9/3/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Newmarket Handicap day

A bumper eight race program has been assembled for Flemington on Saturday for Newmarket Handicap Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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3 Gumdrops (Bet Now: $8.00) is a sharp filly for Price/Kent that resumes. She had a two run Spring prep, winning both, including the Crockett on Cox Plate Day at The Valley. She looked outstanding in a recent jumpout at Cranbourne and seems a short course type so she’s suited to the 1100m here IMO. Hard to beat.

4 Hedged (Bet Now: $2.70) has a decent engine under the hood so keen to see him resume. Price/Kent trained three year old that hasn’t raced since October 1 when a dominant winner at Sandown when sitting just off the speed before angling into clear air and gee he made an absolute mess of them. Has looked strong in jumpout work and is one of the leading contenders.

2 Hanchi (Bet Now: $10.00) is a talented three year old for Team Casey that rates highly. He was several weeks between runs when racing at Caulfield last time. He got a fair way out of his ground and was held up at times but was good late in the piece when eventually clear behind surprise all the way winner Twin Perfection. Fitter, back to his own age, he appeals.

2 Berkeley Square (Bet Now: $2.35) is clearly the one to beat I feel…but it’s last chance territory. He ran last Saturday in the Blamey where he was in restricted room and didn’t really get a proper chance to build into the race by Atishu. Like him up in trip and drawn out in the small field, he should get a drag into the race, clear air, and launch late.

Fitter and up to 1800m are two big ticks for 2 Young Werther (Bet Now: $2.35). Danny O’Brien trained galloper that resumed in the Carlyon Cup a few weeks back where he was near the speed throughout and tried his guts out but seemingly had his chance I thought when third to Yonce. Better set up here, he can run an improved race.

Back to 1800m and Flemington are two big ticks for 4 Bermadez (Bet Now: $12.00), who ran four weeks back over 2000m at Caulfield where he just found the trip a bridge too far when down the track behind Bermadez. Saves his best for Flemington, like him back in trip and he does race well with fresh legs.

2 Scully (Bet Now: $10.00) has always shown good talent and I think this prep, he is starting to fulfill it. Dominant win fresh at Sandown before bumping into Extratwo at The Valley. He then went to the Zeditave at Caulfield and was very good against the pattern behind all the way winner Raikoke. That is two runs on the bounce at 1200m and he’s racing like he wants more ground, which is what he gets here.

7 Pivot City (Bet Now: $7.00) is a handy colt for Price/Kent that is hard to beat I’d suggest. He ran in the Zeditave two weeks ago at Caulfield. He got back to near last in the run, ridden cold, and against the pattern, he was pretty good late behind Raikoke. Up in trip is fine and he does have the engine under the hood. Just needs to show it on race day.

Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for 1 Scheelite (Bet Now: $6.50). Team Keys trained three year old that resumed a fortnight back in the Zeditave at Caulfield. He paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out behind Raikoke, but that said, he wasn’t too bad against the pattern. Like him up to 1400m and his best is certainly good enough.

Now stay with me when I say I like 12 Shaalute (Bet Now: $27.00). Liam Howley trains this colt, who was $101 on debut at Pakenham. He ran second last, but I am convinced had he got clear air, he would have gone close. His 600-400 of 10.97 was the second quickest in the race and the 400-200 of 11 flat was the quickest in the race, clearly, and that’s when he got badly stopped in his tracks. Had jumped out well prior to that debut, he’ll love 1400m at Flemington and at the odds, you don’t need much on to find out. Took a slice of $201 on Monday. I think he should be much shorter.

I really like 3 Traffic Warden (Bet Now: $5.00) as a horse. He comes through the Blue Diamond from two weeks ago. He got a mile out of his ground and yes, race shape suited him, but he was still very good late in the piece behind Hayasugi, clocking decent late splits. He’ll love getting to 1400m at Flemington, he gets an in form J Kah…keen to see him at 1400m.

1 Rue De Royale (Bet Now: $3.70) is a key threat. Team McEvoy trained juvenile that ran in the Blue Diamond and he was similar to Traffic Warden, working home strongly from near last on the turn, beaten three lengths in a really good effort. He too will love getting to 1400m at Flemington and being more within range. he’ll take holding out.

1 Imperatriz (Bet Now: $2.80) can well and truly confirm herself to be a champion with a win here. She resumed with a bang in the Lightning when leading throughout and gee she was brave because Private Eye was there to beat her but she found superbly and was strongest late in winning. Champion mare if she can carry topweight and win this. She can…but from a betting perspective, it’s not a proposition for me at the current price. $3+ and I’d be interested.

3 Buenos Noches (Bet Now: $5.00) is three weeks between runs for Matty Smith since resuming in the Expressway at Randwick where he was ridden far too negatively I thought and he was set an impossible task. He was good late but was never a winning threat. He has run well down the straight previously and has been set for the race. Dangerous.

If there is a complete blowout, I think 10 Master Fay (Bet Now: $27.00) is the horse. Remarkable story, a former Hong Kong horse that has only had three starts, but all three starts, he has looked so impressive, and Chad Ormsby knows what level of horse is required here given he was part of the Moroney camp with Roch N Horse a couple of years ago. Down in the weights, drawn wide, strong late, trucked in a jumpout…I think he only runs well.

I think you have to believe what you see from 11 Into You (Bet Now: $21.00). Yes, she has beaten nothing in two wins this time in, but the arrogance of each victory…gee it has been something to behold, notably the win last week at Sandown where she gave them a start and a beating. There is serious doubt about this crop of 3YO’s as a whole and how strong the depth is, so why not something on the up?

5 Autumn Angel (Bet Now: $4.60) is hard to beat for Moody/Coleman. She was kept safe in betting when resuming at Caulfield in the Angus Armanasco. She got a fair way out of her ground and while she was never really a winning threat, I liked the way she found the line late in the piece. Gets a much better set up here and with a jockey upgrade, she rates highly.

9 French Endeavour (Bet Now: $15.00) is a filly I have time for. Matty Smith trains and she was good in defeat last time in The Vanity, getting back in the run but was able to slice her way through and drove hard, but couldn’t quite get past Grinzinger Belle. Like her up in trip and with a more positive steer, she’ll take holding out.

3 Amenable (Bet Now: $1.80) has been a frustrating horse to follow since day one but I do think he has Group l talent…is this the prep where he can realise that potential? He resumes, having not raced since The Toorak when on speed and stuck to the task really well in defeat behind Attrition. His jumpout work has always been strong but this time in, it has looked extra good. I think he can resume a winner.

1 Berkshire Shadow (Bet Now: $7.50) is the interesting runner. UK galloper that makes his Australian debut for Ciaron Maher. His overseas form is very strong. The query is his trial/jumpout, where a 3000m+ horse went better than him. That tells me either this horse is a race day animal, or he hasn’t come up. Market will be fascinating.

4 Savannah Cloud (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripper for Phillip Stokes and commands respect. He resumed three weeks ago at this track/distance when on speed and he tried his guts out but just couldn’t quite get there but stayed on and was sound in defeat when third to Makram. On speed, fitter, tough…dangerous.

6 Foxy Cleopatra (Bet Now: $5.50) is running out of chances but back to Mares grade, this is D-Day for her. She comes through the Peter Young where they again rode her with a sit and she was never really a factor behind Campionessa. It’s clear she has no proper change up speed when racing at 1600m+ so I am hoping they ride forward, with intent, because I am convinced she is racing well. Just hasn’t been ridden great.

3 Unusual Culture (Bet Now: $3.70) is a Ciaron Maher trained mare that comes back to the mile after racing over 1800m in the Peter Young a fortnight back. She was ridden with intent, sitting on speed, and giving a strong kick but 1800m just saw her out behind Campionessa. Like her back to the mile and with the 1800m run under the belt, that holds her in good stead.

11 Rivaport (Bet Now: $46.00) is in with a shout at odds for Grahame Begg. She was 1600m back to 1400m three weeks back in the Tresaady. She got back in the run and although she was never really a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind the in form Revolutionary Miss. Back up in trip, fitter, she’s dangerous at odds.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 2 Berkeley Square

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 3 Amenable

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 12 Shaalute

 

Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 10

Leg Two: 5, 6, 7, 9, 11

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 3, 6, 10, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful.