The focus for Saturday’s racing may be at Flemington but Warwick Farm will also host a fantastic days racing which is highlighted by the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes where we see the return of Shoot Out and Manighar who hold equal favouritism in the race.
Besides the feature race we also get to see some very good two year olds go around in the Lonhro Plate and some upcoming star Fillies in the Surround Stakes which is dominated by Grahame Begg trained Bennetta. We take a look at the days racing which looks to be very competitive in all of the races which provides punters some very good betting prospects.
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Race One: Schweppes Handicap 2200m Form Guide
Back Me: Award Season has been well backed in the first and he looks the horse to beat coming out of the Mornington Cup behind Tuscan Fire. He opened at $2.60 and is now at what i think is his right quote of even money although i wouldn’t take anything under $2.
Don’t Back Me: Tunes has poor barrier manors and often misses the jump. He will get back in the run and if there is to be a winner from back it will be Award Season.
Big Danger: Tremec has won his last two but finds a tougher field here than those races and has been well supported into a quote of $5.50 that i think is unders, thus i a have gone with the favourite to win the race.
Roughie: Urban Explorer opened at $13 which i thought was very good value in the small field but others thought that also and have backed him into his right quote although i still feel he is the best value in the race.
$250 Award Season Free Bet
Race Two: Lonhro Plate 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: The Villa Verde form has stood up in these two year old races which is why im going with Scandiva here. She was well beaten on debut but was well in the market on that occasion and has had over five months to mature from the run and at $7 looks a good bet.
Don’t Back Me: Va Pensiero had all of the favours last start and i doubt he can make it back to back wins but these two year old races are hard to predict.
Big Danger: Whittington has promised a lot after his first up win early in the two year old season and he should have improved from his first up run when second this preparation and be hard to beat.
Roughie: Im not the only one who thought The Oval Office looked very good odds at $67. Did a lot wrong in his only run and did well to finish third and may produce a blow out in the race.
$250 Scandiva Free Bet
Race Three: Wiggle Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Streama resumed in the Southern Cross Stakes where she ran a very good second, and if you look at her form she is yet to win first up and always improves at her second start for the preparation and i also think she is a better horse than the rest of the field and looks great odds at $3.30.
Don’t Back Me: Despite her win in the Breeders Classic i dont think it was a very good form line, and at $2.50 i think Steps In Time is well under the overs and im very happy to leave her out.
Big Danger: Appearance ran very well first up and i think she can go on from that run on Saturday where she has drifted slightly in the market but still well supported by punters.
Roughie: When the rain came last start Colorado Claire’s chances diminished and at $15 on Saturday i think that is great value for a very talented galloper.
$250 Streama Free Bet
Race Four: Pro-Ride Handicap 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Despite finishing ninth and seventh in his previous two starts i think Izababe has a great chance in this race on Saturday where you can still get $8.50 for him as he is coming out of a much better form line than the favourite.
Don’t Back Me: Mr Edison always gets back and flashes home late but hardly ever wins a race and at Warwick Farm i dont think will suit his running style and history agrees with seven starts at the racecourse for no wins.
Big Danger: Under The Sun is the big danger in the race and should be at his current quote of $2.30. Ran second first up last start which was very good but im not sure if thats the best form line heading into this race thus i havent got him at top at his quote as there is better value elsewhere.
Roughie:
$250 Izababe Free Bet
Race Five: Liverpool City Cup 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Julienas will be first up in the Liverpool City Cup on Saturday which is one of the reasons i have him on top. He is currently a $12 chance in the market which is great value, he runs well first up likes the track and distance and should go close at double figure odds.
Don’t Back Me: Riva De Lago goes into the race as the fit horse with a few runs under his belt but i think he is outclassed in this field and as a $3.30 favourite there is much better value around other runners in the race.
Big Danger: Mid Summer Music is a quality galloper and Peter Moody should always be respected when he takes one to Sydney. Despite having to carry 59kg he looks very well suited in the race.
Roughie: Bagman will be making his racecourse return after a very consistant preparation last time out and at $15 he looks a good each way bet has he goes quite well first up.
$250 Julienas Free Bet
Race Six: Chipping Norton Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Last years winner Shoot Out looks well placed in this race again and he looks the best of the favourites in the race and is the horse to beat for mine. Should get a great position from barrier two and be very hard to hold off.
Don’t Back Me: Manighar will have to overcome barrier 14 with 59kg if he is to win the Chipping Norton Stakes. He was disappointing over Spring and even though i think he can win the race if he has returned to his best i think he is a big risk at the odds.
Big Danger: Silent Achiever was very impressive first up in NZ when carrying 61kg and drops 4kg for this run. She will get a very easy run from barrier one and if she gets a little bit of luck has the weight advantage to run over them in the final 50m.
Roughie: Like with most Group 1 races there is always some good value and this race is no different i think Kelinni should be a lot shorter than what he is and he definitely needs to be included in your quaddies and multiples.
$250 Shoot Out Free Bet
Race Seven: Surround Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Dear Demi ran very well first up and always runs a lot better second up in her preparations. She has the class advantage over the field and at the odds between her and Bennetta she provides better value.
Don’t Back Me: Driefontein has been around the mark this preparation but hasn’t fired. Runs against horses who have beaten her fair and square and i cant see her turning the tables.
Big Danger: Bennetta looks the horse to beat in the field and continues to get better and better each run. She carries the same weight as Dear Demi and has to overcome barrier 12 which may post her three wide which is why i think at the odds Dear Demi is a better bet but i dont see anything beaten these two.
Roughie: Jade Marauder goes well second up and will get an easy run from barrier 1 expect to see her finishing the race off with Benetta but at much better odds.
$250 Dear Demi Free Bet
Race Eight: Resources Inc. Handicap 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Didntcostalot has been racing against some very good horses and he finds a much easier task here and is at very backable odds of $4.60.
Don’t Back Me: I think the bookmakers have got this race spot on with the odds which is why ive found it hard to say a horse can’t win. Amongst the favourites though i think the horse with the worst chance of winning is Uate but by all means he can still win.
Big Danger: Didntcostalot has been racing against some very good horses and he finds a much easier task here and is at very backable odds of $4.60.
Roughie: Title will have to carry 64kg but he is the class horse of the race by a long way and at $15 im willing to risk that he can carry the weight.
$250 Didntcostalot Free Bet
Best Bet: Streama i think is the best bet of the day at Warwick Farm and is still at very good odds for a horse of her quality in a race the should suit her perfectly.
Next Best: Sticking with the females as my best bets today with Dear Demi being my second best of the day. I think she should be a lot shorten than what she is with a lot of money coming for Benetta. It looks a race of two one at $2.30 the other at $5.50 and the latter will be carrying mine.
Best Roughie: My best roughie of the day was scratched in the Chipping Norton Stakes but i have found a replacement in Julienas who goes around in the Liverpool City Cup at double figure odds. Looks very hard to beat in this race so be sure to have an each way ticket on him.
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