6/7/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, AR Creswick Stakes day

A bumper nine event meeting has been assembled for Flemington on Saturday for Finals Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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AR Creswick Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the AR Creswick Stakes

3 I Found You (Bet Now: $1.60) is an absolute jet for Team Snowden and has the potential to be the best filly of her generation. Trialled up like a rocket prior to debuting on the Kenso at Randwick. Yes, she had the A1 run in transit, but even allowing for that, the win was arrogant. Interesting she comes here…is this testing the water for the Spring for better races and whether she’ll handle Melbourne. Keen to see her.

2 Earth God (Bet Now: $6.50) is a nice juvenile on the up for Team Freedman. He was a spank job maiden winner at Geelong last time, leading throughout and he gave nothing else a look in to win quite comfortably. Good racing style, he has upside/progression and in a good camp.

1 Golden Warrior (Bet Now: $12.00) hasn’t done much wrong in a three start career for Team Freedman. He has won two of his three runs, bolting up at Ballarat Synthetic two back before going to 1400m at Sandown where he was perfectly rated in front and had enough in hand to score. Back to 1200m is fine, hard fit, in form…likeable.

3 Berkshire Breeze (Bet Now: $1.35) looks a potential Cups horse. He could be the Maher stayer like Persan, Grand Promenade of recent years that go through their grades through the Winter and become a Melbourne Cup horse. His win here a few weeks ago was incredible, giving them a start and a beating, with electric change up speed and he made an absolute mess of them, with the race rating through the roof. Harder here, but off that win, I just think it’s good luck beating him.

1 Born A King (Bet Now: $11.00) looks to have that sense of timing about him. Chris Waller trained stayer that was big odds at the track/distance a fortnight back but he was absolutely trucking in the run under John Allen before angling wider into clear air and he put the race to bed quite quickly, winning with a fair amount of authority. Commands respect.

2 Aberfeldie Boy (Bet Now: $10.00) gets B Shinn on and it could be the last roll of the dice for the horse for the prep because he was really plain behind Born A King in the race mentioned above. He had every chance behind the speed but was quite weak late in the piece. If he brings his best, he is good enough to threaten.

2 Craig (Bet Now: $1.85) should be taking care of these. Busuttin/Young trained three year old that was very stiff not to win two back but made amends two weeks ago with a somewhat arrogant win, drawing clear late and seemingly had plenty in hand to my eye. Stack of upside/improvement to come, I think only bad luck beats him.

1 Rise At Dawn (Bet Now: $4.80) lands on speed and will run his usual honest race. That was the case a fortnight back here when attempting to lead throughout and giving a very strong kick but couldn’t quite see it through, run down late by Craig, but his run was as honest as ever. Good racing style, hard fit, he’ll be around the mark.

5 Enxuto (Bet Now: $26.00) is a must for exotics. This guy comes through the race two weeks back won by Craig where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never threatening, he kept finding the line and was good in defeat behind the Busuttin/Young galloper. Not sure he can win, but must be entertained for wider exotics.

1 Pisces (Bet Now: $2.80) has been up a little while but is holding his form really well for James Cummings. His last couple of runs have come here, finishing runner up each time, firstly over 1200m before going to 1400m a fortnight back where he loomed to win but couldn’t quite get there behind Sneaky Sunrise. Hard fit, racing well, hard to beat.

3 Jenni’s Meadow (Bet Now: $5.50) has been a bit on the one paced side this prep and for mine she will eat up the mile. She comes through the Sneaky Sunrise race from a fortnight back where she got back to near last in the run and spotted those in front a start but kept finding the line and was strong in defeat behind the Maher filly. If she can settle closer, she’ll be quite dangerous.

7 Whateley (Bet Now: $17.00) is an improving type for Busuttin/Young. This youngster debuted two weeks back behind Sneaky Sunrise where he got a suck run on the fence and tried his guts out but on debut, inferior ground, he just couldn’t quite finish it off but was still good in defeat. More upside than most, not dismissing him.

10 Cindy Falls (Bet Now: $7.50) looks a mare with good talent for Team Hope. Former Kiwi that made her Australian debut over the mile at Sandown a few weeks ago when on speed and gave a decent enough kick but just couldn’t quite see it through when third to Arqana. Like her back to 1400m, better for the run, good racing style…she’ll do me.

3 Cardigan Queen (Bet Now: $19.00) can run a race here. I thought her run a fortnight back in defeat behind Brazen Lady was very credible given she was wide no cover for the trip and she was entitled to knock up but she kept finding the line and was really good in defeat. More economical run in transit, she’s dangerous for sure.

9 Fearless Writer (Bet Now: $12.00) has a good record at Flemington and I think on firmer footing, she’s a big improver. Total forgive last time at Rosehill when finding a bottomless deck and she couldn’t pick her feet up in the conditions behind Franz Josef. Prior efforts were quite good so keen to see how she goes against these.

4 Steel Run (Bet Now: $2.80) has done little wrong in three career outings for Mick Kent and commands some form of respect. He was backed with confidence four weeks back here at this trip and while he was an eye catcher from the back, he just got too far out of his ground. More positive ride here, more economical run, he’ll be hard to hold out.

3 Piggyback (Bet Now: $3.60) is a handy filly for Ciaron Maher that I feel will have no issue with 2500m. She is a few weeks between runs since winning over 2000m at Randwick, giving them a start and a beating, launching late to finish best and win well, racing like more ground will suit. Brings fresh legs, strong late, well in at the weights, likeable.

7 Purveyor (Bet Now: $16.00) has the 2400m lead up under the belt, which I think holds him in good stead here. He was down the track in the QLD Derby before going to 2400m at Sandown when on speed and fought hard but just found one better in Herrlich. Good racing style, hard fit, knockout hope.

2 It’sourtime (Bet Now: $20.00) is a straight track specialist that should prove hard to beat. He comes through the Golden Topaz at Swan Hill where he chased strongly from off the speed but was clearly no match for Press Down. Back to where he races best, he has the runs on the board to be rated as one of the leading contenders.

7 Press Down (Bet Now: $2.40) is a ripper for Peter Hardacre so keen to see how he goes here. He hasn’t raced since bolting up in the Golden Topaz at Swan Hill where he looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted, winning quite impressively. Good test here against strong types but confident he can measure up.

3 Crosshaven (Bet Now: $14.00) looks like he has been reverted to being a sprinter and so far, the results have been positive. His last few runs have come down the straight here, the latest being over 1100m two weeks back where he had a suck run out the back before cutting back inside and drove hard late to win. Up to 1200m, has class, leading contender.

3 King Magnus (Bet Now: $14.00) is dangerous. He comes through the Munhamek race from two weeks back where he had a suck run in transit from the gate and kept finding the line in a solid effort behind Munhamek. He has that 1600m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

1 Munhamek (Bet Now: $4.80) is rising nine years of age, but he is racing as well as ever. Big win from him a fortnight back here. He looked as if he’d run a solid third or fourth but the last 100m or so, he really dug in under pressure and savaged the line late to win and got there, just. Hard to knock him and is hard to beat.

9 Galeron (Bet Now: $31.00) is three weeks between runs for Annabel Neasham since racing at Sandown where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, his finale was quite sound in defeat behind Gentleman Roy. Like him at Flemington and if within range, he’s dangerous I dare say.

12 Pharari (Bet Now: $2.25) has the potential to be a Group class horse so keen to see how she goes in town. 2/2 this time in, winning with arrogance fresh at Cranbourne before doing much the same at Ballarat when finding the best ground but she pretty much won like it was a trial. Think she’s pretty good and confident she can confirm it with a win here.

4 Wallenda (Bet Now: $13.00) is flying for Ciaron Maher and can take this out. He ran behind The Black Cloud a fortnight back here, getting a suck run behind the speed and was held up at times before angling clear and finished off strongly. That is two runs on the bounce at 1100m and for mine, he’ll eat up 1200m.

8 Links (Bet Now: $46.00) is unknown at 1200m but she’s racing as if she will appreciate the rise in trip. Her recent runs have come at 1100m, the latest being two weeks back behind The Black Cloud where she got back to last and while she was never threatening, she worked home with purpose. Dangerous if within range.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 12 Pharari

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 I Found You

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 3 King Magnus

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 9, 10

Leg Four: 12

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