Saturday racing in Melbourne heads back to Flemington, where the feature race is the $150,000 Group lll Aurie’s Star Handicap (1200m). The race has attracted a quality field, headed by Group l winners Tiger Tees and import Crackerjack King, who makes his debut for the Hayes/Daberning team and Australian Bloodstock.
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Race One: Dean Palmby & Scott Millson Handicap (90) 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in Fab Fevola (Best Odds: $8.00).He only knows one way to run and that is flat out fast, as we have seen recently when he has raced over this track/distance, showing dazzling early speed to lead his rivals and looking home, only to be nutted in the last hop or two. He is showing a real liking when racing here, and getting down in the weights will see him prove hard to catch. If you do back, hold your breath the last 100m.
Big Danger: Couldn’t Agreemore (Best Odds: $4.40) is the big watch horse here. He is a talented gelding resuming for Phillip Stokes and to be ridden by Dominic Tourneur. That combination won the Adelaide premiership last season and have been lethal when venturing to Melbourne, and this horse certainly looks capable given how well he trialled recently back home. Lethal horse fresh and was competitive at stakes level on this track in the Autumn.
Roughie: Kristy Lee (Best Odds: $8.50) was dreadful as a heavily backed favourite last time out at Caulfield, but she got out the back and never look comfortable racing around the Heath for the first time. Gets back to the track she is trained at, finds a weak race and the smaller field suits, so don’t be surprised to see her bounce back.
$500 Fab Fevola Free Bet
Race Two: Betty Morgan & Gregory Nugent Handicap (90) 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Sticking solid with Count Encosta (Best Odds: $3.60). When with Patinack, he was a real battler despite good signs early on his career. Now with Weir, he won his opening two runs under the care of the gun trainer, sprouting wings to win first up at Echuca, then backing up that win with another at Warrnambool. He then went to the Valley last week and never travelled at any stage of the race until he got balanced in the straight and absolutely savaged the line late for second. Up to 2000m and getting onto a bigger track, along with dropping in weight, should see him take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Eclair Samba (Best Odds: $2.70) was well tried in the market when racing over this track/distance three weeks back, and looked the winner on the turn, but couldn’t withstand the finish of Backbone, who backed that win up with a dominant victory last weekend. Drops in class and only goes up a kilo, plus Tourneur jumps back on.
Roughie: Kenjorwood (Best Odds: $6.50) has been quite solid this time in for Peter Moody, running well at the provincials, placing twice from three outings with a win wedged in between. Savaged the line late at Sale, and is crying out for 2000m, which he gets here. Tumbles in weight and has performed very well here in the past, so don’t pay attention to the zero from two record at Flemington.
$500 Count Encosta Free Bet
Race Three: Trevor Dray & William Nield Handicap (84) 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Reckless Assassin (Best Odds: $3.20) had the charmed run behind a hot speed in that race mentioned above, and when young Regan Bayliss peeled her out, all he had to do was count to 10 and let her down, and after that happened, she bolted in. The gun run she had probably flatters the dominance of the win, so that’s the concern, but all you can do is win and that’s what she did.
Big Danger: Anfitriona (Best Odds: $3.40) takes on the older mares for the first time after finishing her three year old career with a strong win against the boys over 1800m at Caulfield a fortnight back. Looks as if she’ll handle 2000m with a cold ride and is a mare in form.
Roughie: Miss Matty (Best Odds: $51.00) has teased me a bit in recent outings, getting out the back and running on very late to finish just behind the placegetters. Two wins from 23 outings isn’t overly encouraging, but a firmer track, a good gate, and a light weight could spark improvement.
$500 Reckless Assassin Free Bet
Race Four: Joyann Erskine & Phillip Carroll Handicap (70) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in Beluga Caviar (Best Odds: $8.50). She made her debut here three weeks ago down the straight and showed good early speed to hold the front, and comfortably. She was joined in the lead 400m and was a beaten horse after that, but he toughed it out quite strongly for third. He has a stack of upside, and I’d love to see him ridden with cover, because given his inexperience, I think he needs a bunny to chase.
Big Danger: Raposo (Best Odds: $8.50) was a dominant debut winner at Mildura, then came here and ran in the race mentioned above. He had the gun run behind the top tip, and got the dream split 300m out, where he looked the winner, only for Tan Tat Diamond to swoop down the outside and nail him late. A bit like Beluga Caviar, he’d be better off chasing, and from the wide draw, that should eventuate.
Roughie: Dupe ‘Em (Best Odds: $9.00) showed solid grit to win on debut at Sportingbet Park, then contested the same race the other two ran in and was quite solid late, working home for fourth, beaten just under a length. 1400m looks ideal and the Waller camp can do no wrong at the moment, especially in Melbourne.
$500 Beluga Caviar Free Bet
Race Five: Philip Hogan & Olga Nield Handicap (78) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Tricky race to sort out. Once again, the miracle worker Darren Weir has another rejuvenated galloper lining up here, this time in the shape of Clevadude (Best Odds: $3.65). When with Rick Hore-Lacy, the horse struggled to run out the 955m at the Valley. First up for Weir, he blew them away over 1200m at Warracknabeal, showing a sharp turn of foot to win with plenty in reserve. The ability is there, and now he might just be starting to realise it.
Big Danger: Marwood (Best Odds: $5.00) was a super winner fresh at Seymour in a hot race, then went to Sportingbet Park, and on face value, he was disappointing when a battling third to Olivier. Perhaps the second up syndrome and being anchored with the weight on a shifty track at city level brought about his undoing, so I’ll forgive him for that and rate him a serious threat here.
Roughie: Taddei Tondo (Best Odds: $12.00) just failed to pick up Play Master two back at Sportingbet Park, then raced there again and just felt the weight where it mattered and tired to run fourth. Much needed weight relief here after the claim, drawn the right part of the track and is rock hard fit, so don’t rule her out.
$500 Clevadude Free Bet
Race Six: Jacinta Nugent & Lesley Millson Handicap 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Strong race to kick off the quaddie. Sticking solid with Loot ‘N’ Run (Best Odds: $6.00). He came back to Melbourne after two Sydney outings, finishing fourth on both occasions. He was quite good there and was far from disgraced. He then went to Caulfield and sat behind the speed before getting clear and sticking on okay for fourth to Pillar Of Creation. That isn’t his go. He prefers to run along under his own steam, and that’s what he did last time out here, only to be nutted in the last hop by our Big Danger. With a senior ride aboard now, that result could be reversed here.
Big Danger: Free Of Doubt (Best Odds: $6.00) didn’t do much in two runs this time in, then was aggressively ridden by Newitt here three weeks ago, and it paid dividends when he wore down Loot ‘N’ Run and grab victory in the last stride. He draws inside that horse now, so it’ll be interesting to see what eventuates here, but those two look the clear pair to beat.
Roughie: Keep a watch on Jacquinot Bay (Best Odds: $4.80), who resumes now for the Hayes/Dabernig yard after formerly being with Guy Walter. His form from the Autumn was very strong in good races and he was more than competitive. Goes very well fresh and loves a firm track, which he gets here.
$500 Loot ‘N’ Run Free Bet
Race Seven: Aurie’s Star Handicap 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Sino Eagle (Best Odds: $6.00) has been a beauty for Peter Moody and her connections. Very rarely does she run a bad race…all she needs now is blacktype, and based on her dominant first up win at Caulfield, she gets her chance here to do just that. Drawn the right part of the track, great record second up, at the track and at 1200m…she ticks all the boxes.
Big Danger: Tiger Tees (Best Odds: $3.50) is the clear class runner given just five months ago, he won the Group l Galaxy at Rosehill. He then placed behind Lankan Rupee and Hana’s Goal at Group l level before failing in Brisbane, so his form reads very well for a race like this and is an absolute bomb when produced fresh.
Roughie: Shanghai Warrior (Best Odds: $6.00) has been very good since returning from injury, placing three times from as many runs this time in, all of which have been down the Flemington straight, the latest of which came in the All Victorian Sprint Final when working to the line late for third to Nearest To Pin, who then went on to place in the Bletchingley. Gets a great chance to return to the winners list.
$500 Sino Eagle Free Bet
Race Eight: David Christopher & Joan Walker Handicap (84) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Girls On Film (Best Odds: $9.00) caught the eye first up at Sale, then went to the midweeks at Caulfield and looked to be in big trouble on the turn, but picked up late and ran on for third. She is hard to follow, but when switched on, she is a city class horse, so from the good draw, and along with Bossy sticking, she gets her chance I feel in an even race.
Big Danger: Nadeem Lass (Best Odds: $4.80) covered extra ground when racing here a month back over this distance, yet loomed big time as they straightened but couldn’t quite peg back Atlantis Dream in a close finish. Again drawn wide, but she has proven she can handle doing some work in the run yet find in the straight.
Roughie: Danish Whiskey (Best Odds: $12.00) is one of those mares who will lose more often than win due to her racing pattern of getting back and running on, which means she’ll usually get more bad luck than good, but she has caught the eye in three runs back this time in, and I think getting back to Flemington in a weak mares race sees her get her chance to win.
$500 Girls On Film Free Bet
Race Nine: David Kiernan & James Miller Handicap (90) 1700m: Form Guide
Back Me: Amovatio (Best Odds: $3.80) hasn’t had a great deal of luck in two runs in the bleak city. He was most unlucky, and perhaps poorly ridden behind Jessy Belle, then took his time to wind up late when third to Baron Archer. Senior rider now, bigger track, up in distance and still appears to have some upside.
Big Danger: Wrotham Heath (Best Odds: $3.80) kicks off his Spring campaign after being freshened up after his strong all the way win here in mid June. Normally fitness would be an issue for a horse resuming over 1700m, but he looked very sharp in a recent Cranbourne trial win. Handy horse who looks well placed.
Roughie: One to watch here at odds is Vizhaka (Best Odds: $12.00). I think there has been merit in both runs this time in, behind good company at this track, without much luck. He draws the paint now, should be much closer to the tempo, and in a tricky race, he could be the knockout horse at massive odds.
$500 Amovatio Free Bet
BEST BET: Race Two Number 45 Count Encosta
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 10 Sino Eagle
VALUE: Race One Number 3 Fab Fevola
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 5, 7
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 7, 10
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 10, 12, 14
Leg Four: 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13
$50 Investment = 7.93% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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