) is a ripping mare for the Salanitri team who rarely runs a bad race. She is back from her Tassie raid where she tried to get some more blacktype but just couldn’t quite get the job done. 1400m here looks ideal, hard fit and she maps really here outside Diamond Baroness. Happy to be in her corner.
Race Six (15:50) : TAB Rewards Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 6 Zebrinz (Best Odds: $5.00) can be a tough nut to follow but I thought there was a touch of dominance about his win at this track/distance a fortnight back, ridden a treat by Lane, who had the horse parked off a genuine speed before peeling wide and allowing the horse to go through his gears, then when he picked up, gee he was strong late. Confident he can measure up here.
Big Danger: 1 Kenjorwood (Best Odds: $7.50) is an absolute ripper for the Weir camp. He was a real star during the latter part of the Spring and Summer. The highlight came at the end when toughing it out strongly on speed to win the Lord Stakes. Great record at Flemington and can sprint well fresh, plus he has class.
Long Shot: 3 Hooked (Best Odds: $7.50) is the big watch here. Talented entire that resumes for Robert Smerdon after formerly being with John Thompson. High class animal when he is right and his efforts in jump outs and a recent Cranbourne trial indicates he looks set to fire this prep, and indeed fresh. Respect any market moves.
Race Seven (16:30) : Australian Guineas 1600m:
Back Me: The horse that could turn the tables on Hey Doc here is 11 Inside Agent (Best Odds: $21.00). I have alot of time for this galloper but he just continues to do so much wrong in his races, and that was clearly evident here in the CS Hayes where he was all over the shop, but once he balanced up, he really attacked the line. He will be better suited outside horses and in the clear, so if that can eventuate here, gee I think he’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: 4 Hey Doc (Best Odds: $3.50) is the obvious form wise, but betting wise, he looks poison odds. Given a beaut ride from Currie to win the CS Hayes (1400m), stalking the speed before peeling out and the horse just cruised past his rivals. He has to tick the 1600m box against the top shelf horses, and twice he has failed. But I think he is the one to beat from the CS form perspective.
Long Shot: The market said that 1 Prized Icon (Best Odds: $10.00) would run a howler fresh in the Hobartville (1400m) but I thought given the circumstances, his effort wasn’t too bad in defeat. He got back in a slowly run race and had a fair bit to do, but he stuck on well and was good through the line. He is a horse who will appreciate the extra trip and he is a Group l winner at the track.
Race Eight (17:10) : 3AW Roy Higgins Quality 2600m:
Back Me: All you can do is win and that is what 3 Northwest Passage (Best Odds: $3.60) has been doing against the older horses, something that we don’t often see at this level but that is what happened in the Torney Cup at the Valley where he led all the way under Katelyn Mallyon and despite being headed, he fought them off strongly and kicked on for the win. Gets to control things in front here, and this track/distance does tend to suit those nearer the tempo.
Big Danger: 9 Annus Mirabilis (Best Odds: $6.50) bolted up in the Bagot here on New Years Day before being freshened up with an eye towards the Adelaide Cup. He resumed over 2000m here a fortnight back where he was off the bit before the turn but really finished off nicely late when a narrow third to Post D’France. Should love the rise in trip and rates highly.
Long Shot: 6 Like A Carousel (Best Odds: $28.00) is my early tip for the Adelaide Cup. He is absolutely flying this horse and is going much better than what the form guide reads. Closed off strongly behind Second Bullet at Caulfield before backing up seven days later and finishing close up behind Post D’France in a slowly run affair. He will eat up the trip, and with a genuine tempo in front, he will get every chance.
Race Nine (17:45) : Saintly Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 12 Tribal Wisdom (Best Odds: $10.00) was backed as if he was Black Caviar when debuting at Sale and while he didn’t win like the great mare, he was still very impressive in leading all the way, bolting in and running decent time for the meeting. Trained on the track here, up to 1400m suits and I think he will be even better with a bunny to chase.
Big Danger: 3 Theanswermyfriend (Best Odds: $2.70) had really confident market support when racing over 1400m at Sandown a tick over two weeks back and he was given a sweet on speed steer from Beau Mertens, and the horse just ran his rivals into the ground. He’ll be much better when ridden with a sit and launching late. This looks ideal and I can certainly entertain him each way.
Long Shot: The drop in depth should really suit 1 Wazzenme (Best Odds: $23.00). He has taken on the best of the best in the three year old category throughout the season and has run quite well but just hasn’t quite measured up to the top level. This looks a lovely drop down, and he draws to get good cover and ambush. Major threat.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 6 Zebrinz
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Madeenaty
VALUE: Race Seven Number 11 Inside Agent
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 9, 11, 14
Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 9
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 12
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