9/10/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot

(TBA) races will be run and won at Gawler on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

3 Kosta’s Crown (Bet Now: $3.60) gets the nod. Team Casey trained son of Supido that makes his debut and looks to be a good type. Has won both trials to get ready for start one, the latest over 850m when on speed and looked to be trucking nicely before being clicked up and away he went. Happy to be in his corner.

8 Pot Shot (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Dion Luciani trained filly having start one and the big lead/tick for her is that the stable finds Pike to steer. Jade McNaught has ridden in both trials and has won both trials. Whether McNaught chose to ride another or the stable wanted Pike, not sure, but I don’t think they’re complaining.

McNaught rides 6 Brontes Dream (Bet Now: $5.50), a stablemate of Pot Shot, so whether that is a lead and that she had first choice, not sure. This girl has won all three trials she has contested and every time, McNaught has steered. I think the best thing is to watch the market and see what it does.

Fitter and up in trip, pretty keen on 5 Frequent Friar (Bet Now: $10.00) for Hayden Ballantyne. He resumed over 1300m during the Kalgoorlie Carnival last week and I thought he was excellent from the back for a horse that will be suited over further. He’ll want more than a mile but I think he’ll be too good for this lot.

2 Ginger Flyer (Bet Now: $2.00) is a query at the mile but the one thing she does have going for her is the claim and a potentially soft lead. She’s been on speed her past few runs and has fought on really well. If she can get a mid race breather in front, she could turn it into a sit/sprint.

4 Brother Paddy (Bet Now: $11.00) should be suited here and is hard to beat. He ran over 1700m here last time out. Loomed to win and was there to beat Celebrity Witness but the 1700m just found him out. Back to the mile, hard fit, racing well and knocking on the door to win.

4 Axel ‘R’ Eight (Bet Now: $3.70) on top for me. This guy is a few weeks between runs and comes back in trip, but he is a horse in form and should be strong late. Last start was a strong winner over 2100m at Belmont and the form out of it since has been solid. Maps super from the draw and he’ll do me.

2 Roman Flirt (Bet Now: $6.00) can bounce back onto a firmer deck. Last couple of runs, I think she has had excuses. Two back, just didn’t finish off on the wet track. To the eye, last start she was plain, but was found to be lame post race. Good lead that Pike sticks and this is a winnable race at her best.

7 Alimentaria (Bet Now: $7.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Second up run was over 1700m at Belmont when on speed and she fought hard, giving a solid kick, but just felt the pinch late when third to Celebrity Witness. Good third up record and is a key threat.

I’m going to speck 6 Temptacion (Bet Now: $10.00) each way. Dan Morton trained mare that hasn’t been far away of late and I think getting to Ascot is a big tick for her. Held up at times last start at Belmont. Not sure she wins but should have finished closer. Gets a jockey upgrade, so I think each way, she is worth a bet.

9 Reliable Star (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented four year old mare that was somewhat unwanted in betting when resuming at Belmont but it mattered not to this girl as she came with a well timed run from the back to nail them near the peg. Potentially heading towards a Perth Cup, so fitter and up to the mile, she appeals.

4 Rebel Knight (Bet Now: $5.50) hasn’t been far away of late and getting back to Ascot is a tick for him. On speed at Belmont two weeks ago and tried hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Karijini Aurora. Lands in a good spot from the draw, he’ll take beating I’d suggest.

4 Kaptain Kaos (Bet Now: $2.40) could be a local hope for the Railway. He needs to keep winning to ensure that, but no reason why he can’t. Arrogant ride from Parnham three weeks ago at Belmont but he was miles too good for them. He’s heading in the right direction and confident he wins again.

9 Karijini Aurora (Bet Now: $5.50) needs to bring her Belmont form to Ascot but Pike sticking helps the cause. He rode the mare a treat when a strong winner at Belmont last time out. She’s in career best form and maps super from the gate. Just needs to handle the track.

2 Excellent Dream (Bet Now: $10.00) saves his best for Ascot so he can be a big improver here at odds. Just went a bit keen in the run last start in the Nicopolis but was far from disgraced. If he relaxes in the run, back onto his favourite track, an improved showing is on the cards.

Bit of guessing involved here, but I’ll bank on Pike getting it right with 6 Pure Devotion (Bet Now: $4.20). He had a few picks for this race but goes with the Oaks place getter from last season. Better suited over further, but looked to trial up well leading in and Pike rarely gets it wrong.

7 Secret Statue (Bet Now: $11.00) is the other Team Williams horse that commands respect. He resumes as well, ending last prep on a high with a strong win from off the pace at Belmont. Didn’t trial as well as Pure Devotion to my eye but is better suited at this trip and can spring well fresh.

2 Downforce (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Neville Parnham trained gelding that is a month between runs since a down the track effort at Belmont, where he didn’t seem to apprentice the give in the track. Two big ticks for him here. First one, he prefers a dry deck, which he will get here. The other big tick is Ascot. He saves his best for here.

4 Graceful Girl (Bet Now: $2.05) clearly on top for me. Daughter of Nicconi that resumes for Team Williams. This girl hasn’t raced since a dominant win in the Autumn in the Raconteur. She’s one of a number of these Williams/Peters runners that look Railway/Kingston Town runners, so really keen to see how she goes. I think she can resume a winner.

Good test here for 8 Come Magic (Bet Now: $8.50) but she is a likely prospect for Dion Luciani and comes here with hard fitness under the belt. Led throughout and was dominant two weeks ago at Belmont under Pike. Visually was good, but have to keep in mind there was a clear bias towards those on speed/rail, where she was. Has to improve, but no reason why she can’t.

1 Chartleton Eddie (Bet Now: $5.50) is the class runner of the field. Three weeks between runs since being on speed in the Nicopolis and he fought on really hard, just failing to get the win when a narrow fourth to Iseered Iseered. Saves his best for Belmont. Just doesn’t want to burn too many candles from the gate.

2 Miss Conteki (Bet Now: $3.40) is an absolute beauty for Simon Miller that resumes. She is a 1000m specialist so she is first up at her pet trip and Parnham rides. Looked great in a recent trial and though will likely be back near last, she has the finale to overcome that and win.

Market will be fascinating with 4 Battle Storm (Bet Now: $3.50). Talented sprinter for Team Williams that resumes, having not raced since May 29 when producing the best late splits of the meeting from the back. Good trial to get ready and at his best, he is Stakes class, so a market watch for sure.

11 Island Charm (Bet Now: $17.00) resumes here for Roy Rogers and I think she can be dangerous at odds. Did a good job in her 3YO season but the stable tried to stretch her out to 1200m. IMO, she’s a 1000m horse, so a tick in that regard, and although no public trials, you’d assume she’s ready to go, but market will tell you that.

Every year we see a three year old measure up/run well in a Kingston Town. I think 13 Arcadia Grace (Bet Now: $3.00) could well be that three year old. Has the breeding, has the right colours, seemingly has class and the change up speed she produced on debut at Northam was outstanding. She’s destined for better races than this and confident she wins.

3 Spin The Knife (Bet Now: $3.90) has to stretch his brilliance to 1200m but he does have hard fitness, good racing style and a turn of foot. He was dominant at Belmont last time in a race which had good depth to it. If this track plays to those on speed, which it can do, he’ll take beating.

4 Ruthless Tycoon (Bet Now: $9.00) will need luck from the draw but he does have a good engine under the hood. It was a mess for him first up behind Spin The Knife. I doubt he would have won, but should have finished much closer. Draw makes it tough, but I like him as a horse.

I’m with 10 Secret Plan (Bet Now: $2.20), who resumes for Team Williams. This guy hasn’t raced since July 10 when an impressive winner on wet ground at Belmont, and that form has stood up big time with five winners coming out of it. Lovely trial win to get ready and should take some beating.

8 Sassy Trader (Bet Now: $10.00) is in a real purple patch at the moment for the Casey camp. Dominant all the way win three weeks ago at Belmont. He was there to be run down but found under pressure and on the line was safely holding his rivals. Good record at Ascot, presses forward and will take running down.

1 Comfort Me (Bet Now: $12.00) generally saves his best for Belmont so getting away from there and running on a track where he is 0/4 is the concern, but just looks to map super with Chris Parnham to steer. Freshened up after a down the track effort behind Belmont and seemingly had every chance. Nice trial to get ready, soft gate…take away his Ascot record, he’d be respected big time here.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 4 Kaptain Kaos

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 13 Arcadia Grace

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 6 Temptacion

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 8

Leg Two: 2, 4, 7, 11

Leg Three: 13

Leg Four: 1, 8, 10, 12, 15

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful