6/7/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick

Nine races will be run and won at Randwick this Saturday. The weather is overcast , the track is heavy (9) and the rail is out nine metres from the 1600m-Winning Post; Out seven metres for the remainder.

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2 Rule The World (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is a son of Hallowed Crown for the WaterBott stable that trialled up really well prior to debuting at Canterbury where he was a drifter in betting as the support came for Papal Warrior but nobody told him that as he pinged the lids, went straight to the front and was much too good for his rivals. He’ll likely do something similar here and 1300m is no issue.

5 Frosty Rocks (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is a Your Song colt for Bjorn Baker that placed behind Rule The World at Canterbury and I thought his effort in defeat was really good. Had to get going early due to the leader/winner getting it soft in front and he probably wasn’t 100% happy on the tight track but was very good and clocked the best late splits. He’ll eat up 1300m and firmer footing won’t hurt.

I think a testing 1300m on a wet track should be fine for the Kris Lees trained 7 Siesta Key (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS). Yes, it was a Coffs Harbour maiden, but she was taking on the older horses and was spotting the leader several lengths early on in the straight, but just loved the way she knuckled down late to win, with nearly four lengths to the third. Comes straight to town, extra trip ideal and being by So You Think, the wet track will be fine.

Throw at the stumps here in the shape of 12 Caccini (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS), resuming for Norm Gardner. This son of Nicconi hasn’t raced since March 8 at the Sapphire Coast when down the track behind Lincoln Cash Man in a race which has produced four winners, so the form reads okay. What I like is his two wet track runs, which were back at the start of his career. On debut ran third on a heavy track, with the second horse being multiple Stakes winner Winter Bride, and next start placed on soft behind a multiple winner and city performer Stone Cold. Speck each way.

5 Siege Warfare (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is the one that’s popular in early betting and easy to see why with his seemingly love affair with wet ground and the fact he ran very well in what looked a hot Class 2 at Wyong, with Sir Elton winning and city winner Lashes in second. That form does read quite well for this and with the claim for Weir, this gelding looks hard to beat.

The heavy track is a potential unknown re 9 San Marco (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS), but he’s flying for Peter Ball. Loved the way he attacked the line from off the pace to win first up at Coffs Harbour, producing the best late splits of the day in the process. Has okay soft form, but does appear better on top of the ground. so a heavy track is the unknown, but he looks a definite winning chance on form.

I think this race will tell us just how good 8 Sir Elton (Bet Now: $2.15 TOP ODDS) is. Adam Duggan trains this three year old, who has looked outstanding in two career outings, both resulting in wins. On debut, he spanked them at Gosford before stepping up to a Class 2 at Wyong, where it had the depth of a city race, including talented filly Lashes, and he made them look like camels in leading throughout. Good test, but confident he can measure up.

6 Bare Naked Lady (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is racing well for Tracey Bartley but she just can’t quite crack it for another win. Ran at Warwick Farm last time when outside the speed and trying hard but the well supported and talented Jack’s Bar was too tough in the end. Bred to handle a wet track and handled the Soft6 last time. Very consistent and will run her usual honest race.

7 Quick Nick (Bet Now: $51.00 TOP ODDS) will welcome racing back against his own age. He ran over 1000m here two weeks ago against the older horses when having to make his move nearer the inside, which was the quicksand, and he floundered late when fifth to Spiritual Pursuit. That form reads well for this and I think he’s definitely one to put in trifectas and first fours. Knockout chance.

If we can get decent odds about 7 I’m Pretty Strong (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS), I reckon she’s nearly one of the better gambles on the program. Former American mare for Chris Waller that made her Australian debut over 1400m on the Kenso track last Wednesday where she was off the bit before the turn, looking very one paced, then got checked halfway down the straight, but picked up and loved the way she found the line and ran through it. She’ll eat up the mile and seemed to get through the heavy there okay, and the big tick for me is a senior rider taking over.

The interesting runner is 3 Attention Run (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS), a former German galloper making his Australian debut for the Kris Lees stable and Australian Bloodstock. Off his German form, he’d be winning this comfortably because it reads very well, but if you’re going purely off trials, he’d struggle to win a Taree maiden. Has looked very sluggish, but the latest trial saw him sit on speed and fought on well behind Condor, who won first up to frank that form. He’s a huge watch.

8 Decroux (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) rises a fair bit in grade/depth for Jason Deamer and while he brings country/provincial form next to his name, it doesn’t read too bad. Three back placed behind a city performer in Gentle Persuasion, two back ran second to the above average Musume and then last start at Hawkesbury was going to win but threw it away. Couldn’t back him to win, but one for multiples.

8 Our Candidate (Bet Now: $7.00) finds a really good race for his city debut. Looked a good thing over 2100m at Wyong last time hence why he was $1.26 in betting and under a confident steer from Shinn, he was far too good for his rivals despite probably not being 100% happy around the tight track. Up to 2400m on the bigger track, fourth up, he does look hard to beat.

7 Ombudsman (Bet Now: $6.00) is a bit of a nonny for Chris Waller but his recent runs have been encouraging and is hard fit. Ran over 2400m on the Kenso track last Wednesday where he had a really good battle with Fuji Fury and was coming again on the line but that horse had a margin and clung on. His best is clearly good enough to win. Just depends if he wants to show it.

11 Kaapfever (Bet Now: $14.00) is the interesting one. Joe Pride trains this bloke and he was building to a win when racing on the Kenso track last Wednesday and on face value, he was disappointing but I want to be forgiving of that. Gets right down in the weights now to 52kg, I don’t think the 2400m will be an issue and if you’re going off prior efforts, he’s a knockout chance.

7 Top Prospect (Bet Now: $13.00) looks to be going really well for Kris Lees. Been trialling up in good order prior to the resumption over the mile here two weeks ago where he had the suck run three back the fence before angling clear in the straight and he looked dangerous when presented but his condition gave out late. Fitter with upside left, he’s a knockout chance for sure.

I’ll give respect 5 Wu Gok (Bet Now: $5.50) for Chris Waller, who eats mud for breakfast and more than likely gets another heavy track, which will play into his hands. He resumed over 2000m here a fortnight ago where he had the suck run behind the speed and presented to win, hitting the front but was bloused late by Primitivo. Back to 1800m a little concern but have to like the way he resumed.

I Like 4 Mongolian Wolf (Bet Now: $15.00) on the quick back up. The owners didn’t mind his chances last Saturday at Rosehill and on face value, he was just fair, but he was on the worst part of the track and was third up, and I think there is upside with him. Gets the claim for Jenny Duggan and this time is drawn out, so he should get to the best part of the track and is a swimmer.

With the run under the belt, I’m in the corner of 5 Deity (Bet Now: $3.00). This James Cummings trained mare resumed at this track/distance two weeks ago where she paraded as if she would improve with the run and that’s how it panned out, looming to win but her condition just gave out late when third to Spiritual Pursuit. Fitter, she looks a relatively safe option.

4 Revenire (Bet Now: $7.50) is a hard horse to catch for James Cummings but he does find a winnable race here. Contested a pretty strong 88 at Rosehill three weeks ago when back in the run and did make ground late behind Albumin, beaten just under three lengths. Like him back to 78 grade and back to Randwick, where he has run really well at in the past without winning.

9 Epic Dan (Bet Now: $9.00) is the one at silly odds. His race didn’t rate as well as the one Deity comes through, but his run in defeat was enormous given he was wide no cover on speed for the trip but despite that, ambled to the front and looked home, but was bloused late by Southern Lad. Back to 1000m no issue and love Jason Collett back aboard. He rides the horse very well.

Purely a throw at the stumps here in the shape of 6 Arraignment (Bet Now: $27.00) for Joe Pride. This bloke was pretty good first up behind Kapajack before racing here when back and failing to come on behind No Doubt. Back to 1300m I like but the big tick and the reason why he’s worth something small each way is the Blinkers going on, which really sparked him into form last prep, and the wet track is no issue.

D-Day for 9 Ljungberg (Bet Now: $2.15). He has been good in both runs back from a spell, the latest over 1200m at Rosehill three weeks ago where near the speed and chased hard all the way but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow third to River Bird. That does leave me with a doubt or two on him at running this trip right out, but he has showed enough quality for that to carry him a long way.

8 Condor (Bet Now: $7.00) is the interesting runner. He was first up after a 63 week break over 1400m at Newcastle a fortnight ago and he produced a massive win. Was heavily backed and admittedly got a cheap lead, but he was off a long spell and was there to be beaten, but he found plenty and on the line was drawing away. Back to 1300m and second up off a long spell are the negatives, but his best is certainly good enough.

Like 11 Aim For Perfection (Bet Now: $3.00) here. Mark Newnham trains this filly, who looked well above average in her first two career outings, resulting in wins, before racing over 1250m at Canterbury where she was tardy away, pretty much sealing her fate, but loved the way she found the line late behind Misteed, clocking the best late splits of the race. 1400m on the big track, she appeals big time, especially if she jumps clean.

There was plenty of merit in the win of 2 Notation (Bet Now: $5.00) over 1200m here a fortnight ago. She was a month between runs and did work to get on speed. Was there to be run down and beaten but she found plenty under McDougall and was too good. 1400m is no issue, nor is a wet track and you’d like to think given the break between runs there is upside left.

5 Velocita (Bet Now: $11.00) is a daughter of Sebring for Chris Waller that resumes. This mare hasn’t raced since December 22 at Warwick Farm when racing on a bog surface and finishing down the track behind Nicci’s Gold. Has had two 900m trials to prepare for her return and 1400m first up tells me that enough work has been put into her to run well first up. One to watch from a market/yard perspective.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 7 I’m Pretty Strong

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 8 Sir Elton

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 12 Caccini

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 9

Leg Three: 6, 8, 9, 12

Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 7, 11

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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