7/12/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ballarat, Ballarat Cup day

A bumper ten race card has been set down for Ballarat on Saturday for Ballarat Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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6 Norse Warrior (Bet Now: $7.50) looks the safe option. Son of Royal Meeting for Phillip Stokes that has had three jumpouts to get ready, the latest seeing him win at Pakenham where he found the outside fence and moved well when asked for the effort by Stackhouse. This race looks even and he does appear to have talent.

9 Prestar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a well bred colt that should be better for the debut run, which came on Cup Day at Flemington when leading and feeling the pinch late when down the track behind Tycoon Star. Better for the run under the belt and the depth here is nowhere near as deep.

8 Stars Aligned (Bet Now: $51.00) is a Lucky Vega colt on debut and has had the benefit of jumpout/trial work, including an official trial at Avoca a few weeks ago where he placed and seemingly moved well enough. Not sure he is a horse I could back to win but is a must for exotics.

3 Dream All Day (Bet Now: $2.00) and is one of the key chances. He resumed over this track/distance where he gave them a start and a beating, rounding them up from last and won by a space in solid enough time. Form around him is strong and he looks to have returned a much better horse. Keen.

6 Dunori (Bet Now: $7.00) will put himself on speed and give a sight, as he did on debut at this track/distance when leading and he gave a strong kick but had no answers late for the finale of Somewhere, who was impressive from the back. Better for the run and if he gets front end control, he takes beating.

4 Juggernaut Joan (Bet Now: $8.00) will put herself on speed and take beating after resuming with an all the way win at Geelong, getting front end control and credit to her, she was there to be beaten but she found under pressure to fend them off. Good upside, good racing style, she can win.

4 Zebella (Bet Now: $7.50) is hard to beat off a freshen up for mine. Phillip Stokes trained mare that hasn’t raced since Oct 19 when on speed over 1200m at Morphettville and tried hard but couldn’t quite see it through when third to Pearl Adios. Looked sharp in a trial win last week and with her racing style, she’ll give herself every chance.

10 Illative (Bet Now: $20.00) is much better suited at this level and appeals. She ran three weeks ago in the How Now where she just found them a bit sharp but I will say, the sit/sprint set up wasn’t to her liking. Better suited here, the win prior was strong, she commands respect.

9 Extremely Rowdy (Bet Now: $7.00) comes through the How Now from three weeks back at Caulfield. She got back and wide in the run but kept on and was pretty good in defeat despite being outclassed on paper behind Niance. Back to 78 grade, she’s hard to beat if there is petrol left in the tank.

4 Pharari (Bet Now: $3.60) picks herself. She should have won over 1100m at Caulfield three weeks ago but got badly held up at the wrong stage when building the revs, eventually getting clear and drove hard late to just miss. Hit and miss she is, but off last run, out of trouble, she takes beating.

7 Miraval Rose (Bet Now: $6.00) has class on her side and class will carry her a long way towards victory. She resumed three weeks ago in the Village Stakes at Caulfield where, for the most part, she had her chance, but she was in somewhat restricted room late when third to Kin. Fitter and back miles in grade/depth, she takes beating.

5 Modown (Bet Now: $7.00) comes here with fresh legs for Charlotte Littlefield, having not raced since Geelong Cup Day where he seemed to have every chance in transit but was a bit on the plain side late when fourth to Oh Too Good. That form does read well and I do think fresh legs, back to 1200m, he has the runs on the board to give this a shake.

15 Unseen Ruler (Bet Now: $21.00) is worth a throw at the stumps in what looks an even contest. He ran at The Valley last time out when fourth to Van Roy and I think had he got clear air earlier, he goes close to winning but it ended up being an ugly watch. If the breaks go his way, I think he’ll take holding out.

9 Madame Odette (Bet Now: $26.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. First run for Team Hayes came three weeks ago at Caulfield over 1400m when a fair way out of her ground and while she was never a winning threat, she kept finding the line and was pretty good in defeat. Better set up here, good upside, she is a leading contender.

3 Kaizad (Bet Now: $13.00) will jump on the bunny and give cheek. He ran three weeks back at Caulfield when attempting to lead throughout and he gave a good sight but just couldn’t quite see it through when fifth to Regal Vow. Hard fit now and with front end control, he’ll take running down.

Keen to be with 15 Tiffany Valentine (Bet Now: $9.00). I can make a case to say she should have won at Caulfield three weeks ago but she had a 3kg apprentice on and I just don’t think an inexperienced rider can get the best out of this mare when a close up fifth. Convinced she is flying and appeals big time against these.

9 Fission (Bet Now: $6.50) is knocking on the door to win. He looked the winner when he was presented clear air two weeks ago at Cranbourne but just found one better in Harry Got Styles, which does seem to be the story of his life, but he’s hard fit, in form, and strikes a winnable race.

20 Don’t Hope So (Bet Now: $9.50) looks to have returned in pretty good order. He resumed over 1000m two weeks back at Cranbourne where he closed off with purpose from the back when third to Harry Got Styles. Fitter and up in trip, more positive ride, he’ll take beating.

9 Mrs Chrissie (Bet Now: $4.20) is the one to beat if she’s ready to go. Ciaron Maher trained mare that resumes, having not raced since July 27 at Caulfield when running fourth in the Bletchingly behind stablemate Recommendation, struggling on the bog. Given a good break and her jumpout work has been sharp.

3 She Dances (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Moody/Coleman trained mare that resumes, having not raced since the How Now in 2023 when a close up third to Rose Quartz, so she has had over a year off but has trialled well and maps perfect near the speed. Market will tell you if she’s ready.

2 Acromantula (Bet Now: $16.00) has had a couple of runs for Team Hayes and has a good racing style for the short course. He was a strong on speed winner at The Valley two back before going to Cup Week at Flemington when down the track behind Way To The Stars. If he finds the top and gets some form of control, he’ll take catching.

11 Claim The Crown (Bet Now: $11.00) is three weeks between runs for Neasham/Archibald since contesting the Country Final at Caulfield where she got a decent run in transit and loomed large to win but just couldn’t quite finish the job when fourth to Torranzino. Has that 2000m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

17 Ruakaka Raider (Bet Now: $4.20) is progressive and heading in the right direction for Cindy Alderson. He landed good bets at odds when winning a few weeks back at Caulfield, finishing best under a sweet steer from Dan Stackhouse. Off that, 2000m should be fine and commands respect.

15 Soul Choice (Bet Now: $46.00) comes here with fresh legs for GaiBott after racing over 2000m during Cup Week at Flemington where she was off speed and couldn’t fire a shot when down the track behind Alma Rise. Fresh legs I don’t mind for her and she did look pretty good in a tick over jumpout.

2 Young Werther (Bet Now: $13.00) comes here with fresh legs for Danny O’Brien. He hasn’t raced since the Caulfield Cup where he found 2400m and the wet track a bridge too far when down the track behind Duke De Sessa. This looks more his go and if there is petrol left in the tank, he should take beating.

1 Future History (Bet Now: $6.50) should prove hard to beat here. He was thrown in the deep end in the Champions Stakes four weeks ago at Flemington and while outclassed behind Via Ssitina, he didn’t disgrace himself in defeat I thought in a really good effort. Back miles in grade/depth, he takes beating.

8 Ain’tnodeeldun (Bet Now: $14.00) looks to have returned in really good order and will take beating. He comes through the Light Infantry Man race from Oaks Day at Flemington where he tried hard from off the speed and kept closing when third. Hard fit and up in trip, he rates highly.

19 Dual Pressure (Bet Now: $14.00) looks ready to win. He was one of the runs of the meeting at Cranbourne two weeks ago, getting back against the pattern and race shape but finished off strongly in a pretty good effort behind all the way winner Nation State. Hopefully with a more fair track, genuine tempo, he’ll take holding out.

13 Sassy Boom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found positive form and she can go on with it. She ran three weeks ago at Caulfield behind Regal Vow and I think you can easily make a case to say that with clear air, she fights the finish out instead of finishing third. Better luck in running, she takes beating.

12 Eye Of The Eagle (Bet Now: $17.00) is three weeks between runs for John McArdle since racing over this trip at Caulfield where he got into a decent spot off the speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite see it through behind Regal Vow. Not sure he is a horse I could back to win but a must for exotics.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 15 Tiffany Valentine

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 9 Mrs Chrissie

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 11 Claim The Crown

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 9

Leg Two: 3, 11, 13, 15, 17

Leg Three: 1, 2

Leg Four: 5, 12, 13, 19

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