7/5/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield

Nine races have been set down for Caulfield on Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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2 Merchant Prince (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) looks the class of the field and I’ll bank on that getting him home. He has been freshened up since a solid effort in the VRC Sires at Flemington where 1400m was probably just a bridge too far. Tick over jumpout to tune him up, he was luckless in the Blue Diamond at this track/distance the start prior. Clearly reads well.

1 Liberty Steps (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) is heading in the right direction for Team Hayes. Three weeks between runs since winning at this track/distance, showing good fight late when challenged to fend them off and win, beating Jamarra, who won at the Bool on Wednesday. Overall, this is a weak race, so he has to rate highly.

3 Lincoln Square (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is a Greg Eurell trained gelding that is on debut. Bred to be a handy one being by Rubick out of former class mare Redasun. Recent jumpout work has been solid enough and he does get the leading rider in Melbourne to steer, so watch the market.

Safe option appears to be 4 White Hibiscus (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) for Danny O’Brien. She ran over the mile at Ballarat last time out where she got a mile out of her ground but loved the way she found the line late when second to Highland Jakk. Back to Mares grade, hoping for a positive ride, and if that eventuates, she’s the pony to bet on.

6 Princess Rhaenys (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) has a touch of quality about her when right. Just a matter of where is she at second up after a long break. Did enough I thought fresh at Sandown when back and making up some headway behind Our Lone Star. Fitter, up in trip, if she’s fit enough, she can win.

2 Mimi’s Award (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to the mile and getting back to Mares grade. Resumed over 1400m at here two weeks back in a solidly run race and was just run off her legs when last to Tokorangi. 2000m+ is when she comes into her own, but has enough quality to run a much improved race.

3 Little Stevie (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a ripping mare for Simon Zahra that is racing in career best form. Three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where she got back in the run and charged late without threatening when second to a Stakes class animal in Clemenceau. Hard to beat back to Mares grade.

6 Embeller (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) is a John Thompson trained mare that comes back to the scene of the crime of her win last start, which was four weeks ago when a strong winner from off the speed under McDougall, who remains on for this. More depth here, but she commands respect.

11 Madame Bolli (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) should get an ideal map from the gate. Hasn’t raced for several weeks since being far from disgraced in defeat over 955m at The Valley behind track/distance specialist Young Liam. Recent Sandown jumpout was solid and should get a suck run. Definite winning chance.

Bit of juice in the track is idea for 9 Sig Positano (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS). Patrick Payne trained gelding that resumed down the straight at Flemington on Anzac Day and was good late, just missing out on the win when a close up third to Beehunter. Fitter, back to a bending track, upside, he’ll take beating.

8 Destination (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1200m. This four year old ran over 1100m here three weeks back where he got back in the run and worked home okay but was beaten fair and square by Clemenceau, a horse I have plenty of time for. Up to 1200m, he can take this out.

1 Khoekhoe (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is a very interesting runner. Matt Cumani trained gelding that resumes after a two run Spring prep where he failed to fire and was straight away tipped out. Good record at the track and Blinkers first time, gee his best would be good enough to give this a shake.

3 It’sourtime (Bet Now: $2.60) is a quality sprinter for Danny O’Brien that resumed here two weeks ago in the Bel Esprit where he worked to the line quite strongly from off the speed when second to Extreme Warrior. Good second up record…would love him down the straight at Flemington but he’s hard to beat here regardless.

6 Rock The Ring (Bet Now: $10.00) needs to run a very positive race to warrant a crack at the Goodwood. I was keen on him being a Goodwood contender for the locals but jury is out on how well he is going. Second to Lombardo fresh in the Manihi before going to the Railway at Oakbank and he was quite disappointing behind All Banter. His best sees him go close. Just needs to show it.

12 Zorro’s Dream (Bet Now: $11.00) is flying for Mitch Freedman and can take this out. Narrow second two back at Flemington before going to Bendigo several weeks ago where he was good late from last on the turn behind impressive winner Colesridge. With a drag into the race, within range, he’ll take beating.

2 Clemenceau (Bet Now: $1.60) should be winning. Very progressive animal for Team Hawkes that is three weeks between runs since resuming here where he didn’t seem to handle the turn that flash but once straightened up, away he went and he spanked them. Back to his own age, improvement to come, good luck beating him.

1 Scissor Step (Bet Now: $4.50) is the only threat on paper, if any. Dominant first up win at Caulfield before going to the Gold Dash where he chased and tried his guts out, but was no match late for Midwest. 1200m should be fine, and with hard fitness, he appeals against this lot.

4 Linas Legend (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Danny O’Brien trained three year old that had been really disappointing this time but it all changed at Bendigo where he dropped back in class, he was ridden confidently and duly saluted. He’s back in business now…question being can he hold it.

8 Uncle Bryn (Bet Now: $1.90) could be a Spring horse if he keeps winning. Ran at Sale on Good Friday where he was absolutely trucking in the run. Just a matter of pushing the button and away he went under Zahra, making a mess of them. A dominant win here, and they can set their sights on a Spring assault.

Tactics will be fascinating aboard 4 Thought Of That (Bet Now: $20.00). He’s a flat track bully who loves to lead and dominate from the front, so if they push the button early and find the top, he becomes a serious threat to Uncle Bryn. If they snag back for cover, then I’d say he’s making up the numbers. Positive ride, he’s right in the mix.

5 Mankayan (Bet Now: $13.00) has that feeling he could be the 2022 version of Persan/Grand Promenade where they run throughout the Winter, win races and squeeze into the Melbourne Cup. He is better suited over further, clearly, but has the right polish and should be strong at the end.

Quite keen here on 8 The Claimant (Bet Now: $5.00) for Mick Kent. He ran two weeks ago in the VOBIS Sires Guineas at Caulfield and was a real eye catcher from last on the turn when third to Chartres. Could be a Queensland Derby sleeper, especially for an astute camp like this, so keen to see him at 2000m.

15 Hollywood Park (Bet Now: $13.00) will eat up 2000m it seems like. He broke his maiden tag last start over 1700m at Sale, where he got control in front and he gave them a spanking in a dominant display. He’s bred to eat up further, so the 2000m should be fine and is a key threat.

4 Elskling (Bet Now: $11.00) has no idea what she is doing, but she does have a decent engine under the hood. Looked all over a winner at Cranbourne last start against the Mares and despite showing no turn of foot, she had too much brilliance for them. Back to her own age, confident she can measure up.

9 Flash Aah (Bet Now: $3.70) is third up from a break, should be hard fit and deserves another chance. First run for the stable saw him bolt up fresh at Bendigo. He then went to Flemington on Anzac Day and just wanted to lay in under pressure, but was clearly no match for Makram, who could well be above average. Happy to give him another look.

8 Pancho (Bet Now: $14.00) should appreciate the rise to 2000m. Ran over 1700m at Flemington on Anzac Day when near the speed throughout and tried hard, but didn’t have the change up speed to match it with Makram in a good effort. Crying out for more ground, he gets it now and should take beating.

13 Barade (Bet Now: $41.00) has had a couple of runs at the mile now and should be suited up in trip. Ran in the Makram race on Anzac Day and while he was never really a threat, he was good late for a horse best suited at 2000m+. Might want one more run, but has more upside than most.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 8 Uncle Bryn

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Clemenceau

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 8 The Claimant

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 8

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 8, 15

Leg Four: 8, 9, 10, 13

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

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