6/4/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Karrakatta Plate day

The Ascot Autumn Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Karrakatta Plate Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

5 Magic Empire (Bet Now: $2.70)  on top for me, and clearly. Had two trials prior to resuming over 1200m at Bunbury last week where he was outsprinted for the most part but loved the way he picked up the final 75-100m when a close up fifth. 1400m perfect, Pike remains on, depth here not that great and you’d like to think he will take good improvement from the resumption. Keen on his chances.

13 Divine Quest (Bet Now: $5.00) has a tricky draw to overcome for the Colin Webster stable but she’s a filly who hasn’t been far away of late. Ran over this track/distance last Wednesday where she had every chance to win IMO but couldn’t finish it off when a close up fourth. I think from the wide barrier they’ll ride her cold, and hopefully that will see her more effective at the end of the 1400m.

6 Artie’s Jewels (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Karen Kersley trained gelding who looked to trial up really well prior to resuming at Pinjarra in a 3YO Handicap where he sat back in a slowly run affair and while he didn’t win, his effort behind a good one in Sophie’s Song was more than commendable. Reads well for this I would have thought, but may just need to improve a little bit.

Taking a chance on 7 Salon Du Cheval (Bet Now: $3.30), a talented animal for the Lindsey Smithy stable resuming. This bloke hasn’t raced since the Carnival where he was on the Perth Cup path but couldn’t quite measure up in the Tatts Cup and was tipped out for a spell. Comes here with no public trials under the belt but has a dynamite fresh record. Market will be the guide to his chances.

2 Battle Torque (Bet Now: $5.50) is a handy son of Passenger for the Adam Durrant stable resuming. He hasn’t raced since October 6 at Belmont when midfield behind the then in form Dark Prospect. I think he’s better suited at Belmont but does race well at Ascot and the two trials leading in have been encouraging. He’ll likely get back in the run but charge at the end.

9 Settlers Creek (Bet Now: $14.00) is on the seven day back up for the Colin Webster stable after resuming over 1200m here last Saturday in what looked a decent race. He got off the pace and was never really a winning chance, but cut back to the inside when held up a touch and getting clear. Solid to the line and through it. Like he’s on the back up. Just needs to overcome a tricky draw.

8 Catherine Wheel (Bet Now: $3.10) is such an interesting runner. Karen Kersley trains this filly, who debuted down the straight at Pinjarra over two weeks ago and admittedly she didn’t beat much, but it was the manner in which she put them away. Different beast and task this time around, but obviously has to be watched closely given how impressive she was on debut.

1 Excise Free (Bet Now: $4.20) is a filly of some promise for Michael Lane. Had a break before running here a fortnight back where she attempted to lead all the way but unfortunately for her supporters, she copped pressure in front and was grabbed late. Think she will be better with cover and can bounce back for sure despite remaining up in the weights for not an overly big filly.

7 Over There (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Neville Parnham trained filly who is putting together a good little record. Ran here last Wednesday where she settled off the pace but finished off strongly to get the job done. Harder here with more depth, but she’s going about it in the right way and happy to be in her corner provided she doesn’t get back to near last in the run because that might be too big of a task.

10 Send My Love (Bet Now: $3.70) isn’t the most reliable mare going around but in a pretty thin race, I’m happy to lean her way. Ran over 2100m here two weeks ago where I thought O’Donnell gave her every chance but she was really one paced when let down, but kept finding and was only beaten narrowly. Extra trip suits and if she can sit closer, hard to beat IMO.

3 Upward Others (Bet Now: $3.90) won over 2100m here a fortnight back where I’d largely put it down to Carbery lifting the gelding home. Looked in a bit of trouble halfway down the straight but Carbery mostly just went hands and heels throughout and kept finding to get the job done. Meets a similar field this time around and extra 100m should be no concern for this four year old.

5 Midnight Banquet (Bet Now: $11.00) is an Owen Cocking trained gelding who comes through the Upward Others race from two weeks ago when on speed and fighting on okay but just feeling the pinch late when fifth to Upward Others. Likely lands on speed again and in a race with not much depth, she doesn’t have to improve much to figure in the finish and could start silly odds.

2 Lady Cosmology (Bet Now: $6.00) is a high class filly for the Simon Miller team that resumes. This three year old hasn’t raced since the WA Guineas where she tried her guts out but found Arcadia Queen far too good on the day but is the last horse to beat that filly. The Lark Hill trial was okay without being great but she does seem more of a race horse and should be respected.

1 Celebrity Dream (Bet Now: $7.00) is an Adam Durrant trained mare who could easily bounce back here. She contested the Grandstand Cup and for mine was a total forgive behind Achernar Star, sitting three and four wide throughout, totally against her pattern. Actually did a good job to stick on like she did. Better luck this time around and she can win this for sure.

5 Market Ruler (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Simon Miller trained filly who lacks the class of some of these, but has the right racing pattern. She had a pretty busy Spring/Summer where she was tested at blacktype level but couldn’t quite measure up, so she was dropped back to benchmark grade, where she won three races. Been given a break and looked sharp in a recent Lark Hill trial win. Knockout chance.

Really keen to see what 11 Free Trade (Bet Now: $2.00) does. Michael Lane trains this gelding, who debuted at Bunbury late last year where he led all the way and absolutely bolted in, albeit as a well backed odds on pop. Trials leading in have been great to the eye and looks well above average. Confident he can measure up here, especially for an in form and astute stable.

2 Kings Authority (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Stephen Miller trained gelding who is clearly knocking on the door to win a race. Has finished runner up in both runs this time in, the latest coming two weeks ago when beaten a lip by Comparative when off the speed, looming large and hitting the front but was pipped on the peg late. Third up, should just about be ready fitness wise.

1 Speeding Comet (Bet Now: $10.00) doesn’t win out of turn for the Simon Miller stable but usually runs an honest race and shouldn’t be far away. He ran here last Wednesday where he got a fair way back in the run but worked home pretty well when a close up fourth to Dawn Mission. Certainly one for exotics…but a brave soul to back him to win. Goes in the quaddie though.

8 Mizlecki (Bet Now: $4.50) is one of a few that come through the Grandstand Cup from two weeks back and I thought her run was very good. Got held up a couple of times in the straight when building good momentum and should have finished much closer behind Achernar Star. Third up at the mile, she should just about be ready fitness wise and is a definite leading chance.

3 Variation (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Stephen Miller trained gelding who was third up off an 18 month break in the Grandstand Cup where I thought Pateman gave him every chance in the run and he did close off well but didn’t exactly ping when asked when third to Achernar Star. He should just about be ready fitness wise now and up to the mile, he does appeal against these.

9 Rockon Tommy (Bet Now: $10.00) likely sets the speed, but he really need to harness his energy because he can get fired up quite a bit, as we saw last time over 1800m when leading and just tiring late when midfield behind Five Degrees. Should find the lead relatively comfortably from the wide draw and while he lacks the class, he has the right racing pattern and like him back to 1600m.

1 Jericho Missile (Bet Now: $2.70) looks the one with upside. He was several weeks between runs after winning the WA Magic Millions, contesting the Perth Stakes two weeks ago where he led, copped pressure, and fought on strongly, only going down narrowly at the hands of Beethoven. Think with the run under the belt and up to 1200m, he can bounce back and win for sure.

 2 Beethoven (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Dan Morton trained youngster who the A1 run in the Perth Stakes and once presented clear air at the top of the straight, he finished best and just got the better of Jericho Missile with race fitness on his side. I think with an economical run in transit, plus luck, he can win, but think things will need to fall into place for him to hold the margin over Jericho Missile.

Gee I think 5 Tinsnip (Bet Now: $51.00) is really good value in a competitive/even edition of the Karrakatta. Resumed at this track/distance three weeks ago where he was tardy away and lost all chance I thought but closed off and was quite good in defeat behind Spacegirl. Been kept on ice for this and the Lark Hill trial was very impressive, with the big key being the blinkers going on for the first time. If they’re applied for raceday here, gee I think he’ll run a big race.

Happy to side with the Team Pearce trained 10 Supreme Force (Bet Now: $6.50). Looked to trial up well prior to resuming here two weeks ago where he got a fair way back in the run but finished off strongly when beaten narrowly by Comparative. Should take good improvement from that and is one of the hardest to beat. Just don’t want him spotting too much head start.

3 Carocapo (Bet Now: $6.00) is a ripper for Jim Taylor who likely leads this field up. Hasn’t raced for four weeks since racing here where he attempted to lead up all the way and gave a good kick but was pipped on the peg by the above average Pym’s Royale. No horse of that class here…just needs to run 1400m and in order to do that, he’ll need to lead and get a cheap furlong or two.

5 Grey Enigma (Bet Now: $31.00) is a veteran for Neville Parnham but he hasn’t been far away of late. Ran over 1500m here two weeks back and finished off quite well behind the in form Midnight Sky. Looks a bit of a drop in depth this time around, he will get back and be strong late…just doesn’t want to give away too much head start because I don’t think he can do that and win.

BEST BET: Race One Number 5 Magic Empire

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 2 Lady Cosmology

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 7 Salon Du Cheval

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 10, 11

Leg Two: 3, 5, 8, 9

Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 9, 14

Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 10, 12

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful