9/5/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield

Nine races will be run and won at Caulfield on Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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Leaning the way of 1 National Choice (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) for the Price/Kent team. Was confidently supported when debuting at Geelong over 1200m and under Olly, the bets were landed. Of the two 2YO races that meeting, the time he ran was much quicker, and the time stacked up well with the Benchmark 70 on the same day, so think that bodes well here in what looks a winnable race.

2 Galactic Fury (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Street Boss for the Maher/Eustace camp that had his first run as a gelding in The Showdown here three weeks ago and I thought his effort was quite good. Was wide most of the way and under pressure on the turn but kept finding and was really good in defeat I thought in running third. He’ll come on from that you would assume and his overall form reads well.

7 River Twain (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is a stablemate of National Choice that is still a maiden but is showing good talent. Both runs this prep have come at Bendigo, running fifth first up over 1000m before stepping up to 1100m, ridden cold and finding the line strongly late when second to The Last Charge. Up to 1200m I do like and can take advantage of gate one.

10 Write Your Name (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) certainly has the talent to take this race out but he can let punters down big time. Comes through the Jumbo Ozaki race from three weeks ago here where he was near the speed throughout and battled away well to run fourth. Blinkers are back on, Winkers are off, but I think the other change that is most important is Jordan Childs back on. He rides the horse so well.

12 Sikorsky (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) looks hard to beat. Son of Pierro for the Hayes/Dabernig team that has had two runs back from a long break. Definite pass mark first up at Bendigo behind Beautiful Flyer before going to 1400m at Caulfield, only up 100m in trip, but loved the way he found the line in a fast run race won by Jumbo Ozaki. He should be near peak fitness and clearly is one of the hardest to beat.

16 So You Swing (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of So You Think that resumes for the Ellerton/Zahra camp. This mare hasn’t raced since Cup Week at Flemington when second over 1700m behind Nudge in a blanket finish but the form out of that has been solid. Recent jumpout was encouraging, and while she’s better over a bit further, watch the market.

Think a rise to 1600m will be okay for the Price/Kent filly 9 Sandsation (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS). Was quite good here two back over 1400m when fourth to Oasis Girl before remaining at that trip at Geelong and was close up when third to Let’s Get Tempted, beaten just under a length. She doesn’t really have a turn of foot, so the rise in trip should be okay.

7 Heyington Station (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) looks like he is ready for the step up to 1600m. Was good over 1400m here off a slow tempo behind Leale two back before going to Flemington and was more than sound in defeat when fourth to Kuramae. He’s racing as if 1600m will suit but noteworthy in all three runs back from a spell, he’s been friendless in betting, so watch the market.

5 Astraeus (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) certainly has the ability to take this out but his racing manners are a concern because he can get quite keen. That was evident over 1700m at Flemington last time out and had nothing left for the straight behind Betcha Flying. Like Thomas Stockdale going on and I think holds up from the inside gate. Just needs to relax.

Tricky race but leaning the way of 2 Pure Scot (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Three weeks between runs since contesting the VOBIS Distaff over 1400m here and liked the way she stuck on in defeat when third to the in form Clarice Cliffs. Craig Williams rides this mare very well and she finds such a winnable race. In her corner.

9 Cryptic Jewel (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is a Brent Stanley trained mare that comes through the Naivasha race from two weeks back at Flemington and I thought her effort was enormous given she was a race day scratching a few days prior for a 2100m race, so remaining at the mile, she finished off hard, only getting bloused late by the O’Brien mare. Does she want a rise in trip? Time will tell, but has a touch of class.

12 Part Time Lover (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is an Ellerton/Zahra trained mare that doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates but she does dry try and is usually thereabouts. Was far from disgraced two back in the Distaff at Caulfield before backing up a week later at Flemington, stepping up to the mile, and was honest without being super behind Naivasha. Could prove hard to beat back to Caulfield.

Best on the program for me in 6 It’s King Of Magic (Bet Now: $2.90), a quality filly for Brent Stanley that resumes. This girl created such a good impression during the Summer, so much so that she went to the Magic Millions Guineas when far from disgraced in defeat behind Alligator Blood. Two Bendigo jumpouts have been very impressive and the tick is that Olly rides.

Second up syndrome is the only knock with 9 Felicia (Bet Now: $6.00). Had 15 months off and switched stables prior to the resumption in the Gold Dash at Caulfield and worked home very strongly late when third to Lankan Star. Off that run, she should eat up 1200m. The only query is that run was super. Will she be flat second up off a long break en route to a third up bounce back.

3 Sassy Salitage (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Greg Eurell trained filly that is five weeks between runs since racing over 1100m here on a very testing heavy track and she struggled to pick her feet up behind Ancestry. She’s a filly who does seem best with fresh legs and on firmer footing, so hopefully she gets that here and at her best, she’ll go close.

Back 100m in trip is the only knock with 8 Hang Man (Bet Now: $3.10) but he looks to be flying so I’ll lean his way. Was okay late first up over 1400m here in the Victoria Handicap behind Bam’s On Fire in what has turned out to be a good form race. Then went to 1700m at Flemington and loved the way he found the line when second to Rupture. Up to 2000m, he’d be a good thing. Just back to the mile is the only query.

2 So Si Bon (Bet Now: $2.90) has been an enigma for a few seasons but to be fair to him, he’s done a great job with the Hayes/Dabernig team. He was well fancied last time out in the VOBIS Gold Mile and was very strong to the line in winning, showing his class late in drawing clear. Harder here, but he’s going super and has to be respected.

Back to Caulfield, wanting to give 3 Sikandarabad (Bet Now: $11.00) another chance. Pipped near the peg here two back by Kentucky Breeze before going to Flemington and just did a bit too much work from the wide gate when midfield behind the in form Rupture. Think getting back to Caulfield and back to 1600m really helps his chances.

Think the weather forecast will determine the winning chances of 3 Nobu (Bet Now: $11.00). I’m hoping we get a dry deck because I think he’s going well and could be a bet at odds here in a tricky race. He wasn’t too bad from the back here last time out in testing conditions behind Salsamor, but is clearly best on top of the ground and the form around him reads superior to these. Just want a dry track.

11 Aussie Nugget (Bet Now: $7.50) hasn’t done much wrong in three runs back from a break for the Anthony Freedman camp. Bit one paced over this track/distance two back behind Lucabelle before going to the Bendigo mile where he was given a beaut steer by Jye McNeil and was strong late in getting the job done. Like him up to 1800m and should take some beating.

A rise to 1800m should be ideal for the Danny O’Brien trained four year old 10 Grinzinger Star (Bet Now: $6.50). He ran over the mile at Bendigo last start when given every chance by Olly and tried hard but couldn’t hold out Aussie Nugget in a driving go to the line. Little while between wins and up in trip, getting hard fit, he’s likeable.

Tricky race this, so going for some value in 4 Rich Itch (Bet Now: $21.00) for the Shawn Mathrick team. This gelding is first up, having not raced since Cup Week at Flemington when midfield and probably at the end of a long prep. He is a horse who certainly handles wet ground and looked to jump out quite well on Monday, plus Dwayne Dunn gets on well with him. Hopefully for a good speed in front so he can launch late.

3 William Thomas (Bet Now: $5.00) has had a mixed prep for John Price but has found some form. Ran in the Bel Esprit at this track/distance three weeks ago when back in the run before peeling wider on the turn and in a couple of strides put them away and gave them a spanking. Harder here I think, but when he finds form, he generally holds it.

7 Tavisan (Bet Now: $7.50) has to be given another chance. Resumed in the Furphy on the Parks track at Morphettville when on speed and trying hard but condition gave out late when fifth to Bella Vella, who franked that form by winning the Robert Sangster, so that form is A1 for a race like this and will improve with that run under the belt.

3 Absolute Flirt (Bet Now: $2.90) in the get out. Danny O’Brien trained filly that is five weeks between runs since racing over 1100m here on testing ground and was okay from the back behind impressive winner Ancestry. Back on firmer footing should suit her and a fast run 1000m, can see her getting back and finishing over the top.

2 Moi Choux (Bet Now: $12.00) is son of Jimmy Choux for Richard Laming that looks to have his share of ability. Has won three of his four career outings, with the defeat coming two back at Echuca when wide no cover throughout. Last start at Sale, he led throughout under Emily Brown and was far too good. Olly jumps on, presses forward and will take catching.

10 Lucifer’s Reward (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Brendan McCarthy trained three year old that has been racing in okay form in recent times, but I think the body of work proves that he is just a 1000m race, so he gets the set up here for that. Comes through the VOBIS Dash when far from disgraced in defeat behind Lankan Star. Knockout chance for sure.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 6 It’s Kind Of Magic

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 National Choice

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 3 Nobu

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 8, 9

Leg Two: 3, 10, 11, 12

Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 8, 12

Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6, 10

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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