8/11/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, VRC Kennedy Oaks day

Melbourne Cup Week continues at Flemington on Thursday where it is Oaks Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

Oaks Field 🏆: View the VRC Oaks Field

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Like the look of 5 Chicago Bull (Bet Now: $2.90 FAT ODDS) for the Gelagotis team. He trialled a few weeks back at Cranbourne and looked very good to my eye. He was on speed in his particular jump out, led and looked to things very nicely, a real pro for a two year old. Drawn to get clear and does have gate speed. Happy to be with him.

9 Vinicunca (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS) is a daughter of I Am Invincible having her first start for the WaterBott stable. This girl has won a couple of jump outs at Flemington and looked pretty good to the eye. Wayne Lordan booked to steer, she has gate speed, so she can sit wherever she likes in terms of the track and prove hard to run down.

1 Wedgetail (Bet Now: $15.00 FAT ODDS) is a Tony McEvoy trained colt who was good first up in the Debutant behind Champagne Boom before going to the Inglis Banner where he was one of many victims in that race in a total forgive. Trained on the track and has jumped out well down the straight prior to the debut. Likeable.

9 Cabierro (Bet Now: $12.00 FAT ODDS) is racing well for Anthony Freedman. Just needs to put another win on the board. Ran over the mile on Sale Cup Day she was back and held up early on in the straight but got clear and finished off strongly to run second to All Hard Wood. Third horse was Ripplebrook, so the form ties in and has to be respected.

Can #SF strike with 6 Palmateer (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS)? This girl has been really good recently in Sydney, her latest run over 1550m on the Kensington track at Randwick when a closing third to Sky Boy, who has franked the form since. Think up to 1700m is perfect for this mare and looks one of the hardest to beat.

I think now she has won a race, I think 4 Guipure (Bet Now: $19.00 FAT ODDS) can go right on with it now. Ran over the mile on Moe Cup Day last time against the boys where Lane had her up on speed and she was there to be beaten by a handy one in Ripplebrook but she knuckled down and found plenty late when challenged. 1700m no issue, back to the mares grade, she appeals.

7 Savacool (Bet Now: $3.90 FAT ODDS) is an interesting runner. Thought she would head to the Matriarch on Saturday but she has accepted to run here and clearly has to rate highly. Ran over 2000m at Randwick last time and I thought she did a very good job off a moderate tempo when second to Sky Boy. Back to 1800m a little query but down in the weights and gets a lovely run from the draw.

8 Live And Free (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS) looks back on track. He was too bad to be true when resuming on the Kensington track at Randwick before racing on the course proper where he was back in a slowly run race and was nearer the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be yet still ran on well to run fourth. Third up at 1800m, he appeals.

4 Astoria (Bet Now: $14.00 FAT ODDS) looks to be back on track. Jury was out off the back of a couple of below par runs but he was very good over the mile at Randwick last time when a close up third to Smart As You Think. He’ll love the rise to 1800m and has run and performed in much better races than this. Gate a little tricky.

6 Andaz (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS) looks a great bet for mine. Chris Waller trains this four year old, who you only have to cast your mind back to this time last year ran a ripper in the Coolmore Stud. Hasns’t gone on with it since, but his run at Warwick Farm last time was full of merit when beaten a lip by a handy one in Red Currant. Got the right form and class to beat these.

1 Powerline (Bet Now: $11.00 FAT ODDS) has had a couple of cracks at this race and looks set up to run well once again. Ran over 1200m at Randwick a couple of Saturdays back and stuck to the task well in defeat I thought when fourth to Coruscate, his first run in a month. Has room for improvement condition wise and up to 1400m a big tick.

12 Ivoryman (Bet Now: $51.00 FAT ODDS) has had a few homes during his career but seems to be racing in career best form under the care of Scott Brunton in Tassie. Produced some of the better late splits of the night when winning over 1400m at Launceston last time, albeit in a much easier race than this. Always have to respect the stable.

The potential is clearly there with 13 Cochada (Bet Now: $7.00) so I’ll lean his way. Ran over 1400m on Sale Cup Day and for mine he just got too far back but his run was very good in defeat behind Toosbuy. He races as if the mile will be ideal and has sat closer in the run in previous outings. If that can happen, he’ll take beating.

1 Superhard (Bet Now: $5.50) just has to tick the 1600m box to look the winner. Ran over 1400m on Bendigo Cup Day where I thought it was an absolute peach from Zahra that got the job done. The 1600m is the only negative with him because he needs to be cuddled given he has a short, sharp turn of foot. Ticks that box and he’ll look the winner.

7 Akkadian (Bet Now: $9.50) should love the step up to the mile. He ran second to Superhard in the Bendigo race mentioned above where he just got too far back but had to like the way he finished off. Likely gets decent three wide cover from the gate and can be dangerous, and has run well here in his earlier days.

4 Kaepernick (Bet Now: $5.50) seems to be loving life at the moment. He hasn’t raced since the Concorde at Randwick where he closed off for a ripping second to Redzel, which is the A1 form. Been kept on ice for Cup Week, has trialled up enormous a couple of times and appeals big time against this lot.

Great to see 8 Illustrious Lad (Bet Now: $8.50) back at the races. He hasn’t raced since the Al Quoz at Meydan where he ran a mighty fifth on the world stage behind a high class animal in Jungle Cat. Dynamite fresh horse and gee he looked sharp in a recent Cranbourne trial win. Class will carry him a long way towards victory.

11 Bandipur (Bet Now: $20.00) for me. He seems to be a really good fresh and this appears to be a target race for James Cummings. Put together a couple on the bounce before coming to Melbourne where he was good in a couple of strong races. Went back to Sydney and loved the way he went in a Warwick Farm trial. Has run well down the straight before and for mine looks one of a few ways you could go.

6 Junipal (Bet Now: $4.80) looks a decent enough horse for Darren Weir. Gave them a galloping lesson two back to break the maiden at Donald before going to the mile on Blue Sapphire Day at Caulfield where he was a bit one paced but sound behind Syd’s Coin. Think 1800m and the bigger track are two big ticks.

Back to 1800m should suit the Matt Laurie trained 3 Real Success (Bet Now: $4.20). He ran in the Vase on Cox Plate Day and probably found the class/trip a bit much but he wasn’t terrible by any stretch behind Stars Of Carrum, who ran well in the Derby. This looks more his level and off the win two back, he’s in the game.

I’m happy to give 10 Tavidance (Bet Now: $7.50) another chance. Thought he was excellent on debut when winning over 1400m at Ballarat before going to the mile there against the older horses and on face value he was poor behind Charlton but there was heavy market support to suggest he’d win. Respecting that and the fact breeding suggests this trip will suit.

If she runs the trip, 1 Amphitrite (Bet Now: $3.20) will win. It was an absolute horror show if you were on her in the Empire Rose on Saturday. It was a barrier trial. No luck at all in the straight and went to the line under a hold. Hasn’t had the gut buster so she should have fresh legs and does everything right unlike Verry Elleegant.

4 Verry Elleegant…(Bet Now: $5.00) what to do with her? I think she’s a better horse than Amphitrite but my god she just does too much wrong. That was evident in the Wakeful. Just pulled her head off and had nothing left for the straight when down the track behind Aristia. She’s got a Group l motor. Just has no idea what the caper is about.

10 Scamper (Bet Now: $35.00) is a lightly raced daughter of Fastnet Rock for Team Corstens who is trying to force her way into the Oaks field. Ran in a maiden at Yarra Valley over 1950m last Saturday and despite doing a bit wrong in putting them away, she did it impressively the final few strides. Bigger track and up to 2500m looks ideal. Does she have the class? No. But trip won’t be an issue if she relaxes.

Just has to tick the straight box and 3 Humma Humma (Bet Now: $5.50) will be winning for mine. Gee she’s been a beauty this time in for John McArdle but keeps finding one or two better. She certainly found one better last time at Caulfield, running second to Sunlight, and we know what that girl has done since. Back to 1100m, back a touch in depth, she appeals.

16 Bleu Roche (Bet Now: $5.50) is a talented filly for Matt Laurie who was one of the better runs of the afternoon on Cox Plate Day in the Red Anchor when closing off hard from the back to run fourth after sitting wide in the run. Loved her run here down the straight the start prior and draws to get cover off a good speed.

The unknown here is 5 Multaja (Bet Now: $16.00). James Cummings tried her out as a Thousand Guineas filly but that theory was put to bed after a below par run in the Prelude. Been freshened up and trialled up well a couple of weeks back behind a good one in Stampede. At her best, she’s clearly up to beating these.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Amphitrite

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 3 Humma Mumma

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 13 Cochada

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 11

Leg Two: 3, 6, 10, 14

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 3, 5, 8, 16

$50 Investment= 44.64% of the dividend if successful

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