Melbourne racing this Saturday heads to Flemington for a strong nine race program. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:00) : Chairman’s Club Handicap 1800m:
Back Me: 6 Sadaqa (Bet Now: $4.00) is a horse who is absolutely low flying at the moment for the Mick Cerchi yard. Ran over this track/distance on Anzac Day where he was given a lovely ride near the speed by Chris Caserta and the horse gave a lovely kick when asked for the big effort, drawing right away late. Maps well again and is again down in the weights.
Big Danger: 1 Articus (Bet Now: $9.00) is the improver here at odds. Former German galloper that ran in the Caulfield Cup behind Jameka before being sent to Weir. Resumed in the Victoria Handicap and was okay without setting the world on fire behind Hooked. 1800m here will give you a better guide as to where this horse is at. On his best form, he spanks them.
Long Shot: 3 Extra Zero (Bet Now: $16.00) is an absolute beauty for the Hayes/Dabernig team. He might be rising 11 years of age, but he is still racing so well and competing quite strongly. Comes through the Easter Cup where he had market support at odds and ran on okay late in the piece behind Observational. Saves his best for Flemington and this is a very winnable assignment.
Race Two (12:35) : Vintage Crop Handicap 2800m:
Back Me: 5 Refectory (Bet Now: $8.00) is a talented stayer for Richard Laming that had been trialling well over the jumps prior to racing over 4000m at Caulfield last time out where he looked gone 600m out but he just kept finding under Oliver and lifted late to surge to the line and win. Tough 2800m at Flemington looks ideal and is a leading contender.
Big Danger: 4 Lucques (Bet Now: $6.00)is knocking down the door to win a race and I think he gets a great chance here. He ran over 2500m here on Anzac Day where he sat off the speed in an absolute crawl and just lacked the turn of foot to go with Hans Holbein. This race carries inferior depth and he is hard fit, ready to go.
Long Shot: 10 Valhalla Princess (Bet Now: $41.00)was a non winner for a long time until she broke the run of outs in a Highweight two back. She then backed that up on Stawell Cup Day over 2700m where she was given a peach by Yendall and finished best in a slog. That should see her cherry ripe for this assignment and she rates highly for me.
Race Three (13:10) : Pharlap Club Plate 1100m:
Back Me: 16 Vivendi (Bet Now: $19.00) is the watch here. Stable have accepted/scratched a few times with this filly so my thinking is that they are looking to win on debut with her, so she could well be the value. Breeding suggests she’ll swim and her Flemington jump outs have been quite impressive. Just has to overcome the tricky draw.
Big Danger: 1 Freeze Over (Bet Now: $3.60) was a dominant debut winner on the Hillside course at Sandown before going to the Dequetteville at Morphettville where she did a power of work on speed and just felt the pinch the final 75m behind Split Lip. Little break between runs should do her the world of good and she strikes a winnable race.
Long Shot: 5 Amastryker (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Matt Laurie trained filly who rises a bit in depth but could easily measure up here. Debuted over 1000m on her home track at Mornington where she lost a bit of momentum on the home turn but once she balanced up she really attacked the line with purpose to run a narrow second. Can only improve off that and the extra 100m will help.
Race Four (13:50) : Comedy King Handicap (90) 1400m:
Back Me: 10 Pure Pride (Bet Now: $2.40) will appreciate the drop in grade/depth after contesting the Coolmore Legacy last time out where she didn’t really handle the shifty/sticky track at all behind Foxplay in what was a messy race. She is better than that and her best efforts in recent times have come at Flemington so give her another chance.
Big Danger: 9 The New Boy (Bet Now: $10.00) is a tough campaigner for the Danny O’Brien yard who will give his all and is always thereabouts. He has had a five week break since racing over 1400m on the Parks track at Morphettville where he had a pretty good run near the speed but just lacked the winning turn of foot behind Here To There. Should be up on speed here and he loves racing on his home track.
Long Shot: 8 Inspector (Bet Now: $9.50)has been up longer than Ron Jeremy but continues to race okay and the step up to 1400m could spark improvement. Ran over 1200m down the straight on Anzac Day and didn’t appreciate the wet track behind Lake Como. He is better than that and this is the sort of race he could easily bob up in.
Race Five (14:30) : Indian Summer Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Overstep (Bet Now: $4.20) looks the way to go here. Ran three weeks back over 1100m at Caulfield where she was desperately unlucky not to finish closer and perhaps win the race behind Merriest. Shuffled back to last and help up before eventually getting clear and savaging the line. Has a bit of class/quality about her and this is a very winnable race.
Big Danger: 7 Divine Quality (Bet Now: $2.40) does indeed appear to have some quality about her. Robbie Griffiths trained daughter of Sepoy that looked good at the Cranbourne jump outs prior to debuting at Bendigo where she sat wide no cover for the trip yet ambled to the front and when asked for the supreme effort by Rawiller, she came right away late and won like a good horse. Confident she can progress here.
Long Shot: 3 Mandee (Bet Now: $15.00) ran over 1200m at Pakenham last time out against the older horses and did a pretty good job in defeat I thought when third to Just Hifalutin. Form has been franked with the runner up Call It A day bolting up at Cranbourne. Just needs to improve a touch up in grade to prove to be a worthy contender.
Race Six (15:10) : TAB/ATA Celebrates Women Trainers Handicap (84) 2000m:
Back Me: 3 Duchess Kate (Bet Now: $26.00) on top for me in a very tough race for the mares. She ran over the mile here on Anzac Day where she sat last in a leader dominated affair and really had no hope but she worked home okay. Crying out for further which she gets here and if there is firmer footing, she’ll go close.
Big Danger: 4 Monogram (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Godolphin mare who doesn’t have the most imposing record but this is the sort of race she could fire in. Ran over the mile here on Anzac Day in a race that really was suited to those near the speed and she just couldn’t make up ground where she was. Up to 2000m will aid her cause, she’s getting fitter and this isn’t a strong race.
Long Shot: 1 Yulong Baby (Bet Now: $21.00) is a quality mare for Mick Price who resumed three weeks back over the Caulfield mile where she sat last in a slowly run race and couldn’t really come on behind Ma Jones. Really good second up record and she does have a pretty good record at Flemington.
Race Seven (15:50) : Primacy Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Widgee Turf (Bet Now: $3.80) is on the quick back up for Patrick Payne after resuming last Saturday at Caulfield where he got a mile back in the run, way out of his ground, yet finished off his race with real purpose to just finish on the heels of the placegetters. 1400m is perfect and I like he is on the quick turnaround.
Big Danger: 1 Urban Ruler (Bet Now: $15.00) was completely unwanted in betting when resuming against the older horses at Sandown and the market got it spot on as he just battled away behind Lauchetti. The worry is that he has a horror second up record, but I think he has enough quality to overcome that and bounce back here.
Long Shot: 14 Social Status (Bet Now: $31.00)rises sharply in grade but I think she can measure up here at odds. Plenty to like about the last start maiden win at Ballarat where she was given a 12/10 by Dee and she dashed right away for a sharp victory. On that run, she looks as if she’ll handle the 1400m big time. Great chance.
Race Eight (16:25) : Sports Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 5 Crystal Dreamer (Bet Now: $4.80) looks the safe way to go here in a very tricky 1000m straight race. Comes through the Bel Esprit where he got into a nice spot from the tricky gate and loomed to win the race but just didn’t quite ping as well as he did first up. I think he might just be a sharp 1000m horse. That’s where he seems most effective.
Big Danger: 10 Gun Case (Bet Now: $11.00)is the best horse in the race, but he does have a couple of versions. The disappointing one came first up at Caulfield where he had a soft trip on the rail but couldn’t come on behind Crystal Dreamer. He does have a very good second up record, and we know he has the quality. Giving another chance.
Long Shot: 11 Bullpit (Bet Now: $14.00) is somewhat of a veteran and hasn’t won for a long time but he has been racing pretty well in recent times. Ran a month back at Caulfield where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a pretty good kick in the straight but just felt the pinch when third to Crystal Dreamer. Loves racing down the straight and if he can dominate proceedings from in front, he’ll take some beating.
Race Nine (17:00) : True Version Handicap (78) 1600m:
Back Me: 7 Steggler (Bet Now: $4.80) resumed over the Ballarat mile last Wednesday and gee I thought he was a real eye catcher, working home with purpose to run third to Elite Tiger. He showed in the Spring that he is a horse with really good promise and I can see him being perfectly suited to the Flemington mile with the fresh legs. Keen.
Big Danger: 16 Stormsabrewing (Bet Now: $4.80) looks one of the best bets right across Australia this weekend. Freshened up before racing at Sandown on Easter Monday and lord almighty, if you backed her, it was just an utter nightmare. Got too far back and had no luck when appearing to have plenty to offer. Very talented mare, and really, she only has to get an ounce of better luck to win this.
Long Shot: 15 Tears Of Joy (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Mark Kavanagh trained mare that resumed over 1300m at Sandown on Easter Monday and did a pretty good job in defeat I thought behind Maternal given she was back and had to make her move nearer the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be for the meeting. Goes well second up and rising to 1600m is a big tick.
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BEST BET: Race Nine Number 7 Steggler
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 10 Pure Pride
VALUE: Race Six Number 3 Duchess Kate
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 9, 14
Leg Three: 2, 5, 9, 10, 11, 15
Leg Four: 1, 3, 7, 15, 16
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