8/1/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield

Nine races will be run and won at Caulfield on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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1 Merchant Prince (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) looks to be well educated and for the very much in form Peter Moody camp, he gets the nod in the opener. Had a prep in the Winter/Spring without a run. Spelled and jumped out a couple of weeks ago at Pakenham where he looked to move quite well. When in doubt, go for the form stable and P G Moody is the stable to follow.

4 Philosopher (Bet Now: $1.95 TOP ODDS) looks to have his share of talent. Team Freedman trains this colt that is similar to Merchant Prince. Had a prep without a run, spelled, returns and has looked sharp in a couple of jumpout wins. Draws soft and is bred to be precocious, so watch the market.

9 Poiema (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Territories for Michael Moroney that is on debut. She’s had a couple of jumpouts to get ready for start one and hasn’t been too bad to the eye each time she has stepped out. Gets a suck run from the gate and has the in form Jye McNeil steering.

5 Ruru (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) should be suited here. Chris Waller trained mare that has been solid her past couple. her latest run being over 2500m at Flemington when far from disgraced in defeat behind Seawhatyouthink. She was a few weeks between runs there, so you’d like to think there is improvement to come.

2 The Awesome Sun (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) is racing well for Julius Sandhu. Ran over 2000m here on Boxing Day when ridden cold and probably had to make too long of a sustained run when close up in defeat behind Daqiansweet Junior. On breeding, 2400m is okay and he’s a horse in form.

8 Eaton (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) can sneak a first four spot. He’s getting on in years but is maintaining a healthy zest for racing. Attempted to lead throughout at Mornington last time out and battled away okay when close up in defeat behind Spirit Of Gold. Not sure he wins, but one for exotics.

1 Lavish Girl (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is three weeks between runs for the Maher/Eustace camp since a dominant win over 1400m at Flemington. Put into a lovely spot under Teo Nugent, she was there to be run down but when asked for the big effort, she responded and drew clear. You’d think she has improvement to come and is the one to beat.

4 Russians (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) looks to have her share of talent. James Cummings trained filly that was far from disgraced on debut behind a subsequent winner, Kir Royale. Then went to Canterbury where she was given a peach by Bowman and wore them down to win. Bred to eat up further, so she commands respect.

2 Luna Cat (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a query at 1400m but hard to knock the way she’s racing for Team Hayes. Put together a couple of sharp wins prior to racing at Flemington over 1400m where she was there to win and beat Lavish Girl but on the line, she was safely held when second. Honest, in form, the stable is flying, she has to be respected.

When the field first came out, I wanted to slightly risk 5 Marine One (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) due to the wide gate and where he would get in the run. But a few key scratchings and a bullish stable talking up his chances is swaying me his way. Hasn’t raced since Pakenham Cup Day where his class came to the fore and he was much too good. 1100m is a query, but this looks a good race to find out.

6 Snapper (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1100m. Michael Moroney trained gelding that resumed over 1000m at Flemington a few weeks ago. He was off the speed throughout and worked to the line pretty well albeit never really a threat to Scorched Earth. Like him up in trip and stable is in form.

16 Invincible Jet (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) can be an improver here for the WaterBott camp. Jumped out well prior to resuming at this track/distance where he got a back from a sticky gate and couldn’t really come on behind In The Boat. He goes very well second up and hopefully gets a more positive steer.

7 Reliable Dude (Bet Now: $2.40) on top. He has been quite strong in two runs back from a spell. First up at Sandown was warming to the task late behind Mister Yu Shu. Then went to Flemington and was a real eye catcher from near last in the run behind Gracias Amigo. Hard fit now, up to 1800m likeable.

3 Dirty Deeds (Bet Now: $4.60) deserves another chance. Ran last Saturday at Flemington where I thought Alana Kelly rode an ordinary race on the gelding. Pressed forward to sit three wide no cover where there was no chance of slotting in. Horse had to tire and did. The horse must have pleased the stable this week to warrant backing up.

Good test here for 6 Misterzee (Bet Now: $20.00) but he deserves a crack in town after two wins on the bounce, both times seeing him sit on speed and kick on strongly when it counts. Those wins came in weak 64 races, so this is a step up for him, but he’s got the right racing pattern.

I’m with 9 Excelman (Bet Now: $5.00). Lovely ride from McDougall saw him bolt up fresh on Cup Day at Flemington in the Subzero race. He then went to the Eclipse Stakes and was just outclassed in what was a solid Group race. Back to here, with the lightweight, he’ll sit on speed and prove hard to beat.

5 In A Twinkling (Bet Now: $6.50) is back on track. He looked to be ticking along beautifully towards the Bagot but he didn’t fire a shot in the Pakenham Cup so Lindsey Smith freshened him up for the Lord Stakes and he ran a beauty when second to Holbein. Now back up in trip, off that run, he has to be respected.

6 Ho Ho Khan (Bet Now: $8.00) is capable. He just got run off his legs last time out in the Summer Cup at Randwick and worked home okay late without threatening behind surprise winner Parry Sound. Whether he wants further now, not sure, but this is a very winnable race for him.

6 Sig Positano (Bet Now: $1.95) is flying for Patrick Payne and is bursting to win a race in town. Can make a strong case to say that swap the run with Excelida from Boxing Day and you switch the result. That was the difference. Excelida had clear air to build the revs whereas Sig Positano didn’t. If he gets that clear air here, he’ll look the winner for a fair chunk.

4 Neighbourhood (Bet Now: $8.50) is a hard mare to catch but her best is certainly good enough to be competitive here. Ran over 1400m three weeks ago at Flemington and was okay late without threatening behind Second Slip, with that form not exactly ticked off last Saturday in the Chester Manifold, so that’s a query, but she has talent and fourth up, should be hard fit.

First up at 1400m I do like for 5 Polanco (Bet Now: $23.00). This gelding hasn’t raced since the Wangoom Handicap during the Warrnambool carnival where he just found them a bit sharp behind Inn Keeper. 1400m first up tells me he’s ready to go, so I’d watch the market and see what it does.

9 It’sourtime (Bet Now: $3.50) for me. Danny O’Brien trained gelding that was a strong first up winner here on Stakes Day during Cup Week. Freshened up and ran over 1200m at Flemington a few weeks ago where he was hailed as the winner but was nabbed on the peg by Not To Be Mist. Fitter, he’ll take beating.

15 Scorched Earth (Bet Now: $3.10) is a quality filly for John Moloney that didn’t quite measure up in the early part of the Spring. Spelled and resumed over 1000m at Flemington where she was given a peach by Olly, who gets on well with her, and the filly reacted by showing good change up speed to win. She can win again.

4 Ocean Beyond (Bet Now: $21.00) comes here five weeks between runs for Daniel Bowman since racing on Pakenham Cup Day where on paper, he was plain, but was found to be lame post race so a total forgive behind Defiant Dancer. Fresh legs back to 1100m, interesting to see how he goes.

10 Vespertine (Bet Now: $5.50) has a shocking racing pattern, but if she’s within range 400m out, good luck holding her out. Her late splits were enormous at Flemington fresh, charging from the back to run second to Florescent Star. Just needs to get a drag into the race so she can unleash her brilliant finale.

2 Awapuni Princess (Bet Now: $9.00) is a talented mare for Team Freedman that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since August 14 when far from disgraced here behind Bella Nipotina, who has since become a Stakes winner and went within a lip of a Manikato win, so the form reads super and has jumped out well in readiness.

5 Little Stevie (Bet Now: $26.00) is a capable mare for Simon Zahra that resumes. Hasn’t raced since June 30 when producing an end of prep run at Sandown in what has turned out to be a red hot form race won by D’Aguilar. She usually sprints well fresh and looks to have jumped out well in readiness for her return.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 10 Vespertine

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Lavish Girl

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 1 Merchant Prince

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5, 6, 7, 9

Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6

Leg Three: 4, 8, 9, 15, 17

Leg Four: 10

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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