6/6/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Eagle Farm, Stradbroke Handicap day

Eagle Farm will host a bumper nine race program this Saturday, headlined by a Group l double of the Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) and JJ Atkins (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Market 🏆: View the Field for the Stradbroke Handicap

Market 🏆: View the Field for the JJ Atkins Stakes

2 Advance Warning (Bet Now: $3.70) should prove hard to beat here. His 2000m+ record is very good and proved that again at the Gold Coast just over two weeks ago when ridden a treat by Nothdurft and finished best to just hold out Seentoomany. Was only fourth up there, so he’s got upside to come. Happy to be in his corner.

Michael Costa has 3 Seentoomany (Bet Now: $4.80) going super. Smart ride saw her bolt up over 1800m two back before going to the Advance Warning race at the Gold Coast where she surged hard late to just miss out on picking up the Gollan runner. That was her first run at 2200m and she passed with flying colours. Hard to beat again.

A rise in trip looks ideal for the Chris Waller trained Savabeel gelding 5 Stardome (Bet Now: $10.00). He ran over the mile at the Sunny Coast last Wednesday where he got a fair way back in the run but closed off with real purpose to run fourth to Enterprise Jack. Yet to prove himself beyond 1600m, but is racing as if it will suit him.

4 Soxagon (Bet Now: $2.05) wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Stradbroke as a lightweight chance so with that in mind, he looks terribly hard to beat against these. Class got him home first up over 1200m at the Gold Coast before remaining at that track/distance three weeks ago where it was pretty much a 600m dash, where he had to run 32.5, which he did, so to the eye, it was just a win, but on the clock, it was outstanding. Up to 1400m, looks the winner.

1 Red Chase (Bet Now: $3.40) is in career best form for Desleigh Forster and I think he can continue his winning ways. Looked in a bit of trouble two weeks ago at this track/distance but knuckled down really strongly over the final 150m to nab Thy Kingdom Come on the peg. Not badly treated at the weights given how well he’s racing and should prove hard to beat again.

3 Reckless Choice (Bet Now: $5.50) should prove hard to beat here. Was well backed late when resuming over 1400m here two weeks ago and was given a lovely ride by Boris. Loomed to win the race but his condition just gave out late when a close up fourth to Red Chase. He generally gets better as the prep goes on, so he’ll look the winner at some stage here I’m sure.

7 Totally Charmed (Bet Now: $5.50) should go close. Was on him at this track/distance two weeks ago…and I’m still amazed he got beat. He was given a peach of a ride by Boris and looked all over a winner, but Plenty surged hard nearer the inside and was able to nab him on the peg. Third up, hard fit now and the two runs have been super.

5 Plenty (Bet Now: $8.00) has done a great job since joining Kelly Schweida. All three runs have come at 1200m, winning two back at the Sunny Coast before racing here a fortnight back where he looked too far back at one stage but really picked up late and got the bob in to beat Totally Charmed. Holds his form and will prove hard to hold out.

11 Magic Fox… (Bet Now: $11.00) yes, I know he has his convictions, but he finally gets the combo of a decent jock and a decent barrier. McGillivray went on at Eagle Farm last time out but drew wide and was never really a factor despite running a solid fourth to Potro Duro. Like him back to 1200m…if he can’t go close here, it’s a life ban for sure.

Think this is really good placement by Chris Waller with 11 Mangione (Bet Now: $9.00). Needed the run first up behind Grand Piano at Rosehill. Trialled and went to the 1550m on the Kenso track where he closed off quite well from the back behind Spirit Ridge. Was an excellent third when third up last prep in a much stronger race than this, and he’s got more upside than most engaged.

14 Red Stina… (Bet Now: $2.70) well done if you kept following. Seriously, you would have needed the pockets the size of Twiggy Forrest to butter up time and time again, but if you did, you were finally rewarded with a win two weeks ago at this track/distance where she sat off a good speed, found clear air out wide and finished best. Can she repeat the dose?

9 Mymming (Bet Now: $34.00) isn’t the most reliable mare from a betting perspective but more often than not, she’s around the mark and is one for multiples. Ran over the mile last Wednesday at the Sunny Coast and finished off okay when fourth to Enterprise Jack. Last four runs have come at the mile, so she’s had a decent enough grounding to try her out at 1800m.

6 Jami Lady (Bet Now: $2.70) looks a safe option. Talented mare for Steve O’Dea that resumes, having not raced since January 18 over 1200m here when down the track but looked a tired and O’Dea told Stewards post race that the mare would spell. Been given a good break, trial behind Spurcraft was strong, she gets an ideal run from the gate and goes well fresh. Only runs well I think.

The unknown here is the Matt Kropp trained 7 Spirit’s Choice (Bet Now: $4.00). She can blaze a trail in front if she is in the mood, and on a couple of occasions last prep, she ran her first 600m in sub 34, which is just crazy fast. Resumes without a public trial, but if she wants to force the issue here and turn this into a proper 1000m race, she’s tough and is proven over further. Market will tell you how forward she is.

2 Akasaki (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Stephen Jones trained gelding that can be an improver here at a price. Resumed at Rosehill three weeks ago when doing work near the speed and couldn’t finish it off when down the track behind Adelong, who of course won last Saturday to frank the form. Back to 1000m I do like and his best is certainly good enough.

4 Navy Cross (Bet Now: $7.50) would have been an idea candidate for the Derby, but is hard to beat here regardless. He lacks a turn of foot and if you are on, you’ll be nervous, but he’s just a bulldog and loves to dig in, which is what he has done to win both runs this prep. Looks the leader again and will prove hard to get past.

1 Ballistic Boy (Bet Now: $2.60) looks the one from the Gunsynd, which was over 1800m here a fortnight back. He closed off strongly from off the pace but couldn’t quite get past Supergiant in a very close photo finish. He’s racing as if 2200m will be ideal for him and the Gunsynd has to be one of the stronger form lines for this.

2 Smart Meteor (Bet Now: $20.00) is another from the Gunsynd that should appreciate 2200m. He just got too far back two weeks ago and was never really a winning threat, but was good late for a horse that wants further, which is what he gets here. Does he have the class? I’d say no, but distance will be no issue.

3 Wisdom Of Water (Bet Now: $6.50) gets the nod in an open but solid edition of the JJ Atkins. Has he beat much in both runs this time in? I’m saying no overall, but you only have to look at the way he’s done it. Spanked them by 5.5L first up in what was essentially a barrier trial, and it was much the same in the Ken Russell. From that gate, I think Fradd will come out with intent early and opt for a sit, potentially box seat, and I think 1400m will be okay.

8 Saffiano (Bet Now: $41.00) looks the pick of the Chris Waller runners and the stable rarely gets it wrong when it comes to this race. Didn’t think much of his win in the Clarendon at Rosehill before going to the Ken Russell when back in trip and back near last in an on pace dominated affair. Big track, 1400m, good speed, and Blinkers on tells me it’s chips in for the Grand Final.

Gee he looks silly odds 4 Not An Option (Bet Now: $12.00). IMO, he is a colt who is clearly best on firmer footing despite the stats saying that he is a wet tracker. Hasn’t raced since the Champagne at Randwick when somewhat luckless at a vital stage when midfield behind King’s Legacy. First trial was great, second trial was sluggish, but IMO, he’s a dry track horse, and has class.

Pre barrier draw, I thought Trekking was a good thing, even with the weight. But the wide barrier has turned me right off and after the draw, I’m leaning towards the form line that I thought was rubbish, the Victory Stakes, and the winner of that, 5 Victorem (Bet Now: $8.50), I think can win again. He was outstanding in winning last time and did it with improvement to come. Very well weighted, can see him sitting off this fast speed and showcasing that brilliant turn of foot he has.

7 Crack Me Up (Bet Now: $27.00) looks one of the hardest to beat. Had just one soft 700m trial leading into his resumption several weeks ago in the Takeover Target and I thought he was great from the back in a race dominated by those nearer the speed. Loved the way he found the line and will come right on from that you would assume.

The barrier draw makes it hard, but the run from 6 Tyzone (Bet Now: $17.00) in the Victory Stakes was very good from the back I thought. He’s a horse who has had big weights throughout his career, and the last time he had this sort of weight was last year in the Stradbroke when third to Trekking. Is he going as well in 2020? I’m saying no, but this edition is much weaker than what he faced 12 months ago.

Convinced that 1 Ruuca (Bet Now: $11.00) is a good horse. I think short course might well be his go in life. Wasn’t too bad in the Gold Coast Guineas I thought after getting back in the run but his most impressive win to date was on Manikato night last year when winning brilliantly over 1000m, so giving him a chance at the five furlongs.

5 Niedorp (Bet Now: $3.50) is a Tony Gollan filly who I really like back to 1000m. Ran over 1200m in the Silk Stocking at the Gold Coast three weeks ago where she got a cheap run on speed and seemed to get every chance behind Love You Lucy. That run confirmed that she doesn’t run a strong 1200m, so back to 1000m and back to her own age, I do like.

Giving respect to 3 Kalik (Bet Now: $19.00), who resumes for Tony Haydon. Hasn’t raced since January 18 at Eagle Farm when just off the speed throughout and tried hard, but Master Jamie led from the front and was far too good. That form doesn’t read too bad for a race like this and thought his recent Sunny Coast trial was encouraging enough to suggest he’ll take some beating in a race like this.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 4 Soxagon

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 4 Navy Cross

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 1 Ruuca

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4

Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 8

Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7

Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 7

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful