5/12/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill

Rosehill will play host to a nine race meeting on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

7 Zoumist (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a progressive filly for the Ryan/Alexiou team that was a hard favourite when resuming over 1200m at Gosford where Avdulla landed her in a plum spot just behind the speed and once she got the split in the straight, she finished over the top. The knock is the time was plain relative to the day, but the tick is there has been a couple of subsequent winners to come out of it. Fitter, upside, home track advantage, hard to beat.

1 Smart Image (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) looks a candidate for the Magic Millions Guineas so keen to see how he resumes for Team Snowden. Showed good promise in his first prep, winning the opening two runs before bumping into North Pacific and was spelled soon after. Thought his recent Randwick trial win was outstanding and looks ready to rock and roll.

Good test here for 8 Little Krakatoa (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) but he has earned a crack in town. Showed good ticker to win first up on Queanbeyan Cup Day. He was there to be run down late but found plenty under pressure late to kick on and record a strong win. Got upside to come, will put himself near the front and try his heart out.

7 Toscanini (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is racing so well at the moment for the Maher/Eustace camp and the rise to 1500m should be ideal. Impressive win first up at Newcastle then backed it up with a strong effort over 1300m at Hawkesbury. Stakes placed as a juvenile over the mile so 1500m should be fine and has more upside than most, plus maps super.

8 Ellsberg (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) is a fascinating runner here. What upside he has left I do not know, and are the stable going to the well one too many times? This is his first prep and the Spring Stakes run was a proper gut buster given he was punching up to hold a forward spot and considering the other on pace runners tailed off, the fact he ran third was amazing. If that hasn’t busted him, he’s very hard to beat, but market will be the guide.

Fitter and up to 1500m I do like for the Chris Waller trained 3 Papal Warrior (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS). Resumed over 1300m here on the Friday twilight meeting where he had a suck run behind the speed and tried hard, but couldn’t quicken sharply enough when a close up fourth to Snowfire. Like him up to 1500m and has more upside than most.

Ed O’Rourke has done a good job this time in with 5 Rumberella (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) and I think this gelding can measure up in what looks a relatively thin Highway. He has won his past two, both coming over 1700m at Grafton. What’s been interesting in both of those wins is that each time, he has been a significant drifter in betting, so watch the market with him and see what it does.

6 Eva’s Deel (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) looks hard to beat for Kody Nestor. This mare has run in a couple of Highways at her past two and has been good each time. Far from disgraced behind Proven Class two back before coming back to the mile behind She’s All In and she just had no luck at all in what was a tough watch if you were on. Going well and is hard to beat.

2 Cryptic Jewel (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS)…if she was able to show any kind of early toe, she would be a big chance here and likely a single figure chance in betting. Her run in the Kembla Highway mentioned above was really good from the back. Off that, she will love the rise to 1800m…just needs to produce better early gate speed.

6 Atlantic King (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) looks suited up to 1800m for Matt Dunn. Was 1600m back to 1500m when racing at Kembla where he was just run off his legs and was never a winning factor, but liked the way he finished his race off very late in the piece behind Bigboyroy. Gets back up in trip now…if the track had give in it, would nearly declare him. Hard to beat regardless.

2 Wairere Falls (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is racing as if 1800m will be okay for him. Chris Waller trained son of Sacred Falls that ran over 1500m at Kembla two weeks ago where he was the best of those out the back. He never threatened as the winner but closed off well, suggesting a rise in trip will be ideal and stable is in a purple patch.

12 Dhakuri (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) looks a sneaky Derby contender. Godolphin 3YO that was a most impressive winner at this track/distance last time out and the punters knew, backing him into favourite and under Nash he drove hard late to get up and win. He has got plenty of upside and progression to come and rates highly against these.

The map looks ideal, he’s right down in the weights…I think 10 Bigboyroy (Bet Now: $3.80) can win again. Admittedly, wasn’t a strong he won at Kembla two weeks ago, but loved the way he toughed it out to fend off a filly with good ability I feel in Air To Air. Gets down to 53kg and if he comes out of the barriers cleanly, he should get the perfect sit behind likely leader Edison and prove hard to hold out.

5 Edison (Bet Now: $3.40) is three weeks between runs for the Bjorn Baker team since racing at Newcastle on Hunter Day when leading and giving a very good kick when second to Through The Cracks, who was far from disgraced last Saturday in the Festival Stakes. Third up now, hard fit and with the right racing pattern, he’s hard to beat.

6 Asharani (Bet Now: $9.00) is a big improver here for Kris Lees. Was a real eye catcher first up behind Athiri at Randwick. She then had several weeks off and ran on Hunter Day at Newcastle where she was run off her legs but at the same time, thought she was slightly disappointing. She’s better than that and should just about be at peak fitness now.

The set up is here for 13 Significance (Bet Now: $6.00) to bounce back into winning form. The set up he likes is leading, having control and doing it on firm ground. The two times he has done that, he won his maiden by 7.6L and he won two back at Hawkesbury by 7.3L. Good in defeat last time behind Accountability at Kembla two weeks ago. Hope he can find the front, get control and prove too good.

7 Accountability (Bet Now: $2.80) is a nice up and coming horse for Chris Waller. Surprised many with his win first up here at big odds, but proved it was no fluke at Kembla, albeit he won the race via the Stewards room. Got more to come you would think and potentially might be a horse to follow in these upcoming Summer staying features over the Christmas/New Year period.

5 Vegas Jewel (Bet Now: $7.50) is racing well for Chris Waller. Just can’t get a win on the board. Ran over the mile at Kembla last time out and closed off well, but thought she had her chance when a close up fourth to Matowi. The 88 back to 78 recipe is usually one that should be followed. She’s honest, runs well…just couldn’t back her to win, but she goes in trifectas and first fours.

They have worked out 13 Hulk (Bet Now: $4.80). Keep him to fast run sprint races where he can finish over the top. It was a perfect set up for him at Kembla, helped by a sweet steer from Tommy, and the gelding was much too good for his rivals. Saw last Saturday that you can make ground from off the pace at Rosehill, even at the 1100m start. Happy to be with him again.

11 Broken Arrows (Bet Now: $14.00) can run an improved race here at odds. Resumed at Kembla two weeks ago over 1000m where he just got a bit too far back in the run but liked the way he finished off behind Hulk, beaten 3.6L. Has a good second up record and did trial well prior, so happy to give him another chance.

I’m wary of 4 Single Bullet (Bet Now: $15.00), who resumes for Gary Portelli. Talented gelding when right and is certainly capable of measuring up to these kind of gallopers. Wet tracks somewhat plagued his prep during the Winter but loved the recent trial when leading throughout, and with Cejay Graham, her 3kg claim, suspect it will be jump and run tactics, especially at the 1100m start.

3 Sausedge (Bet Now: $7.50) is a tricky mare to follow but she has got a decent engine under the hood and want to give her another look in town. She hasn’t really measured up in town previously but reckon she has returned in really good order. Good late splits fresh on the Kenso track before going to the Snake Gully Cup where she should have won. Just got too far back in the run. If the tempo is genuine, she can finish over the top.

11 Selica (Bet Now: $5.50) is a fascinating runner. Formerly with Phillip Stokes, she now finds herself with the in form Annabel Neasham stable. Any hint of what she produced when trained down south and she’d be winning this, plus the recent Wyong trial…well she couldn’t have done any more to impressive. Last 10-15 minutes of betting will be fascinating.

10 Miss Redoble (Bet Now: $15.00) looks really well suited back up in trip. Resumed without a trial over 1200m at Kembla where she got back in the run but peeled and presented to be some sort of winning threat. Reckon her condition just gave out late. She’ll take good improvement off that and is a proven Saturday class horse.

She’s yet to prove herself at this kind of level but I have loved the way that 10 Dunbrody Power (Bet Now: $4.20) has returned this time in. Resumed with an electric win on the Kenso track before going to Kembla where she was back and wide, yet made up ground and was good in defeat behind Turnstyle. Think that form reads well for this and she’s hard to beat.

11 Above And Beyond (Bet Now: $11.00) will love a fast run 1200m. Ran over 1300m here on the Friday twilight meeting when back off the speed before poking his way through between runners and burst through late to just miss out on the win in a three way photo, with Snowfire getting the verdict. Back to 1200m is fine given the hot tempo likely to occur, where he will be strong late.

3 Oxford Tycoon (Bet Now: $11.00) is back on top of the ground and can run a much improved race at odds. The worse the track got at Rosehill last time, the lower his winning claims and when Frosty Rocks got complete control, it was race over for those behind, especially this guy. Gets back on top of the ground and his best is clearly good enough.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 6 Atlantic King

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 13 Significance

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 3 Sausedge

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 7, 13

Leg Two: 4, 8, 9, 11, 13

Leg Three: 3, 5, 10, 11

Leg Four: 3, 8, 10, 11

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful