7/3/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Supremacy Stakes day

The Ascot Autumn Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Supremacy Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

1 Long Beach (Bet Now: $2.45) has been good to me this prep and I won’t be dropping off. Gee he was impressive in winning over 1200m here two weeks ago. He looked no hope on the turn given he was well back and had an in form Lipstick Flickers several lengths in front of him. Mighty effort to savage the line and nab that mare. Back to his own age and up to 1400m, he’s on top.

4 Eurasia (Bet Now: $6.00) should be ideally suited up to 1400m for Steve Wolfe. Was good in defeat two back over the mile before coming back to 1200m 10 days later and tried hard when second to Tommy Blue. Like him back up in trip now and if Harvey is positive from the gates and lands near the speed, he’ll take some beating.

3 Tommy Blue (Bet Now: $2.50) is a Simon Miller trained three year old who was very good in defeat two back in the Magic Millions behind Cryptic Wonder before winning that race mentioned above from two weeks ago when controlling things on speed and giving nothing else a look in. Just needs to stretch it to 1400m.

If 6 Bedouin Belle (Bet Now: $2.80) can hold up from barrier one, I think she wins. Quality mare for Lou Luciani who is third up here, so she should be at peak fitness. Ran over this track/distance last Saturday when back in the run and closing off strongly when third to Sherpa Lass. Just needs to take advantage of gate one to be winning IMO.

7 Bruce Almighty (Bet Now: $8.50) seems to have turned the corner for Neville Parnham. Bob of the head was the difference between him and victory two back at Pinjarra before racing in a maiden here two weeks ago when getting a sweet run in transit near the speed and was strong to the line in winning. Think he can measure up here.

Not sure that 2 Citichant (Bet Now: $15.00) can beat these, but for multiples, I’d be including her. Ran over this track/distance last time out when wide no cover on speed and rightfully tired in the straight after that hard run. Much better suited here with the barrier, should get a good run near the pace and her best is good enough to be dangerous.

This has serious claims to being one of the worst Saturday metro races I’ve ever come across. Fitter and up to 1400m are big ticks for the Brett Pope trained 1 Son Of The Sun (Bet Now: $2.30). Resumed over 1200m here two weeks ago when getting the 1/1 sit and looked to be going pretty well. Just lacked the turn of foot to put them away when third to Bruce Almighty. Like him up in trip and was very good second up last prep.

3 Knot Known (Bet Now: $5.50) is worth another look I think. He comes through the Bruce Almighty maiden from two weeks ago here over 1200m when first up and just looked in need of the run when running sixth. Form from last prep doesn’t read too bad and I think 1400m will be idea for this Vaughn Sigley runner. One for exotics.

6 Martarello (Bet Now: $5.00) is third pick, but a distant third pick. Was okay two back here behind Eristic before going to Pinjarra when getting the 1/1 sit and not really firing a shot in a disappointing performance. Drawn wide, so I think her best chance of winning will be punching forward and finding the front, looking to dominate proceedings.

4 Red Publisher (Bet Now: $4.20) has the hard 1800m run under the belt and I think that will hold him in good stead for this. He comes through the Detonator from two weeks ago where he was just behind a good speed and tried hard, but a strong 1800m just found him out. Like him back to 1600m and again maps to get an ideal sit off the pace.

Back to 1600m should suit 5 Harry Thomas (Bet Now: $3.20). He was a notable drifter in betting two weeks ago in the Detonator when outside the speed and looked to be going well but at that trip, at that level, he just doesn’t have the change up speed to win but battled away well to run third. Much better placed here I feel.

6 Bella’s Idol (Bet Now: $15.00) may need one or two more runs, but I think she’s in for a good prep. Resumed over 1500m here three weeks ago and was solid in defeat off a long break with no public trials behind the in form Media Baron. Second up syndrome is potentially on the cards but off the resumption, definitely including in exotics.

In the corner of 6 Too Spicy (Bet Now: $4.80) for Luke Fernie. This filly resumes, having not raced since November 9 when a close up third to Our Danni after sitting back in a slowly run affair. Been given a good break with the Karrakatta in mind and her recent Lark Hill trial was quite good to the eye. Hard to beat from the gate.

Looks to be real intent with 5 Our Danni (Bet Now: $3.30). This girl resumed here two weeks ago when near the speed and looked to travel well but when it came to the crunch time, she couldn’t quite finish it off when a close up third. Blinkers are on for this and not the big one, so for me, that says intent to win and has early speed to overcome the draw.

Not sure that 8 Janaura (Bet Now: $9.00) is a serious Karrakatta contender but I think this is a race she can run well in. Ran at this track/distance three weeks ago when getting a lovely sit just off the speed and presented to win in the straight but couldn’t quite hold on when pipped late by Sunnysilk. Well in at the weights and should run well.

Class/Quality of 1 Laverrod (Bet Now: $1.95) gets him home here IMO. Above average three year old for Sean Casey that resumes after a three run Summer Carnival prep. Went very close to winning the Placid Ark and Lee Steere before dropping back to this level and bolted up. Sharp trial win leading in and 1000m first up from a good gate, he’s the pony to bet on.

2 Ziebell (Bet Now: $4.20) looks a key chance for Luke Fernie. Ran over 1100m here last time out when pinging the lids to lead and was keen in the run but class got him home and was too good. Like him back to 1000m and with race fitness on his side and with the wide gate, he doesn’t have to use as much energy to ping the lids.

I think back to 1000m is a big tick for the Brett Wilkinson trained gelding 3 Comes A Time (Bet Now: $4.40). He ran over 1200m here two weeks ago when on speed and fighting on okay in defeat when third to Tommy Blue. Just think six furlongs at this level sees him out, so like him back to 1000m, he’s hard fit and will give a sight.

1 Pym’s Royale (Bet Now: $4.60) is a quality son of Husson for Peter Fernie that resumes. This gelding had a very good Winter/Spring prep, highlighted of course by his wins during the Kalgoorlie Carnival. Midfield in the Hannans but the winner, Tellem We’re Comin, is a classy animal, so that form reads very well. Just where he gets to from the gate is the unknown.

5 Red Can Man (Bet Now: $1.90) is a son of Gingerbread Man that is first up for the Steve Wolfe team. This three year old hasn’t raced since the WA Guineas when running a very good third after sitting on speed. That form obviously reads well with Kay Cee coming out and winning the Kingston Town. Two trials have been excellent and is hard to beat…odds on is just too short.

2 Speeding Comet (Bet Now: $7.50) doesn’t win out of turn for Simon Miller but he does race really well and for the most part isn’t far away from the thick end of the prize. Ran over 1400m here a few weeks ago and looked to get a good run in transit just off the speed, tried hard, but was no match for Coming Around. Little knock coming back to 1200m, but he’s racing well and can land on speed and potentially control things.

Giving 1 Here Comes Lenni (Bet Now: $7.00) one more chance. Just couldn’t quite finish it off first up in the Narrogin Cup behind Burning Pride before racing over this track/distance two weeks ago and tried hard when fifth to Morning Song. Big thing for this guy is that all three career wins in WA have come when Lucy Warwick has steered and she’s back on for this race.

2 Morning Song (Bet Now: $3.40) is flying this time in for Team Williams and no reason why she can’t continue her winning ways. Lovely ride from Johnston-Porter saw her win at this track/distance a fortnight ago, sitting off the speed before peeling wider and surging hard late to win impressively. Well in after the claim for Chris Graham and is hard to beat.

Colin Webster had a couple of runners nominated for this race, but he goes with the sole rep in 4 Crystal Valley (Bet Now: $12.00). He comes through the Morning Song from two weeks ago when getting a soft run out the back and tried hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off. Good tick for her that the Hind Bar Plates are off, so her feet must be getting better.

7 Special Choice (Bet Now: $3.20) for me. Team Williams trains this filly, who resumed at this track/distance three weeks ago and really liked the way she finished her race off from the back when a closing second to Sophie’s Song, who was beaten last Saturday, so the form is a tad suspect, but all the upside in the world is with this filly.

3 Lipstick Flickers (Bet Now: $3.50) is flying this time in for Team Harvey. Both runs this prep have come over 1200m here, winning narrowly but impressively first up before racing again here two weeks ago and looking home but was nabbed near the peg by Long Beach. Gets run of the race from the gate and is 2/2 when produced third up. They are the only three winning hopes.

1 Smarty (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Galah mare for Luke Fernie that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since November 9 over this track/distance when sitting back before peeling into clear air and showing sharp sustained speed to get another win on the board. She has a really good fresh record and liked the way she went in a recent Lark Hill trial.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Laverrod

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 6 Bedouin Belle

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 1 Here Comes Lenni

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6

Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 7

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful