7/11/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Golden Gift day

A strong nine race program has been assembled for Rosehill on Saturday where it is Golden Gift Day, with the $1 Million feature for the juveniles a chance to secure a start in the 2021 Golden Slipper. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Think 4 He Runs Away (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) can make it three on the bounce. Chris Waller trained gelding that has done his recent racing in Queensland and has been quite good, winning two straight, firstly over 2400m at Eagle Farm before a dominant win over 2200m at Doomben. He’s a Waller horse in a purple patch and a likely wet track should be fine.

If this track was firm, would almost declare 3 Parry Sound (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS). Hard to beat still, but the wet track has me cautious because he looked a good thing last week on the Kenso track, but his wheels were spinning on the surface and really, another stride and he gets beat. That leaves me with doubts about his chances, but he is the form midweek stayer going around.

9 Lord Tropicana (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) lacks the class of some of these, but he’s an honest customer who will just keep chipping away. That’s what he did as an odds on pop at Canberra last time out but found one too good in Bouddi, who is an average country horse, so that form is far inferior to this lot, but he likes wet ground and is a definite stayer.

Think there is a bet here in the shape of 14 Diorissima (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS). Don’t think this is a strong Highway and even though she is a maiden, she is still quite progressive. Ran in a Provincial/Country Maiden at Hawkesbury last time out and she clearly should have won. Just had no luck at all in the straight trying to get clear air. Gets right down in the weights after the claim, draws to get clear air…hard to beat.

7 Lucky Banner (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is a progressive mare for the Rod Northam team that is putting together a decent little record. Had a freshen up prior to racing at Newcastle last week and I loved the way she closed off late from the back to get up and win. Tumbles down to 51kg after the claim and 1500m should be fine for her.

Think 12 Up The Stairs (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) is flying for Terry Evans. There is a local meeting on this guys home track in a few weeks time so whether this run tops him off for that, or if this is the target, I’m not sure, but his run last time out at Port Macquarie was excellent from the back, flashing home for a narrow second. If he gets luck from the gate, hard to beat.

4 Petronius (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is a thinker but I think on his home track and potentially getting control in front sways me his way. He ran over 1400m at Warwick Farm last time out when heavily backed. I think he threw the race away, wandering about under pressure and was able to allow Fortress Command to nab him late. If he can lead and get control, he’ll prove hard to get past.

2 Dancing Gidget (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates but he does have talent for the Waller camp. Resumed over 1400m on the Kenso track and battled away pretty well in defeat behind Enchanted Heart, finishing fourth. That mare came out to win last Saturday here, so the form reads well. This guy just doesn’t want the track too wet.

9 Liveinthefastlane (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) has done a really good job since the Price camp has taken over training. Ran over 1550m on the Kenso track last time out and she worked home very strongly from the back when fourth to Le Gai Soleil, beaten a half length. That run proved she can measure up in town and the depth here isn’t strong.

There’s a real sense of timing about 9 Total Recall (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) for Paul Messara. He looked outstanding when winning a Class One/Maiden at Scone last time out. Yes, he beat nothing, but look at the late splits. Around 34 seconds for his last 600m, and did it with 63.5kg on his back. He looks talented and shocked if he didn’t measure up to these.

This looks a target race for a number of gallopers, including 6 Bajan Gold (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS). Arguably should have won the Toowoomba Cup two back before being freshened up. Ran in the Coonabarabran Cup over the mile and worked home well without threatening behind Highly Desired. Fitter, up to 2000m and is the class factor. Hard to beat.

For wider multiples, I’d include 4 Kacper Boy (Bet Now: $61.00 TOP ODDS). Jane Clement trained gelding that ran in the Coonabarabran Cup where he was back near last in the run and never really a winning factor, but liked the way he found the line late behind Highly Desired. Gets a rise in trip, which is a big tick for him and five back he won at the Provincials at Gosford. He’s right in this for sure.

If you back 12 Luvoir (Bet Now: $9.00), don’t think you can go wrong. The Freedman camp has done a really good job with this guy. He has gone to a new level this prep, winning three of his past five, the latest start being a strong win over 1800m on the Kenso track when proving too good from off the speed. Does no work from gate one and only runs well.

2 Stockman (Bet Now: $2.25) is on the quick back up and I think he’s very dangerous with that set up because last prep, he won two races from three in the space of eighteen days. Ran here last Saturday and charged home from the back, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Elaborate. Hard to beat up in trip.

9 Le Gai Soleil (Bet Now: $4.40) looks a progressive type. John O’Shea trained mare that is putting together a good record. Resumed on the Kenso track where the market didn’t want a bar of her. She was a notable drifter but nobody told her that as she produced a sharp sustained run from off the pace to win. She’s progressive and confident she can measure up here.

I’ve been a fan of 2 Captivant (Bet Now: $3.20) since day one and I’m happy to be in his corner here. Was in his corner when he debuted three weeks ago at Randwick and I loved the way he attacked the line from off the pace to win and win impressively. Paul Snowden was beaming post race about this guy. He’s not the finished product, still a bit to learn, but he looks top shelf.

I don’t think 8 Sneaky Five (Bet Now: $6.00) beat much when winning the Inglis Banner on Cox Plate Day, but it was a strong win to the eye after doing early work and the track was a genuine heavy that meeting, so she’s got the wet track run under the belt and the stable have already showed their hand early this season with their juveniles.

1 Ghostwriter (Bet Now: $7.50) is a knockout chance. Annabel Neasham trained colt that was beautifully placed when debuting over 1110m at Doomben. Had to hunt forward to sit on a good speed and was entitled to drop away late, but he kept finding under pressure and was too good. He’s got the 1100m run under the belt and has early speed.

If she brings anything near her best, 1 Savatiano (Bet Now: $3.10) is far better than these I feel. She’s a Group l mare at her best and I just don’t think the Melbourne Spring went to plan after the PB Lawrence. Returns to Sydney with eyes towards defending her Hunter crown you would imagine, and the tick over trial showed she’s in good order.

3 Positive Peace (Bet Now: $2.90) into the mix. That Randwick track two weeks ago was bottomless and she is legless when getting her toe, so actually thought she did a pretty good job in defeat when fourth to Positive Peace. Track won’t be as bad this time around and up to 1400m suits.

12 Tricky Gal (Bet Now: $20.00) is a swimmer and back up to 1400m, she’s not the worst here. Ran in The Nivison two weeks back when getting the suck run behind the speed and tried hard, but just lacked the change up speed to go with the front few. Back up in trip, again drawing soft, a win wouldn’t totally shock at all.

Think the map is kind to 1 Frosty Rocks (Bet Now: $2.25) and I think he can resume a winner for Bjorn Baker. Did a really good job during the Winter, establishing himself as a Saturday class horse with several strong efforts. Like the way he has trialled leading in, should land near the front and he handles all conditions. Hard to beat.

11 Promotions (Bet Now: $2.45) has the good form around him and is just about at peak fitness. Not much went his way first up at Canterbury behind Tricky Gal before going to the Kenso track when on speed and tried hard, but was no match for the turn of foot produced by Enchanted Heart, who won here last Saturday, so that form does read well.

13 Dream Circle (Bet Now: $9.50) is racing well and with the lightweight in the small field, think he can be dangerous. Ran last Wednesday on the Kenso track and closed off okay but overall he had his chance when third to Wairere Falls. The small field helps his cause, given he won’t be far off them, and with only 51kg on his back, he can easily win t

I think 12 Macushla (Bet Now: $5.50) is one of the better gambles on the program I feel. Former Kiwi that makes her Australian debut for Chris Waller. Her form from NZ does read very well. Ran nearly sub 33 for her last 600m when just missing out two back at Ellerslie before stepping up to 1400m at Hawera where the tempo was soft again and those near the speed/rail dominated. If Avdulla can use the inside gate to advantage, I think she’s better than these.

6 So Taken (Bet Now: $5.00) is a stablemate of Macushla that is a long time between wins, but this is one of the easier races she has contested for some time. Ran over 1200m here two weeks ago and closed off okay without threatening behind Hilo. That was a strong 88 race, now to a weak 78…she looks well set up…just can’t catch her.

It’s almost last chance territory with 8 Misteed (Bet Now: $7.00), and I get the impression that is the feeling with the Snowden camp given it is Blinkers on first time, perhaps a last chance to spark improvement. Ran here last Saturday and was plain I thought behind Segalas. She’s a noted wet tracker, so that is her saving grace.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 12 Macushla

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 12 Luvoir

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 1 Diorissima

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 8

Leg Two: 1, 3, 10, 12

Leg Three: Field

Leg Four: 6, 8, 12

$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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