5/3/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Bunbury Cup day

Ascot will play host to a big raceday for the Bunbury Turf Club this Saturday for Bunbury Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Bunbury Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Bunbury Cup

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5 Arcadia Grace (Bet Now: $3.50) is still learning her craft but ability wise, I think she has this lot covered. Got a fair way out of her ground at Belmont last time but really knuckled down late to surge hard and get the win in the last stride. I think she’d love a rise in trip, but ideally the inside gate can be used to advantage to somewhat offset that.

2 Red Fifty Three (Bet Now: $3.30) put his unbeaten record on the line when resuming in the Magic Millions 3YO Trophy at Pinjarra. He was on speed and doing plenty of work. That work just told on him late, tiring to run fourth. He’s had the extra time to recover from that gut buster and from the first prep, his form reads well.

1 Heavenly Waters (Bet Now: $12.00) does have the ability to measure up here, but IMO they have got the tactics wrong on her in recent times. They’ve tried to take a sit with her, but her best form has been when she’s allowed to roll on speed. Drawn wide with a claiming apprentice, hopefully it’s a positive ride, they go forward and she’ll give a sight.

Sustained speed from the front to the fore in the shape of 1 Spin The Knife (Bet Now: $1.90). The Pinjarra run two back confirmed that 1200m isn’t his go. He’s a short course horse, so last start was 1000m here, where he got control in front under a peach steer from Holly Watson and he was miles too classy. Taking on some big boys and girls here, but has the early speed to lead and go throughout.

6 Pink Carats (Bet Now: $3.50) is on the seven day back up after racing last Satruday here over 1000m. Got held up slightly and was a touch unlucky early, but overall, I thought he was held on the line by Miss Frost. How strong is that form? Not sure, but he’s a good horse in form.

2 Express Time (Bet Now: $9.50) is two weeks between runs for Neville Parnham since racing over 1000m here where she was chasing from the outset and tired late. She was ordinary but did pull up post race with a laceration, so there was an excuse, and the prior form was quite strong.

Chris Parnham doesn’t ride often for Jim Taylor, but when they combine, the results are positive, so with that, I like 7 Gold Merits (Bet Now: $4.40). Ran over 1400m here two weeks ago where she got a fair way back in the run but saved ground nearer the inside and charged to the line late, just missing out on picking up Spirited Session. Gets a jockey upgrade and although drawn awkwardly, he’s the one to beat.

8 Gallant Ranger (Bet Now: $4.80) has done little wrong in four runs this time in for Michael Lane. Won the first two runs for the prep before a close up third at Pinjarra. He then raced in the Spirited Session race mentioned above and worked home strongly to finish third. Has to be respected.

2 Surf Point (Bet Now: $26.00) might want one or two more, but I think for multiples, he can be included. Resumed in the Spirited Session race where he was last throughout and never really a factor, but I didn’t mind his finale in a solid piece of work. Doubt he wins, but can sneak a first four spot.

2 Crescent City (Bet Now: $6.00) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates, but gee he is knocking on the door. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he was given a sore back I thought from Stanley, sitting wide no cover for the trip. He had the hide to loom and look the winner, but was nabbed late by Downforce. Gets a lovely run from the draw. Just hopefully the run last time hasn’t busted her.

5 Trade War (Bet Now: $4.50) should be around the mark for Michael Lane. His last couple of runs have come over 1400m here, the latest being three weeks ago when a closing third to River Rubicon, who is a talented horse, so the form reads okay. Just not sure where he gets to in the run from the draw.

9 Benji’s (Bet Now: $18.00) is in with a shout. He ran in the Downforce race mentioned above where he got a mile back in the run but loved the way he found the line late when a closing third to the Neville Parnham galloper. Hopefully the gate is used to advantage and he’s bursting to win one.

7 Amelia’s Jewel (Bet Now: $2.50) is a Simon Miller trained filly on debut and I think she has above average ability. She’s had two trials to get ready for her first start, the latest being over 950m at Lark Hill when a dominant winner in solid time. Tricky draw to overcome, but have to respect the stable.

3 Costume Party (Bet Now: $3.90) is a daughter of A lot for Luke Fernie that resumes. She did a really good job in four runs during the Carnival period, winning on debut before placing in each of her following three runs. Resumes without a trial, but has a touch of class I feel.

2 Pot Shot (Bet Now: $7.00) is a daughter of Demerit that resumes. She had a three run Spring prep to start her career, winning on debut before placing behind Revitup, then was down the track behind Street Parade. Resumes without a trial, but I think with her racing pattern, she’ll run a cheeky race.

7 Real Danger (Bet Now: $4.00) deserves another chance. Ran over 1000m here two weeks ago when wide no cover, chasing a good speed, and tired late behind Spin The Knife. Has won up to 1100m so 1200m is a little query with her, but she maps to get a beaut run and the form around her is strong.

2 Spirited Session (Bet Now: $6.50) has put it together this time in for Justine Erkelens and is hard to beat. Ran over 1400m here a fortnight back where he got the suck run behind the speed before angling into clear air and he let down strongly late to win. Harder here, and back in trip, but he’s genuine.

10 Wednesday (Bet Now: $10.00) should be suited up to 1200m. Ran over 1100m two weeks back where she was back off a good speed and chasing from a fair way out, but didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind Via Monte. The rise to 1200m I like and is a knockout chance.

11 Resortman (Bet Now: $15.00) has found that winning feeling again and I think he can hold it. That win came three weeks ago at this track/distance when producing a strong finale from off the speed to win and win impressively. Now he’s won a race after teasing for so long, I think he can win again.

4 Coming Around (Bet Now: $12.00) has a fab third up record and maps to get a super run from the gate. Ran in the Pinjarra Classic last time out and seemed to have his chance and battled on pretty well in defeat behind Clairvoyance, who produced a Group l figure, so that form has to read well for this.

5 Carocapo (Bet Now: $21.00) is three weeks between runs for Jim Taylor since attempting to lead throughout in the Cyril Flower over 1200m here. He gave a pretty good kick from the front but just felt the pinch late when third to This’ll Testya. Like him up to 1400m, he’ll press forward and give a sight.

9 Come Right Back (Bet Now: $6.50) is a beauty for Adam Durrant that is looking to make it four on the bounce. Hasn’t raced for several weeks since a dominant win over 2000m at Belmont, lumping 60.5kg to make it three wins straight. Tick over trial was a good piece of work, he gets weight relief, in form and finds a winnable race I feel.

1 Platoon (Bet Now: $8.50) gets another chance for me. He was seven weeks between runs when racing in the Detonator two weeks ago where he was ridden very negatively, getting a mile out of his ground, and was never really a factor behind True Attraction. Fitter and up to a more suitable trip, with class, I’m leaning his way.

2 Neufbosc (Bet Now: $17.00) is getting to somewhere near his 2021 Perth Cup form I think. He ran in the Detonator two weeks back but I liked the way he finished his race off after getting a fair way back in the run. He’ll love the rise to 2100m and if he can sit closer in the run, he’ll be dangerous.

4 Phoneme (Bet Now: $3.30) is a ripper. Michael Lane trained gelding that produced an electric finale to win over 1400m at Belmont last time, charging clear to win and win impressively. He’ll need luck from the draw, but he’s in form and overall, I do think this is a very winnable race.

This is one of the easier races that 1 Serenity Bay (Bet Now: $5.50) has contested in some time. Just got too far back in the run last time in the Pinjarra Classic, and wasn’t helped that she pulled her head off in the run behind Clairvoyance. Good record at the track and with the claim, she gets in well.

5 Scooter’s Machine (Bet Now: $19.00) will put himself on speed and look to give his all. Few weeks between runs since racing at Pinjarra when near the speed throughout and tried hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Tradeem’ In. Lands near the front here and will give a sight.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Spin The Knife

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 4 Phoneme

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 11 Resortman

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 10

Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 7, 11

Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 9

Leg Four: 1, 4

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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