5/10/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Turnbull Stakes day

Group l racing returns to Flemington this Saturday with star mare Mystic Journey looking to stamp her Cox Plate credentials when she lines up in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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In the corner of 1 Boom Daddy (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS), who is a Spirit Of Boom colt for the Hayes/Dabernig team. This guy has had two jumpouts here in readiness for the debut and in terms of the unraced, I think he’s the pick of them. Like what I have seen from him. Looks to have a good action, puts himself on speed and appears to do everything right, so he’ll do me here.

6 Divine Caprice (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) has the run under the belt, having debuted here last Wednesday over 900m and I think you could easily make a case that he should have won. Just didn’t get clear air at the right time and when he did get clear, he charged to the line and just missed, so up to 1000m will suit and the big tick is that he does have race experience on his side.

3 Jerle (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is an Exceed And Excel colt for James Cummings. He is out of an Octagonal mare, so perhaps will need more time, and his recent jumpout down the straight suggests he’s one for later on in the season perhaps, but we know the record the stable had with their juveniles last year and dismissing them can be fraught with danger, especially in a small field.

7 Music Bay (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) looks hard to beat here. Talented mare for Phillip Stokes who I was keen on when she resumed at Caulfield but unfortunately she just had to do a bit too much work in the run early on and that left her without petrol tickets late behind My Pendant, who was good last time out in the Let’s Elope. Fitter and with better luck, she’ll take some beating.

Having something each way on 3 Violate (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS), who resumes for Brent Stanley. This bloke tends to save his best when resumed, winning his last two fresh runs over the 1400m at Flemington, and a few preps prior, he resumed over 1200m at Caulfield and was one of the runs of the day behind Mr Sneaky. Has looked good in a couple of Bendigo jumpouts so he is respected for mine.

6 Romancer (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) has been up forever it seems but gee Grahame Begg has this OTI gelding in career best form. Lovely ride from Lachie King saw him win two back at the Valley before stepping back in trip to the 1400m at Flemington where he was good in defeat behind Rox The Castle. Not sure what upside he has left, but while he’s in this vein of form, he has to be included.

1 Sebrakate (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) has been pretty good in recent times for the Hayes/Dabernig team and appears beautifully placed here. He comes through the Danehill where he continued his good record down the Flemington straight when a close up fourth to a potential star in Dalasan. Looks really well placed back to this sort of level and is one of the hardest to beat.

10 Wayupinthesky (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) looks to be heading in the right direction for Team Snowden. Showed some ticker to win first up over 900m at Newcastle before coming to this track/distance where she was well supported and under a lovely ride from Lane, she had clear air throughout and showed nice change up speed to get the job done. Has to be respected once again.

Giving 9 Pin Sec (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) another chance. Was keen on her running well in the Atlantic Jewel a few weeks ago at the Valley but nothing went right for her. Had the ideal sit behind the leader but once it stopped, it dragged Pin Sec with it and she lost all momentum and any chance of figuring in the finish in what was a total forgive. Run prior at Caulfield was a beauty so giving her another chance and recent jumpout was nice work.

She’s been a tease when at this level, but convinced that 5 Pohutukawa (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is a Group l horse and I think she’ll run a beauty here. I was really keen on her winning the Tibbie first up at Newcastle but she paraded like she would need the run and that’s how it panned out. She loomed to win but just ran out of condition the last 100m. She gets decent relative weight relief and should get a lovely run from the gate.

8 Fidelia (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) is flying for Robbie Griffiths. Lovely return in the Cockram behind Pippie before going to the Let’s Elope where she was back and held up at a vital stage and I think with clear air earlier on, she would have gone close to winning when third to Spanish Whisper. The query is that she may want 1600m, but she’s hard to beat regardless because she’s going so well.

Interested to see what 1 Aristia (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) can do up in trip. She rightfully started bolters odds in the How Now given she was a stayer, first up off the back of what was a pretty poor Autumn campaign, but I thought her effort in defeat behind Manicure was a big pass mark. Is she back on track? She was excellent at this track/distance in the Autumn, so keen to see how she goes.

11 Olympic Oath (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Lindsey Smith trained three year old heading towards the Derby. Was okay two back at the Valley behind Power Scheme before going to the Derby Trial last Wednesday at Flemington and I thought he was quite good late without much room when fifth to Adelaide Ace. Draws out, so will get clear air and be strong late here.

5 Adelaide Ace (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Lindsey Smith trained three year old who secured his start in the Derby when winning the Derby Trial last Wednesday, doing work in the run and was there to be run down, but he showed good ticker when challenged and fought on really strongly to get the win. Harder here, and again drawn tricky, but he looks very promising.

Want to give 9 Long Jack (Bet Now: $9.00) another chance. Got the maiden win out of the way first up on the Ballarat Synthetic before racing over the mile at Caulfield last time where he was back and forced wide in a race dominated by those nearer the speed/rail. Putting that down to second up syndrome and anticipating a third up bounce back on the bigger track up in trip.

Giving 12 Bella Martini (Bet Now: $23.00) another chance. Was keen on this Team Hawkes trained mare first up in the How Now but just lacked the zip in the legs to go with them but the effort in defeat when fourth to Manicure was more than sound. Big ticks are fitter, home track, stack of upside, and her form from prior preps does read very well. Happy to be in her corner again.

7 Sunlight (Bet Now: $2.70) is back on track. She pulled up lame first up in the Shorts behind Pierata, so a clear forgive there. She then went to the Moir last Friday night where she finished off her race with real purpose late to run third to Nature Strip. She’s back on track for sure and this should clean out the cobwebs for the Everest and Golden Eagle. Hard to beat.

5 Tyzone (Bet Now: $13.00) shouldn’t be underestimated. The Queenslanders got the win with Alligator Blood on Sunday and the Edmonds camp have this bloke resuming, who was excellent during the Autumn and Winter, highlighted by his last run when second to Trekking in the Stradbroke. Gold Coast trial win was very good and he’s a bomb when produced fresh.

6 Finche (Bet Now: $7.50) looks one of the leading local chances for the Melbourne Cup and as such, is one of the hardest to beat here. This bloke was ridden near a moderate speed in the Kingston Town, sitting off Stampede, before getting clear air in the straight and his class came to the fore when it counted and he was much too classy for his rivals. Can only see him better with the run under the belt and he’ll do me.

Contender or pretender time for 4 Mystic Journey (Bet Now: $3.00). She’s a star, no question about that. But can she stretch her brilliance to 2000m? Yes, she had the break leading into the Makybe Diva, and while she saw off the rest comfortably, she couldn’t get past the bolter Gatting, which is a concern for me as she heads to 2000m where she is an unknown compared to others who will love it.

8 Kings Will Dream (Bet Now: $11.00) is just about ready to something positive. Thought he was good fresh in the Winx Stakes before going to the Makybe Diva where he had the suck run behind the speed but at the mile, he just didn’t have the zip in the legs, but the effort was sound enough. He’s getting close to peak fitness now and up to 2000m, I think he’ll be really dangerous.

Forgive a good horse for one poor run, which is what I’ll do with 11 Supernova (Bet Now: $10.00). I was all over him in the Kingston Town and most agreed, because he was well supported, but I think just forget he went around due to the tempo and it suiting those near the front, where he was out the back and spotted them too much start. Fitter, out to a more ideal trip and tumbles down to the minimum. He’ll run a beauty I think and you’ll get good odds.

3 Surprise Baby (Bet Now: $2.30) won’t look out of place in a Melbourne Cup. Just a matter of getting there and getting into the final 24. Can get into that final 24 that with a win here and he can easily win because his first up run in the Feehan was outstanding, confirming what was seen at the jumpouts that he’s flying. Fitter and up to an idea trip, he’s hard to beat.

I keep reading that 12 Te Akau Caliburn (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Sydney Cup/Melbourne Cup horse for next year…why can’t he be a Melbourne Cup horse this year? I thought his Australian debut behind Alfarris was excellent in a race where those behind really had little to no hope. Thought his effort to get as close as he did was very good. Hopefully a more genuine tempo this time around.

I think 11 Subpoenaed (Bet Now: $4.00) is just about the best on the program. Still very raw and new to the caper, but clearly above average. She contested the Tea Rose last time out where she was wide throughout and pulling off a moderate speed, so her chances were done there but she was far from disgraced. Drops a fair bit in depth IMO and if she relaxes, I think brilliance will see her win.

9 Really Discreet (Bet Now: $26.00) looks suited up to the mile. This girl found the 1200m too sharp fresh at the Valley behind Sassy Salitage before stepping up to 1400m here where she was good in defeat behind Legionnaire. Did show decent promise when stepping out in trip last time in so the 1600m should suit this girl and she has plenty of room for improvement condition and coat wise.

8 Leven Lass (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Busuttin/Young trained filly that had the blinkers applied at Caulfield over the mile last start and that gear change had a positive effect as she relaxed well enough in the run and found the lien nicely behind Skiddaw, running third. Back to her own sex and third up on the bigger track, she looks a serious hope and stable is flying at the moment.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 11 Subpoenaed

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 6 Finche

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 12 Bella Martini

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 5, 7, 12

Leg Two: 4, 6

Leg Three: 3, 7, 9, 11, 12

Leg Four: 11

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