5/3/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Australian Guineas day

A strong nine race card has been set down for Flemington this Saturday for Australian Guineas Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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1 Mumbai Jewel (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) looks a progressive filly for Annabel Neasham that should prove hard to beat here. Bias was against her fresh in the Widden behind Queen Of The Ball. She then raced here in the Pierro Plate where she found the best ground but she did come from the tail and was impressive. Heading in the right direction and confident she goes close.

9 Bohemian Daisy (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is an Annabel Neasham trained filly that resumes. Debuted here during Cup Week and she ran a super race in defeat from off the speed behind See You In Heaven, finishing third. Her trials in Sydney have been quite strong and I think she has the talent to measure up here.

2 Superset (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is a Shea Eden trained juvenile that debuted last Friday night at The Valley. He didn’t seem to get around the corners all that well, but once he balanced up in the straight, gee I liked the way he finished his race off and knuckled down strongly to win. Keen to see how he goes.

4 Crystal Pegasus (Bet Now: $1.60 TOP ODDS) looks the most progressive of this lot. Chris Waller trained gelding that got the job done two back at Rosehill before racing over 2000m here when ridden a treat by J Mac, coming with a well timed run to nail them close to home. He’ll eat up more ground, got upside and a touch of class.

5 Tigertiger (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) should love the rise in trip as he potentially heads towards an Adelaide Cup. Was off a let up when racing behind Crystal Pegasus in the race mentioned above, and I thought his effort was a definite pass mark given 2000m is short of his best. More suitable distance now, fitter, he can be dangerous.

7 Salto Angel (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) has an awful winning strike rate, but as a whole, this is an awful race, so why can’t she win it? She’s a stayer that will have no issue with a testing 2600m and brings along with her some okay form from Melbourne, including last start in a fast run 2400m behind Miss Five Hundred.

8 Bons Abroad (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is the bet for me. Kevin Corstens trained mare that is an absolute swimmer so she gets conditions to suit. Resumed at Hobart in the Bow Mistress and was a real eye catcher from off the speed when a close up third to Zoushine. Lands in a plum spot from the draw and go back to her form from the Spring, Quantico, Kementari and co…gee it reads well.

9 Rose Quartz (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) is flying for Grahame Begg. Good in defeat two back at Caulfield in a high rating race won by Melba Storm. She then went to the straight course here where she got absolute control in front and the race was over 600m out. Harder here, but no reason why she can’t measure up.

I was keen on 2 Superium (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) but the wet track worries me. He’s flying for Team Hawkes but he hates getting his feet wet. He was outstanding in defeat in the Southern Cross behind a star, a proper Group l horse in Lost And Running. He’s bursting to win a race. Even with the weight, he commands respect.

I like 6 More Prophets (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) here. John Thompson trained mare that resumed in the Triscay at Randwick in what was essentially a barrier trial, but I did like the way she finished her race off behind Snapdancer in a very encouraging return. Fitter, up in trip, tempo should be more genuine and she’ll get her chance to finish over the top.

2 Electric Girl (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a handy mare for Team Hawkes that will land on speed and look to give her all. That is what she did first up at Randwick and she tried hard, but was simply no match for Snapdancer. She is a dead set dry tracker and hopefully she does get it here despite a bit of rain forecast.

9 Vespertine (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is unknown at the mile but the way she relaxes and can finish off, I think it will be fine. I want to be forgiving of her last start at Caulfield. She just lost sight of the bunny in an on pace dominated affair but rocketed late. If she’s within range 400m out, I think she goes close.

I like 11 Shadow Devil (Bet Now: $8.00). Mark Newnham trained colt that is 2/2, both wins coming at Wyong where he has savaged the line each time to get up and win. He looks to be a horse of real talent and his tick over trial at Randwick was a lovely piece of work. He’s here to rock and roll.

I do think 9 Able Willie (Bet Now: $5.50) will be suited to 1200m and the other big tick for him is getting onto a big track. Enormous in defeat first up at Canterbury before going to Rosehill where he was a touch disappointing, but I think second up off a big return, he was on the flat. Anticipating a hard third up bounce back.

13 Well In Sight (Bet Now: $27.00) looks to have her share of talent. Mitch Beer trained filly that is 3/3 to start her career, the latest win coming on Sunday at Albury where she was there to be run down but she kicked clear in the straight and was impressive again. Keen to see how she goes.

1 Zaaki (Bet Now: $2.15) is a high class animal and I think he can confirm himself as #1 seed for the All Star Mile with a win here fresh. It was a somewhat mixed Spring for him, albeit it resulted in a couple of Group l wins, he did get beat in the Might And Power and was scratched on race morning of the Cox Plate. But he’s one of the best we’ve got and his trials indicate he’s come back really well.

5 Mr Brightside (Bet Now: $5.00) looks to be spot on for this. Resumed two weeks ago here over 1400m in The Elms and was ridden like it was a barrier trial, sitting back, plenty of cover, and was exposed quite late but quite strong at the end behind Corner Pocket. That looks to be such a beautiful platform for this and then the All Star Mile.

10 Inspirational Girl (Bet Now: $3.80) is a quality mare for Danny O’Brien that resumes. This girl only had a one run Spring prep, which was an eye catching effort in the Memsie behind Behemoth. Looked a bit rusty in her Geelong trial, but I thought she ran a super race in defeat in the CF Orr. Fitter, up to the mile, is hard to beat.

He really could be anything 3 Profondo (Bet Now: $4.60). What he did in the Spring in just his first prep was incredible, highlighted of course by his spank job win in the Spring Champion. He has dodged the first half of the Carnival with an eye towards being spot on for the Queen Elizabeth and his trials have been strong. He’s here to rock and roll and make a statement.

Beware the unbeaten horse that is 9 Pinstriped (Bet Now: $5.50). You don’t know how good a horse is til they are beaten. He’s 3/3 to start his career, his latest win coming in the CS Hayes where he really attacked the line late when the race was there to be won and was impressive in winning. 1600m looks no issue and is clearly a key winning chance.

2 Captivant (Bet Now: $6.00) comes here to run a beauty in his GF. Team Snowden are GF trainers and this colt ran in the CS Hayes and was ridden like it was a SF. Got back, ridden conservative, but worked to the line really well when third to Pinstriped. If he can sit closer in the run, he’ll take a stack of beating.

1 Trekking (Bet Now: $21.00) isn’t the greatest on wet ground, in fact he’s pretty ordinary, but he does have a stack of class in his own right, he can sprint well fresh and I do think coming to Flemington, even with the big weight, he’s hard to beat. Resumes for James Cummings, having not raced since a down the track effort in the Classique Legend behind Eduardo. He’s trialled up well leading in. Class nearly gets him home.

12 It’s Me (Bet Now: $9.00) was more than a pass mark in the Triscay I thought. For a few strides, she loomed like she would be some sort of danger, but first up since October 2020, her condition just gave way, but still, a good effort in defeat. Second up syndrome or she bounces off it. Market will be a good guide.

9 Sword Of Mercy (Bet Now: $8.00) has returned well. Resumed three weeks back in the Rubiton at Caulfield in what was a sit/sprint, but she didn’t disgrace herself at all and was good in defeat behind Marine One. Has a great second up record and I do think back to 1000m is a positive.

10 Yonce (Bet Now: $2.80) is definitely blacktype quality. As to what level, I do think with time, she could get to the top level. There was a lot of class/quality about her win two weeks ago here at this trip. Ridden with confidence and a touch of arrogance by Johnny Allen, she was far too good for the Mares. Confident she measures up and wins again.

8 Chantrea (Bet Now: $34.00) is a key threat. Luckless fresh in the Camperdown Cup when clearly should have won. Then went to the Colac Cup and I thought was pretty plain behind Aurora’s Symphony after getting every chance. Third up, so hard fit now and her best can see her be around the mark.

9 Rippa Rita (Bet Now: $13.00) should be suited up to the mile for Greg Eurell. Jury was out on her after last prep but she was a definite pass mark three weeks back at Caulfield when resuming, working to the line pretty well when third to Unanimous. If she can build off that, she commands respect.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 10 Yonce

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Zaaki

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 11 Shadow Devil

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9

Leg Three: 1, 4, 9, 12

Leg Four: 10

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